College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Vanderbilt vs. Florida: How Big Will The Gators Win?
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- Looking to rebound from its loss to Kentucky, Florida hosts Vanderbilt in an early afternoon SEC showdown.
- The Commodores have two wins this season -- against Colorado State and UConn -- and are seeking their first SEC victory.
- Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the game and provides his best bet.
Vanderbilt vs. Florida Odds
|Vanderbilt Odds||+39 (-105)|
|Florida Odds||-39 (-115)|
|Over/Under||60 (-110 / -110)|
|Time||12 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.|
Florida suffered a setback to its SEC title chances last week with a road loss in Lexington to Kentucky.
The Gators dropped to 1-2 in conference play and no longer control their own destiny to an SEC East crown. They’ll have no problems with the Commodores, but it’s a difficult sandwich spot between Kentucky last week and LSU next week.
LSU is an annual SEC rivalry for the Gators and a much more important opponent and game than a Vanderbilt team that barely survived Connecticut last week.
The Commodores have two wins — a stolen game against Colorado State and a last-second victory against UConn — and have otherwise been a disaster under first-year head coach Clark Lea.
Lea is the former defensive coordinator at Notre Dame, but his defense has been terrible this season in almost every metric you could look at.
Anytime you have a favorite as big as Florida, you have to consider the motivation to run up the score. Dan Mullen is notorious for not taking his foot off the gas and running up big numbers. An angry and refocused Gators team coming off a loss could tear up the Commodores.
Vanderbilt vs. Florida Betting Preview
As mediocre as the Gators’ defense has been this season, it’s hard to see how Vanderbilt consistently moves the ball in this game.
The Commodores have no explosiveness whatsoever, ranking 127th in Big Plays and near the bottom of the country in yards per play.
Vanderbilt’s rushing offense has been ineffective and even struggled against UConn, as the Commodores sit 106th in Rushing Success Rate and 116th in Offensive Line Yards.
Rushing inefficiency has turned them into a pass heavy team with one of the higher pass rates in the country. But that hasn’t translated into much offensively.
They couldn’t muster 100 total yards against Georgia, scored three points against East Tennessee State, needed special teams help to get to 24 against Colorado State and won’t be able to finish drives even if they do move the ball.
Vanderbilt is 109th in Finishing Drives and is facing one of the best defenses in the red zone in the country in Florida.
No matter who the opponent is — even a team as good as No. 2 Georgia — conceding 35 points in a quarter is a major red flag.
Vanderbilt’s defense has been a sieve in year one under Lea and while I have optimism about the defense’s long term potential under him, that won’t help them on Saturday.
The Commodores’ run defense is 112th in Rushing Success Rate allowed. PFF grades them out as a terrible tackling unit — ranked 96th — and even worse in coverage at 116th.
Those PFF metrics are a major reason why they allow a ton of explosive plays.
Florida won’t even need to go to the air to generate huge plays and keep the chains moving. Vandy hasn’t been stopping teams from putting up touchdowns either as it ranks 110th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
There was so much optimism for the Gators after they pushed Alabama around in the trench and nearly pulled off the upset as 15-point dogs in the Swamp.
Florida outplayed Alabama that day and a better start to the game or more Anthony Richardson might have produced a win for UF.
But the Gators’ lacking passing success made them ripe for an upset on the road, and Kentucky did exactly that on Saturday.
In this matchup vs. Vandy, though, the Gators have a massive edge in the trench and on the ground. Florida ranks 5th in Rushing Success Rate and 7th in Offensive Line Yards.
The Gators will break open big run after big run as they’re one of the better Big Play offenses at 19th despite a mediocre passing attack.
An effective rushing attack makes them very effective in the red zone too, as Florida is 7th in Finishing Drives.
The defense cost Florida a shot at competing for the College Football Playoff last year, but it has made improvements across the board this season.
It’s still a unit that can be had, however, Vanderbilt is not the team to exploit this at all.
Florida’s biggest defensive improvement has come through its pass rush and given Vandy’s non-existent run offense, it’ll be able to rush quarterback Ken Seals the whole game effectively.
The Gators have the 12th best pass rush in the league and face a bottom 25 pass blocking unit.
Seals has been prone to mistakes — especially when under pressure this year — and generating turnovers will make it even easier for Florida to notch quick scores and get margin.
Despite poor PFF grades in pass coverage and tackling, the Gators’ improved run defense and pass rush should do enough to get Vanderbilt into passing downs and long third downs.
At that point, Vanderbilt may break a play or two, but it is more likely to make mistakes then create explosiveness given the Commodores’ inability to generate big plays against much worse defenses.
Vanderbilt vs. Florida Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Vanderbilt and Florida match up statistically:
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Florida Defense
Florida Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
Pace of Play / Other
Vanderbilt vs. Florida Betting Pick
Emory Jones is still the quarterback for Florida, but Richardson is waiting if this game gets out of hand.
He’s a big asset to the Gators’ explosiveness and ability to get late margin. His numbers — mostly in garbage time against bad teams — have been incredible.
Richardson is a dual-threat player who has produced explosive play after explosive play and really has impressed. He could be the key to getting the cover here as he’s playing to try to take Jones’ job.
Combine this with Mullen’s desire to smash teams and run up the score, and Florida will have plenty of incentive to maul the Commodores on Saturday in the Swamp.
An angry Mullen and a Florida team coming off a loss with a backup quarterback that might be better than the starter and is playing for more reps is a recipe for a blowout.
The Commodores may not allow 35 in the first quarter again but they’re going to struggle to stop Florida throughout the game.