Let's cap off Week 6 with a bang.
Miami travels to Tallahassee to play Florida State, and our staff of college football experts is locked in on that game and many more from now until midnight.
Check out our college football best bets for Week 6 on Saturday, October 4.
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College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
 | Night | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Collin's Card: Evening Best Bet
The key ingredient to Florida State's success is its ability to establish the run with inside zone concepts.
However, this has been a strength for Miami's 4-2-5 defense so far, posting a 62% Success Rate against inside zone read concepts.
The Seminoles must work out of passing downs in this game after finding themselves in passing downs at the third-lowest rate this season.
Tommy Castellanos will face a mix of Cover 3 and man coverage from Corey Hetherman's defense, giving Florida State an advantage. The Seminoles have diced up Cover 3 so far this season with a 58% Success Rate and a 25% explosive play rate.
Miami is expected to have success rushing against a Seminoles front that has an average Success Rate against man and inside zone schemes.
When the Hurricanes are forced to pass, Carson Beck will predominantly see a quarters coverage zone look. Beck has been outstanding against quarters, generating a 75% Success Rate with an explosive on 24% of attempts.
The Action Network's Betting Power Ratings recommend a spread of Miami -4, in line with the current market offering. The over, however, presents value on any number below the key of 55.
Miami will find average success in zone rushing with a high probability of explosives through the air to Malachi Toney and CJ Daniels.
As for Florida State, success against Miami's Cover 3 package will also generate opportunities for home-run scores with Duce Robinson as the target.
Read Collin's entire Miami-Florida State breakdown and more in his full Week 6 column:
Pick: Over 54 (-110, bet365)
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Stuckey's Spots: Night Best Bet
By Stuckey
I've been itching to fade UNLV again for the past two weeks while the Rebels enjoyed their bye week. No team has a more laughable 4-0 resume than UNLV, which has wins over UCLA, Sam Houston State, Idaho State, and Miami (OH).
Those four opponents have a combined zero victories against FBS foes.
It's also worth noting that the Rebels were on the verge of getting run off the field in Oxford until Miami (OH) lost starting quarterback Dequan Finn to an injury on a play where he threw a pick-six.
Still, even with a backup quarterback who isn't capable of running the offense Finn does, the RedHawks found themselves in a position to win before fumbling in the red zone in the final minutes of a tie game. It was one of the luckiest wins of the season.
While I don't love this Wyoming team, its offense does have a little more juice this season with quarterback Kaden Anderson.
The Pokes, who have played a significantly more difficult schedule, have also found something over their past two games with freshman running back Samuel Harris, who had 19 carries against Colorado after only 18 combined over the first three games.
He's averaging 6.9 yards per rush and should have a very productive day at the office against a UNLV defense that can't stop the run.
On the season against a clown car schedule, the Rebels' defense ranks outside the top 100 in Rush Success Rate allowed and sits in the bottom-10 nationally in Rush EPA allowed.
Additionally, UNLV has been extremely fortunate on late downs on both sides of the ball. On third downs alone, the Rebels have converted a ridiculous 52% on offense, while holding opponents to just 21%.
Despite ranking outside the top 100 in early downs EPA, they rank in the top 15 in late-down Success Rate. And on offense, they rank second on late downs despite sitting right around the national average on early downs.
They've also enjoyed a +6 turnover margin.
Lastly, Wyoming could benefit from some good old-fashioned fall weather in Laramie against the indoor Rebs. It could be a colder night with some precipitation and wind, which would be much more detrimental to the UNLV offense.
Check out all of Stuckey's Week 6 situational spots here:
Pick: Wyoming +4 or Better
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Ianniello's Group of 5 Pick For Saturday Night
UTSA has not gotten off to the start many expected, with the Roadrunners poised as a sleeper in the American.
The offense returned nine starters, led by quarterback Owen McCown, who finished second in the conference with 25 touchdown passes. McCown has seven touchdown passes through four games, but his yards per game and yards per attempt are both way down.
Instead, the Roadrunners have been relying more on running back Robert Henry. He leads the conference with 624 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Henry has a blistering 9.2 yards per carry, the most of any back in the country with more than 40 carries.
UTSA has been incredibly explosive on offense, but has struggled to move the ball down the field consistently. They rank outside of the top 100 nationally in Success Rate on offense.
The defensive numbers have been a disaster for the Roadrunners, but they started the year against Texas A&M and a good Texas State offense. They have looked better the last two weeks, but need to continue improving after not returning a single starter from last year.
Temple has had the opposite schedule, starting the year against two easy opponents before being blown out by Oklahoma and Georgia Tech over the last two weeks. K.C. Keeler has the team looking quickly improved, but the Owls still have a lot to improve upon.
Quarterback Evan Simon has been terrific and has been feeding receiver Jojo Bermudez on the outside. The passing attack has been terrific, but the numbers have plummeted over the last two games.
Temple completed 80% of its passes for 507 yards and 10 touchdowns against UMass and Howard. The Owls have completed 48% of their passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns in the next two games. The true level of this offense is likely somewhere in between.
Before the season, our Action Network Power Ratings would have made this game 20.3 on a neutral field, and SP+ would have made the spread 17.7. Even after upgrading Temple and downgrading UTSA, this still feels like an overreaction to a slow start for the Roadrunners and inflated numbers from Temple’s first two games.
Even now, our Action Network Power Ratings still predict a 13.5-point spread on a neutral field.
Temple isn’t exactly known for a raucous home-field advantage. Both teams are coming off a bye week, but I think that benefits UTSA more to work out the kinks and come out strong here.
Check out Ianniello's entire Group of 5 Card for Week 6:
Pick: Memphis -20.5 (-110, bet365)
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Ziefel's Top Player Prop For Saturday Night
By Doug Ziefel
Tommy Castellanos' ability to run the ball has been a revelation to the Florida State offense, but you can count on that being a focal point of the Hurricanes' defense.
Miami has been tremendous against the rush, ranking eighth nationally in rushing yards allowed.
The Hurricanes have also excelled in creating pressure, ranking 29th in sack rate. Sacks are a crucial part of this pick as they count against quarterback rushing yards in college football.
While we have seen Castellanos exceed this total in three of four games this season, look for Miami to not only contain him, but sack him on multiple occasions as he stays under this total.
Pick: Tommy Castellanos Under 50.5 Rush Yards (-115, bet365)
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Our Featured Bet Labs System For Saturday Night
This game triggered one of our Action Labs PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
Undervalued Road Dogs is a college football system that identifies situations where teams receiving little respect from the market have a stronger chance of covering the spread than expected.
These games typically occur during the regular season when the spread is set between 7.5 and 21.5 points, indicating that the road team is viewed as a heavy underdog.
Often, these teams are on losing streaks away from home, which drives public perception even lower, but their Pythagorean rating indicates they are still performing competitively within a reasonable margin. When the closing total is between 39 and 50.5, scoring is projected to be moderate, creating a better chance for the underdog to keep the game within the number.
With public betting often leaning toward the favorite in these spots, the road dog is overlooked, allowing the line to offer value.
This combination of perception, spread range, and statistical balance consistently highlights underdogs that cover more often than expected.
For what it's worth, our guy Stuckey is on the Wolf Pack, making me far more confident about this system play.
Pick: Nevada +13.5 (-110, bet365)
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BBOC's Full Action App Card
Missed this week's episode of Big Bets On Campus? Luckily, we track all of Stuckey and Collin's picks on the Action Network App!
Additionally, if you haven't already, make sure you download the free award-winning Action Network App to track all your bets and tail all of your favorite experts:
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