North Texas vs Navy Odds, Predictions, Picks: Mean Green Won’t Stop Mids

We have a Saturday afternoon college football matchup on deck with the North Texas Mean Green taking on the Navy Midshipmen.

The Midshipmen are 1-3 overall and 0-2 in AAC play.

They lost to Memphis by four points as 12-point dogs and lost to South Florida by two touchdowns as 3.5-point home favorites. They were also demolished by Notre Dame, 42-3.

For a team that returned 17 starters from last year’s squad, that’s a surprising early-season slump.

The Mids should get a big win on the board here. They’re six-point favorites against a North Texas team that can’t stop the run.

As alluded to, the Mean Green can’t stop the rush.

They’re 129th in EPA per Rush Allowed and 125th in Rush Success Rate allowed. They’re allowing almost six yards per carry and have given up 215 rush yards to Louisiana Tech, 223 to FIU and 359 to Cal.

As a result, North Texas is getting shredded in standard downs. Opponents are always ahead of the sticks.

UNT lost two of its three starting linebackers from last year’s squad, including leading tackler KD Davis, who earned first-team Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year honors for the Mean Green last season.

Meanwhile, the defensive line ranks 117th in Line Yards.

So, this team has zero solid run-stoppers.

Also, defensive coordinator Matt Caponi runs a 3-3-5 scheme that’s light in the box and looks to prevent chunk plays. Led by cornerback Ridge Texada, the team is solid in passing downs, but what’s the point if they can’t stop anyone on early downs?

I mean, North Texas allowed 46 points to FIU, which scored a whopping 14 on FCS Maine the week before.

The offense presents more upside.

First-year head coach Eric Morris is a Mike Leach Air-Raid disciple who helped build a dominant FCS offense with Incarnate Ward. North Texas already had skill-position weapons and an experienced offensive line, so Morris picked up former ULM quarterback Chandler Rogers from the portal, the perfect quarterback to run the pass-heavy attack.

So far, Rogers is completing over 60% of his passes for 9.5 adjusted yards per attempt and a 7:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has five big-time throws and three touchdowns on passes 20-plus yards downfield as North Texas ranks 23rd in Explosiveness and 15th in Finishing Drives.

Rogers showed out in wins over Louisiana Tech and Abilene Christian, dropping a combined 638 passing yards with five touchdowns and no picks. The Mean Green scored 85 total points in two wins.

Some of Navy’s season-long numbers are skewed from its pathetic showing against Notre Dame in which it gained 126 rushing yards on 48 attempts. But that’s understandable, given it was Brian Newberry’s head-coaching debut against a dominant Irish front in Dublin.

Outside of that game, the triple-option attack has been fine. The Midshipmen rushed for 261 yards per game at 5.5 YPC in the three games since that abomination and amassed over 400 yards of total offense against both Wagner and Memphis.

And they could’ve easily beaten Memphis. The Mids outgained the Tigers, 432-408, only losing because of two lost fumbles and two failed fourth-down conversions.

Quarterback Seth Henigan saved the day with two late rushing touchdowns to steal a win for Memphis.

And the loss against South Florida doesn’t look that bad, considering the Bulls have significantly exceeded expectations in head coach Alex Golesh’s first year. The Bulls are 3-2 and hung with Alabama for 60 minutes on Sept. 16.

Tai Lavatai has been fine as the starting quarterback, and lead back Daba Fofana has rebounded well from his tough showing against Notre Dame with 5.9 YPC against Memphis and South Florida.

Also, the Mids have installed some RPO elements that played out huge in the Wagner and South Florida games. They averaged 9.1 yards per dropback against the former and 7.5 against the latter.

Backup quarterback Blake Horvath has gotten some good passing looks in the passing game. He’s the more natural thrower, so I hope to see him more in conference play.

The passing defense could be better, but this is still the same elite rush defense we’ve come to expect out of Annapolis.

Again, the numbers are skewed from the Notre Dame game (191 yards on 32 attempts, 6.0 YPC), but it bounced back strong in its next three meetings, including holding Wagner and South Florida to a combined 181 yards at 2.4 YPC.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how North Texas and Navy match up statistically:

North Texas Offense vs. Navy Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	69	99
Line Yards	63	41
Pass Success	59	114
Havoc	43	109
Finishing Drives	15	110
Quality Drives	71	58

Navy Offense vs. North Texas Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	93	121
Line Yards	80	112
Pass Success	133	126
Havoc	46	119
Finishing Drives	125	127
Quality Drives	68	129

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	116	129
PFF Coverage	102	92
Special Teams SP+	36	83
Middle 8	125	102
Seconds per Play	23.8 (16)	30.5 (123)
Rush Rate	53.9% (68)	77.2% (2)

North Texas’ porous 3-3-5 rush defense has no shot against the Navy triple-option. It’s the worst possible schematic matchup for the Mean Green.

Also, Navy is just undervalued. Again, its numbers are deflated from a brutal game against a CFP contender in a tough situation, and its losses to Memphis and South Florida aren’t as bad as originally thought.

The Mids are due for a big win after tough consecutive losses. It’s an excellent buy-low spot.

Meanwhile, North Texas is due for a loss after back-to-back wins over Louisiana Tech and FCS Abilene Christian in which it gave up a combined 68 points. It’s an excellent sell-high spot.

I expect the game script to go like this: The Mids rush for 300 yards and control the ball for 45 minutes in a comfortable win.

North Texas can only win high-scoring affairs given that Rogers is so explosive and the defense is so bad. But this game projects as a rush-heavy, clock-draining, relatively low-scoring grinder dominated by the Mids in standard downs. Our Action PRO model projects the total five points lower (56) than the market (61).

Given that expected game script, I’m betting this game in two ways.

Give me Navy -6 and under 61.