Texas vs. TCU Betting Odds, Picks: Target the Total in Saturday’s In-State Big 12 Game (October 2)
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Texas vs. TCU Odds
|Moneyline||-180 / +155|
|Over/Under||65.5 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||12 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.|
The Texas Longhorns look to build off back-to-back 50-point performances when they travel to Fort Worth to take on TCU.
After losing to Arkansas in Week 2, Texas has completely flipped the script, scoring 128 points against Rice and Texas Tech the past two weeks.
The main reason for the offensive explosion is because Steve Sarkisian made a switch to Casey Thompson at quarterback, which has paid huge dividends. However, this will be Thompson’s first-career road start and Texas is in a lookahead spot with the Red River Rivalry next weekend against Oklahoma.
TCU suffered its first loss of the season last week, losing 42-34 at home to SMU.
The Horned Frogs were a dark horse to win the Big 12 this season with their starting quarterback Max Duggan back under center and over 80% of their production returning on both sides of the ball, according to TARP.
TCU has had Texas’ number in this rivalry, as the Horned Frogs have won six of the last seven meetings against the Longhorns.
Texas vs. TCU Betting Preview
The switch to Thompson has been an unbelievable move by Sarkisian.
In Thompson’s two starts against Texas Tech and Rice, he’s averaging 10.3 yards per attempt and has helped the offense gain a whopping 9.18 yards per play.
Casey Thompson ➡️ Xavier Worthy
All is well for Sark's Texas team it seems pic.twitter.com/t9WVAO8pwA
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) September 25, 2021
It’s not all Thompson, though, as the rushing attack with Bijan Robinson has been lighting up opposing defenses. Robinson is gaining 6.2 yards per carry on the season and already has 11 rushes over 10 yards.
He’s led the Longhorns’ rushing attack as it ranks 21st in Rushing Success Rate and 18th in Offensive Line Yards.
— Bleacher Report CFB (@BR_CFB) September 25, 2021
Texas might have to lean on the run game a lot on Saturday because there’s currently a 50% chance of rain in Corpus Christi.
Another big distinct advantage Texas will have on offense is explosive plays. The Longhorns rank 16th in big plays, while TCU is one of the worst defenses in the country at giving up big plays, ranking 126th.
Even though they pitched a shutout against Rice, the Longhorns’ defense hasn’t been great this season.
They’re allowing 6.1 yards per play — which is 95th in the country — and rank 117th in Success Rate allowed.
There are plenty of problems in both the secondary and in the front seven for new defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski.
The secondary was torched last weekend by Texas Tech — even though Tyler Shough got hurt in the first half — as it allowed a whopping 11.4 yards per attempt. The Longhorns rank 124th in Passing Success Rate allowed, so Duggan is likely going to have a field day on Saturday.
The front seven was good against Texas Tech last weekend — allowing the Red Raiders only 3.9 yards per carry — but Texas Tech was missing its top running back.
If we go back to the Arkansas game, Texas allowed the Razorbacks to gain a whopping 7.1 yards per rush.
Guess what? TCU is probably going to do the same thing to them because the Horned Frogs gained 4.5 yards per rush on them last season and rank 17th in Offensive Line Yards this year.
The Horned Frogs’ offense revolves around Duggan, who’s now in his third season as the starting quarterback.
Duggan has been pretty poor through his first three games, though, as he’s earned a 62.7 passing grade with seven big-time throws and five turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.
However, he’s still throwing for 9.2 yards per attempt and TCU is running the ball 55.56% of the time this season.
Duggan has fantastic dual-threat ability and actually ran for 79 yards and two touchdowns against Texas last season in their 33-31 upset win.
The rushing attack will be where the Horned Frogs have the most success on Saturday. Even though they lost to SMU, the Horned Frogs still averaged 5.7 yards per carry, which is nothing new considering against Cal, they ran it for 5.4 yards per carry.
The main reason for their rushing success is because of Zach Evans, who ran for over seven yards a carry against both Cal and SMU.
It helps when he’s running behind an incredible offensive line that is 17th in Offensive Line Yards and ranks seventh in terms of run blocking, per PFF.
The contact balance, the speed, and breaking through arm tackles. In this 2023 class, I’d Zach Evans up there behind Bijan Robinson. The state of Texas has plenty of RBs to watch at the college level. pic.twitter.com/uhDZv5l9e4
— Bo (@PsychoBo15) September 25, 2021
While the Horned Frogs’ offense is getting all of the shine, Gary Patterson is probably fuming at how bad his defense has been through their first three games.
TCU’s front seven can’t stop a nose bleed — let alone the run — as they’re allowing 6.1 yards per rush and allowed SMU to put up 350 yards on the ground last week.
They rank 121st in Rushing Success Rate allowed, 130th in Defensive Line Yards, and 94th in Rushing Explosiveness allowed. Also, they’re not fundamentally sound with a ranking of 124th in tackling, so I have no idea how they’re going to stop Robinson.
The secondary isn’t much better for Patterson, as TCU allowed an unfathomable 10.1 yards per attempt to Cal and SMU the past two weekends.
That has led them to a ranking of 103rd in coverage, 129th in Explosive Passing allowed and 73rd in Passing Success Rate allowed.
— Sideline CFB (@SidelineCFB) September 11, 2021
TCU also hasn’t been able to turn anyone over or put pressure on the quarterback, as they rank 119th in Havoc.
This means Thompson and Robinson should have field day on Saturday.
Texas vs. TCU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas and TCU match up statistically:
Texas Offense vs. TCU Defense
TCU Offense vs. Texas Defense
Pace of Play / Other
This is a matchup between two effective and explosive offenses against two defenses that haven’t been able to stop anything up until this point in the season.
Even with the weather a little questionable with 10-15 mph winds and a 50% chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, these two offenses should have big play after big play, considering both defenses rank outside the top 100 in big plays allowed.
Texas vs. TCU Betting Pick
The total has been moving up and down all week long, getting as low as 64 and as high as 68.5.
Even with the weather a little questionable, I think this total is too low, as I have 81.34 points projected for this game.
Currently, the best price on the over is at BetRivers at 65 with -113 odds. I also would play this total up to 71.