College Football Odds, Predictions, Picks for South Alabama vs. Texas State: Betting Value on This Over/Under

College Football Odds, Predictions, Picks for South Alabama vs. Texas State: Betting Value on This Over/Under article feature image
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  • South Alabama and Texas State will take part in a Sun Belt matchup on Saturday night.
  • The Jaguars enter a favorites in this one, but Keg sees the betting value on the total.
  • Check out Keg's full betting guide with college football odds & picks below.

South Alabama vs. Texas State Odds

South Alabama Odds -4 (+100)
Texas State Odds +4 (-120)
Moneyline -165 / +145
Over/Under 52.5 (-105 / -115)
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

In Week 6, the South Alabama Jaguars hit the road riding high with a 3-1 record. They should be 4-0, though.

Last week, the Jaguars had a 36-yard field goal to take the lead with a minute left. They missed the field goal and lost the game — a tough loss for anyone who had a USA +350 moneyline ticket (me).

This week, they look to get a win on the road against Texas State, which comes off a blowout loss to Eastern Michigan last week, 59-21. It’s been a tough start to the season for Texas State (1-3) as it is struggling on both sides of the ball.

Will the Bobcats be able to step up in their first conference game of the year as a home dog? Or are they overmatched against this South Alabama team?


South Alabama vs. Texas State Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 9
7 p.m. ET
ESPN+

South Alabama Jaguars

South Alabama Offense

The Jaguars head into Texas State with a lot to work on after losing a game they had multiple opportunities to win last week. But after Saturday’s game, first-year head coach Kane Wommack said that the second half of the Louisiana game was the best football he’s seen this team play.

And that’s the first major problem for these Jaguars. They’ve consistently started slow.

The Jaguars have gone 3-and-out on their first possession of every game, while also trailing in the second quarter of every game so far.

These first-half struggles should improve, as most have been the result of negative yardage plays, which tend to happen in the first year of a program.

One thing to keep an eye on for Saturday, leading rusher and scorer Kareem Walker sat out last week with a quad injury. Coach Womack said he’s moving in the right direction and could potentially return this week.

As of writing, nothing is confirmed either way on his status, so be sure to look for updates as they are released.

South Alabama is averaging 23.7 points per game on 352 yards. Quarterback Jake Bentley also posts a 67% completion percentage and should be able to take advantage of this Bobcats defense.


South Alabama Defense

So far this season, the Jaguars’ defense is playing at an elite level. Ranking top 20 in passing efficiency, rushing defense, scoring defense and total defense.

However, the most impressive part of this defense may be their ability to get stops when they need them most. The Jaguars lead the country in opponent third-down conversions (19%). Opposing teams only have a red-zone scoring percentage of 66.67% (14th in the country).

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Texas State Bobcats

Texas State Offense

The Bobcats have had an odd start to the season, one that brings back memories of last year for many teams.

After covering and keeping things close against Baylor and FIU, the Bobcats have had more than 12 players miss time due to COVID-19 protocols. But coming off an open week, most players should be cleared and return Saturday.

While they are getting a lot of players back who have missed their last two games, I don’t think it will be enough to matter against the Jaguars.

The Texas State offense is only converting 29% of third downs, an area where South Alabama thrives, which should be evident in this game. They rank outside the top 75 teams in passing, rushing and total yards per game.


Texas State Defense

Just like the offense, the Bobcats defense will return some players from COVID-19 protocols this week. But again, I don’t think it will change much against a Jaguars team averaging 352 yards per game.

The Texas State defense hasn’t been great at limiting passing, but they’ve been awful against the rush, allowing 4.9 yards per run and 208 rush yards per game.

Texas State is surrendering 35 points per game and 429 yards. If it can stop the passing attack, it may slow down South Alabama. However, this defense may need a miracle to stop them completely.


South Alabama vs. Texas State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how South Alabama and Texas State match up statistically:

South Alabama Offense vs. Texas State Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 81 113
Line Yards 73 21
Pass Success 83 58
Pass Blocking** 118 120
Big Play 97 115
Havoc 93 90
Finishing Drives 119 65
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Texas State Offense vs. South Alabama Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 70 1
Line Yards 12 129
Pass Success 64 115
Pass Blocking** 46 52
Big Play 101 58
Havoc 115 55
Finishing Drives 114 4
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 104 126
PFF Coverage 31 120
Middle 8 33 124
SP+ Special Teams 55 81
Plays per Minute 92 17
Rush Rate 56.3% (55) 52.6% (76)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


South Alabama vs. Texas State Betting Pick

It is plain and simple: South Alabama is a better team.

The Jaguars outmatch this Texas State team in nearly every facet. But I’m hesitant to take South Alabama this week, as getting 95% of the bets and 98% of the money is never something you want to see.

Texas State is trying to get its season back on track to start conference play, with more than a dozen players returning to the team. And in South Alabama’s first road game this year, it looked awful against Bowling Green.

I’m more confident taking the over in this game. Whether South Alabama blows Texas State out or the Bobcats can keep up with the Jags, I think they surpass the total of 53 in this game.

Pick: Over 52.5 (Play to 55)

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