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South Alabama vs Georgia Southern Odds, Picks: Why to Bet This Over

South Alabama vs Georgia Southern Odds, Picks: Why to Bet This Over article feature image
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Bobby McDuffie/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: South Alabama running back La’Damian Webb.

South Alabama vs Georgia Southern Odds

Saturday, Nov. 5
4 p.m. ET
ESPN+
South Alabama Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-4
-110
60.5
-110o / -110u
-175
Georgia Southern Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+4
-110
60.5
-110o / -110u
+145
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

After dropping the Battle for the Belt against Troy, South Alabama probably has to win out, and get help, to have a chance at playing in the Sun Belt Championship game. Kane Wommack has the Jaguars 6-2 in his second season in Mobile.

He’ll be opposed by another coach doing a phenomenal job turning around a program. Clay Helton took over a 3-9 team that ran the triple-option and has turned them into an Air Raid team with a 5-3 record and one of the country’s best offenses.

Both of these teams cleared their preseason win totals before we hit Halloween. They have each been covering machines as South Alabama is 5-3 against the spread and Georgia Southern is 6-2. The Eagles are 3-0 at home both against the spread and straight up.

But is a side the best way to attack this game, or is it better to look at the total?


South Alabama Jaguars

Balance has been the key for the South Alabama offense this season. The Jaguars rank 43rd with 34.5 pass attempts per game and 54th with 37.6 rushing attempts per game. The Jaguars have scored 14 passing touchdowns and have added 15 rushing scores.

They have had the most success through the air as Carter Bradley and the passing game are 28th in Passing Success Rate. The rushing attack hasn’t been as successful, but La’Damian Webb can hit some home runs and helps South Alabama sit among the top 25 in rushing explosiveness.

South Alabama’s defense ranks 11th in Success Rate and is one of just 15 teams holding its opponents under 300 yards per game.

Much like the offense, this defense is well-balanced. The Jaguars rank in the top 25 in Success Rate defending both the run and the pass, as well as with their coverage and tackling grades.

South Alabama is strong up front with CJ Rias and Jamie Sheriff, in the middle with James Miller and Trey Kiser and on the backend with Yam Banks and Darrell Luter Jr.

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Georgia Southern Eagles

What Helton has been able to do with this offense in one year has been remarkable.

We have seen his brother have success with the Air Raid at Western Kentucky, and the Helton family continues to roll out dominant offenses. This completely revamped offense is 20th in scoring and 11th in the country in average yards per game (494.5).

Quarterback Kyle Vantrease has led an offense that throws the ball at the 15th-highest rate of any team and they have had a ton of success. Khaleb Hood, Derwin Burgess, Jeremy Singleton and Amare Jones are all averaging over 60 yards per game and give the Eagles a ton of weapons to get the ball to.

DERWIN. BURGESS. JR. FOR THE LEAD!!!

Georgia Southern has undefeated James Madison on the ROPES 🥊pic.twitter.com/BGEH20FX8I

— The Transfer Portal CFB (@TPortalCFB) October 15, 2022

However, defense has been a big issue for the Eagles as they’ve been torched for 480.9 yards per game this year (127th in the country). Part of that has been the offense’s pace, but they have also really struggled with tackling.

The Eagles have been especially bad against the run and get pushed around up front. Teams have run for nearly 5.8 yards per carry on this defense, which ranks 127th in Line Yards. They don’t really create any Havoc either.


South Alabama vs Georgia Southern Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how South Alabama and Georgia Southern match up statistically:

South Alabama Offense vs. Georgia Southern Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 118 104
Line Yards 101 127
Pass Success 28 86
Pass Blocking** 49 70
Havoc 28 104
Finishing Drives 67 50
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Georgia Southern Offense vs. South Alabama Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 66 21
Line Yards 83 42
Pass Success 16 14
Pass Blocking** 42 26
Havoc 4 40
Finishing Drives 29 7
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 18 119
PFF Coverage 21 71
SP+ Special Teams 35 90
Seconds per Play 26.4 (72) 22.1 (9)
Rush Rate 52.2% (73) 40.8% (127)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

South Alabama vs Georgia Southern Betting Pick

Georgia Southern has been able to totally revamp its offense and find immediate success. A triple-option team a year ago, the Eagles now rank fourth in the league in passing and run their offense at a top-10 pace in the country.

Vantrease does a great job distributing the football to all his weapons on the outside and when they do run the ball, they have been really good at picking up explosive plays.

South Alabama has a terrific defense but has been able to pad the stats against some really bad offenses. The Jaguars held Nicholls State to seven points, Louisiana Tech to 14, Louisiana to 17, Arkansas State to three and played a 10-6 rock fight against Troy.

But they are beatable. Central Michigan’s offense is a mess and they put up 24 points against the Jaguars. UL Monroe put up 34 points and threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 7.6 yards per play.

Georgia Southern’s defense has been beaten by everybody. They’re giving up yards on the ground and through the air and this balanced South Alabama offense is good enough to take advantage and do some damage.

If this spread got to three I would probably consider South Alabama. However, I think 60.5 is too low considering how good this Georgia Southern offense has been, and how bad its defense has been. Both teams should reach the 30s here.

Pick: Over 60.5 ⋅ Play to 63

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