Kent State vs Ohio Odds, Prediction, Pick: College Football Betting Preview for Saturday, Oct. 7
David K Purdy/Getty Images. Pictured: Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke.
Kent State vs Ohio Odds
| Kent State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +1200 |
| Ohio Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -3000 |
MACtion is here in full effect as Kent State travels to Athens, Ohio, for a matchup with the Ohio Bobcats.
Kent State sits 1-4 and is coming off consecutive losses. It's 2-3 against the spread and has gone over the total in three games this season.
Ohio comes into this game riding a four-game winning streak following a loss in its season opener. The Bobcats are 3-2 against the spread, including covers in each of their last three games, and have gone under in every game.
It will be a cool, fall day in Athens. Temperatures will be around 58 degrees during the game as winds will range from 7.5 to 9.4 miles per hour. This will likely impact field position and overall special teams play.
Kenni Burns' debut season as the head coach for the Golden Flashes is off to a bumpy start with just one win in his first five games.
Kent State is averaging 12.6 points per game and 4.3 yards per play while ranking 129th in Success Rate at just 35%. They've struggled to finish drives with an average of 3.15 points per opportunity and a 19% Havoc Rate Allowed.
Purdue transfer Michael Alaimo leads a passing attack that averages 22 attempts and 152.6 yards per game. Alaimo has struggled a bit, completing 56% of his passes for an average of seven yards per attempt with three interceptions and just one touchdown. As a team, the Flashes have a 40% Passing Success Rate.
The running game is the primary focus of the offense, as it runs the ball on 58% of snaps. They average 39.8 attempts per game for an average of 116 rushing yards and one touchdown.
Gavin Garcia leads the team with 337 rushing yards and two touchdowns as the team boasts a 33% Rushing Success Rate, which ranks 129th. Their offensive line creates 2.9 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a Stuff Rate of 16.8%.
As a defense, the Flashes give up 34.0 points per game and 6.2 yards per play. They allow a 45% Success Rate and allow 5.4 explosive plays per game. They generate Havoc on just 14% of plays, which has played a part in their 4.62 points allowed per opportunity.
Tim Albin has the Bobcats off to a strong 4-1 start following a 10-4 2022 campaign. The Bobs are averaging 21.0 points per game and 4.8 yards per play with a 42% Success Rate and a mark of 2.9 points per opportunity.
Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been injured for portions of the beginning of the season, but he's back as the leader of the offense. Rourke is completing 64% of his passes for an average of seven yards per attempt with five touchdowns and two interceptions. As a team, the Bobcats own a Passing Success Rate of 45% and average 2.6 passes of 20-plus yards per game.
Even with the experienced Rourke under center, Ohio is a run-first offense, averaging 39 rush attempts per game. Sieh Bangura and O'Shaan Allison lead the attack with over 65 rush attempts. Bangura has 287 rushing yards, while Allison has run for 212.
The Bobs have a 41% Rushing Success Rate as a team, while the line generates 3.2 Line Yards per attempt and allows a 15.4% Stuff Rate.
Defense is the strength of this Ohio team, as it gives up just 10.8 points per game and 4.3 yards per play. Most notably, it allows just 1.74 points per opportunity, which ranks second nationally, and generates Havoc on 24% of plays, which ranks seventh.
The Bobcats allow a Success Rate of 33% and give up just two explosive plays per game.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kent State and Ohio match up statistically:
Kent State Offense vs. Ohio Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 129 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 112 | 20 | |
| Pass Success | 79 | 47 | |
| Havoc | 121 | 6 | |
| Finishing Drives | 112 | 3 | |
| Quality Drives | 120 | 5 |
Ohio Offense vs. Kent State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 94 | 101 | |
| Line Yards | 51 | 114 | |
| Pass Success | 49 | 127 | |
| Havoc | 73 | 116 | |
| Finishing Drives | 121 | 124 | |
| Quality Drives | 63 | 122 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 124 | 39 |
| PFF Coverage | 119 | 112 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 84 | 131 |
| Middle 8 | 122 | 34 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.6 (92) | 30.3 (122) |
| Rush Rate | 64.4% (18) | 57.2% (33) |
Kent State vs Ohio
Betting Pick & Prediction
The public appears wary of backing the heavy favorite. Approximately 62% of bets and 72% of the money is backing the underdog. However, according to our PRO Report, sharp money has been tracked in favor of the Bobcats.
My lean on the spread is slightly in favor of Kent State and the 26 points, but this isn't my preferred play on the game.
Sharps and money are strongly favoring the under on the total. While only 72% of bets have landed on the under, around 92% of the money has come in on that side.
My preferred play is to back the sharps on the under. Both teams rank outside of the top 90 in terms of pace, and with Ohio as the heavy favorite, its 122nd-ranked pace of play should play a key role.
I'm backing the under at 45.5 and would play it down to 44.5.
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