TCU vs. Oklahoma State Odds & Picks: The Spread Bet to Make for Saturday’s College Football Game (November 13)

TCU vs. Oklahoma State Odds & Picks: The Spread Bet to Make for Saturday’s College Football Game (November 13) article feature image
Credit:

Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Evans.

  • The line in TCU vs. Oklahoma State has been moving toward the Horned Frogs.
  • Updated odds now make TCU only 11.5-point underdogs after opening at nearly two touchdowns.
  • Doug Ziefel explains how to bet this Big 12 battle below.

TCU vs. Oklahoma State Odds

Saturday, Nov. 13
8 p.m. ET
FOX
TCU Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+11.5
-110
54
-105o / -115u
+360
Oklahoma State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-11.5
-110
54.5
-105o / -115u
-490
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

TCU played with a ton of heart in its upset victory over Baylor last week. Gary Patterson’s departure may have put a spark into this program. The only question is, can they do it again?

This week’s task will be just as tall for TCU as it travels to Stillwater to face the 10th-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Cowboys have been rolling over their past two games as they’ve outscored their opponents 79-6 during that span.

With their string of impressive performances, they soon have a date with the Sooners that may have conference title implications. That matchup is looming, but could it cause them to overlook the Horned Frogs?


TCU Horned Frogs

Big Changes Make Big Differences

Jerry Kill taking over for Patterson wasn’t the only major change TCU had last Saturday. Freshman Chandler Morris made his first career start and boy did he seize the moment.

Morris completed nearly 71 percent of his passes while accumulating 461 yards. And with the team suffering through injuries at running back, Morris added 70 yards rushing and a score. He displayed his legit dual-threat ability on this run:

Chandler Morris is doing HP stuff at TCU.

(🎥 via @DerekDuke25).pic.twitter.com/PpWMEkRjTU

— Joseph Hoyt (@JoeJHoyt) November 6, 2021

Morris also showed the ability to spread the ball around as he connected with 10 different receivers on the day.

This matchup will be the second and biggest test of his young career. Going on the road against this vaunted Oklahoma State defense is a challenge for any quarterback.

The Cowboys have held opponents to just 16.4 points per game this season. They allow the third-lowest yards per game as well as the fifth-lowest yards per play. This unit also does exceedingly well at not allowing big plays and getting off the field on third down, ranking first in both.

While all those numbers are extraordinary, there is one area where the Cowboys can be targeted. They are 59th in Passing Success Allowed and also allow opposing quarterbacks to complete more than 60 percent of their passes.

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Oklahoma State Cowboys

Run Warren Run

Utah State transfer Jaylen Warren has been a godsend for Oklahoma State, putting together a season that is worthy of national recognition. He’s rushed for 928 yards at nearly five yards per carry with seven scores.

Warren has also shown that he can raise his game against high-level competition as he has rushed for at least 123 yards in games against ranked opponents.

He has also had his share of highlight plays like this one earlier this season against Tulsa:

Jaylen Warren HOW pic.twitter.com/VyQptBkm55

— Pistols Firing (@pistolsguys) September 11, 2021

Now, I can give Warren all the love he deserves, but what matters is what he is going to do against TCU this week. All signs point to him having another big game.

The Horned Frogs’ defense has been especially bad against the run. They are 118th in opponent yards per rush, 120th in Rushing Success Allowed, and 122nd in Defensive Line Yards.

Warren gets all the attention from opposing defenses, so this could be the matchup where quarterback Spencer Sanders succeeds. TCU is 125th in opponents yards per pass completion and 93rd in opponent completion percentage. Those numbers are a direct result of their secondary’s coverage ranking of 118.


TCU vs. Oklahoma State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how TCU and Oklahoma State match up statistically:

TCU Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 41 12
Line Yards 71 4
Pass Success 25 59
Pass Blocking** 5 39
Big Play 59 1
Havoc 63 21
Finishing Drives 95 11
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Oklahoma State Offense vs. TCU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 96 120
Line Yards 105 122
Pass Success 40 99
Pass Blocking** 36 83
Big Play 67 115
Havoc 73 120
Finishing Drives 61 115
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 124 73
Coverage 118 12
Middle 8 94 22
SP+ Special Teams 73 58
Plays per Minute 76 52
Rush Rate 58.8% (39) 60.4% (25)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


TCU vs. Oklahoma State Betting Pick

Even though this may appear to be a big mismatch on paper, it is the intangible factors that will keep TCU in this game. TCU’s defense may have performed uncharacteristically poor under Patterson this season, but Patterson’s departure lit a fire under them.

This team is playing inspired as they know they have the talent to represent their former coach well. Add that into Oklahoma State potentially looking ahead to the Big 12 title game and you have a nice spot for Horned Frogs.

Catching almost two touchdowns is tremendous value in this spot. Our PRO Projections have this line around 10. The market has begun to come in on the Horned Frogs as this number has started to tick down. I grabbed this number at 13.5 and would not play it much lower.

Pick: TCU +13.5 (Play to 12.5)

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