There's nothing quite like some Tuesday night football, and we have two games in Week 10.
The action starts with a Conference USA battle between the UTEP Miners and conference favorite Kennesaw State Owls and then continues with a Sun Belt showdown between the James Madison Dukes and Texas State Bobcats.
Our college football writers came through with college football picks and NCAAF predictions for both games, so let's strap in — and be sure to check back tomorrow for our Wednesday night college football betting coverage.
College Football Picks, Predictions, Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Tuesday's two-game slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
UTEP vs Kennesaw State Pick
By Joshua Nunn
The Owls have been a great team this year, emerging as the Conference USA favorites, but I'm not sure I want to lay two scores with them here.
This will be the largest favorite role they've ever had at the FBS level, so I'm going to grab those points with UTEP at +10.5.
Coming off the bye week with some extra time to get new starting quarterback Skyler Locklear some reps should make this UTEP offense look a lot more potent.
I expect the Miners to build on their victory over Sam Houston in their first win over an FBS opponent this season. The offense saw some explosiveness in the run game, and Locklear completed 21-of-26 passes while averaging 9.1 yards per attempt.
UTEP ranks 47th nationally in EPA Per Rush and 17th in rushing explosiveness. Well, Kennesaw State has been prone to getting beaten on the ground.
Its last opponent, FIU, gashed the Owls for 222 yards rushing on six yards per carry. Kennesaw ranks just 116th in rush explosiveness allowed and 117th in EPA Per Rush allowed, so UTEP should be able to run the ball with Ashten Emory and Hahsaun Wilson.
Locklear has protected the ball better, and UTEP should have success getting into the red zone, where they were much improved in terms of efficiency last week. I expect solid execution and touchdowns after scoring on 5-of-6 trips since the quarterback change from Malachi Nelson.
Defensively, UTEP has been great at preventing pass explosives. The Owls feast on busting big plays through the air, but the Miners haven't allowed 250 yards passing to an FBS opponent this season.
Gabriel Benyard is the primary deep threat for KSU, but UTEP's pass rush should force Dexter Williams II to throw it a split-second early, which will disrupt the timing of these routes.
UTEP’s red-zone defense has been brilliant all season, allowing touchdowns on just 48% of trips inside the 20-yard line.
Kennesaw State is used to scoring touchdowns in the red zone, which has been a key to its offensive success during its five-game win streak.
I think the Miners defense can do enough to prevent touchdowns in the red zone and force KSU into fourth-down decisions when down close.
Pick: UTEP +10.5 (Play to +10)
| |
James Madison vs Texas State Pick
By John Feltman
This game is projected to be a back-and-forth affair despite James Madison's elite defense.
JMU holds the upper hand in defensive efficiency, but Texas State’s ability to extend drives and defend on third downs should keep this within a one-score window.
The Bobcats rank 28th in EPA Per Pass and 33rd in EPA Per Rush, indicating they produce steady positive value through both phases of the offense.
The Dukes offense relies more on quality drives than explosives. This plays directly into Texas State's hands, especially since its late-down defense has been sneakily strong.
The third-down battle will likely determine the outcome of this game. JMU converts 52.3% of its third- and fourth-down attempts, ranking 17th in the nation, but faces a Bobcats defense that allows just 40.2% in those situations (32nd).
This is more about the Texas State offense's elite talent that can crack the code against the Dukes. I have enough faith that the Bobs can score enough despite the matchup.
Expect a gritty, one-possession battle deep into the fourth quarter. The Bobcats should have a shot to drive down the field late to cover the number and potentially win the game outright.
Pick: Texas State +7 (Play to +6.5)
