College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for SMU vs. Navy: Mustangs Have Been Money in This Spot

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for SMU vs. Navy: Mustangs Have Been Money in This Spot article feature image
Credit:

Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Tanner Mordecai.

  • No. 24 SMU puts its undefeated record on the line when it takes on Navy on the road.
  • The Mustangs have hit five straight overs as a road favorite, while the Midshipmen have hit eight of the last 11 overs as a home dog.
  • Alex Kolodziej previews the game and offers up his best bet.

SMU vs. Navy Odds

SMU Odds -13.5 (-110)
Navy Odds +13.5 (-110)
Moneyline -590 / +425
Over/Under 56.5 (-110 / -110)
Time 3:30 p.m. ET
TV CBS Sports Network
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

No. 23 SMU might actually cash its win total (6.5) before October ends. Is that good?

Few mid-majors are rolling quite like the Mustangs, who officially entered the Top 25 with a rout of South Florida last Saturday. Sonny Dykes’ club has now started 5-0 in each of the past three seasons.

However, there’s usually an obstacle littered somewhere in the middle of the schedule to derail SMU down the stretch, which makes the road trip to Navy in Week 6 an important spot for the Mustangs.

The Midshipmen were on the cusp of an 0-4 start, before ripping off 17 straight fourth-quarter points to upset Central Florida as 14.5-point ‘dogs last weekend.

Is there enough left in the tank for a second straight shocker?


SMU vs. Navy Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 9
3:30 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network

Southern Methodist Mustangs

SMU Offense

SMU failed to total more than 500 yards last week for the first time all season, yet the Mustangs put up 41 points with relative ease. It’s been seemingly unfair from the start.

The Mustangs are as balanced as they come, running a 50-50 split between pass- and rush-play frequency. However, the aerial assault will be on display Saturday.

Oklahoma transfer quarterback Tanner Mordecai’s leading the second-ranked unit in yards per game (543.2), behind only Ohio State. His cupboard is stocked, featuring three receivers with at least 20 catches, 265 yards and three receiving touchdowns.

It’s the most successful passing offense in the entire country, and the unit is making opponents pay, ranking third nationally in Finishing Drives.


SMU Defense

Due to how frequent — and fast — SMU puts up points, it oftentimes puts the defense behind the eight-ball.

Dykes would be content with employing a middle-of-the-pack defense once the curtain closes on the season; you don’t need to be perfect when your offense scores close to 40 points per game.

However, Navy’s intricate triple-option scheme is the ultimate test of a defense’s discipline.

If SMU, which is dead-last nationally in tackling, doesn’t wrap up, it’ll be chasing down Midshipmen running backs down the field all day.

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Navy Midshipmen

Navy Offense

Nothing has changed for head coach Ken Niumatalolo. He’s third in the country in rush-play percentage (81.4%), behind the two fellow service academies.

The Midshipmen averaged just 10 points per game through the first weeks. They finally woke up late in last week’s upset against Central Florida, scoring half their 34 points in the fourth quarter.

Navy put up a season-high 37 points in last year’s matchup against SMU. Ironically, the passing game did the bulk of the damage, clearing 239 of the offense’s 430 total yards.


Navy Defense 

Navy has no other choice but to play a bend-don’t-break style defense this week. It’s consistently getting torched through the air, allowing opposing quarterbacks to chew up 13.7 yards per pass on a 61.4% completion rate.

Saturday’s draw is as brutal as it gets.

Mordecai’s in a league of his own. His 24 touchdown passes are five more than the next-closest quarterback, alongside a completion percentage north of 70%.

Plus, SMU is the only team in the nation yet to allow a sack. Expect Mordecai’s jersey to stay stain-free against a non-existent Navy pass rush.


SMU vs. Navy Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how SMU and Navy match up statistically:

SMU Offense vs. Navy Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
41
76
Line Yards
14
89
Pass Success
1
18
Pass Blocking**
37
121
Big Play
16
84
Havoc
11
98
Finishing Drives
3
20
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Navy Offense vs. SMU Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
34
70
Line Yards
57
24
Pass Success
129
95
Pass Blocking**
130
10
Big Play
118
81
Havoc
116
92
Finishing Drives
116
72
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling
130
81
PFF Coverage
122
130
Middle 8
6
92
SP+ Special Teams
122
118
Plays per Minute
23
115
Rush Rate
51.4% (85)
86.4% (3)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


SMU vs. Navy Betting Pick

I don’t agree with the total moving below 56.

Central Florida put up 30 points on the road without its starting quarterback last week, and it should have been more, if not for two fumbles inside Navy territory in the fourth.

Neither team punts (SMU averages 3.8 per game, Navy 4.5) nor gets after the quarterback. Tackling? It may as well be optional.

SMU has been money in this spot, ripping off five straight overs as a road favorite. Navy, meanwhile, has lit up the scoreboard as a home ‘dog, hitting eight of the last 11 overs in those situations.

This is the best number we’ll get on an SMU total all year — and one the offense can probably smash itself if everything goes right.

Pick: Over 55.5 (Play to 56)

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