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Saturday's slate is loaded again, and with Texas traveling to Tennessee to open SEC play, Texas A&M visiting LSU, and Oregon heading to USC in a Big Ten showdown, there's a great lineup of games to add to your betting card.
I've pinpointed three player props for Saturday, including picks for Texas' Arch Manning, LSU's Sam Leavitt, and USC's Mark Bowman.
With that said, let's dive into my top three college football player props and NCAAF picks for Week 4 on Saturday, Sept. 26.
College Football Player Props, Picks
- Arch Manning Under 251.5 Passing Yards (-114 · FanDuel)
- Sam Leavitt Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115 · bet365)
- Mark Bowman Under 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114 · FanDuel)
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Arch Manning Under 251.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Arch Manning's season-long yardage profile supports the under clearly. Through three games, he has thrown for 305 (Texas State), 195 (Ohio State), and 161 (UTSA) — a season average of 220.3 yards per game, nearly 30 yards under this line. Only his Week 1 outing against an FCS-level opponent has cleared the number; both of his more competitive tests saw him under 200.
Texas is a run-first, defense-first team under Steve Sarkisian this year. Their offensive identity leans on the ground game (228 rushing yards vs. UTSA alone) and forcing turnovers rather than asking Manning to sling it 35+ times.
Tennessee's defense, under new coordinator Jim Knowles, has been genuinely stout through three games. They held Furman to just 43 passing yards and limited Kennesaw State to single digits, though they did allow 221 through the air to Georgia Tech — so there's some given-up-yardage risk, but nothing that points to a shootout.
Neyland Stadium is also a hostile true road environment for a true SEC-opener test, the kind of spot where a young-ish Texas staff is more likely to lean on ball control and their defense than ask Manning to air it out downfield.
Lastly, Manning's completion percentage has also been shaky in his two toughest games (17-of-33 vs. OSU, 16-of-32 vs. UTSA, both sub-55%), which caps yardage even on similar attempt counts. Unless Texas falls behind and is forced into a two-minute-style script, the volume and per-attempt efficiency both point under.
Pick: Arch Manning Under 251.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Sam Leavitt Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115)
Sam Leavitt's three touchdown passes in three games understate how the offense is actually performing through his arm. Leavitt has thrown for 732 yards across three games (574 through two, plus 158 vs. Ole Miss); that's real volume, and he's completed over 62% of his passes.
The problem hasn't been opportunity; it's been finishing drives. Three of LSU's red-zone trips against Louisiana Tech alone ended in field goals rather than touchdowns, and he's thrown 5 interceptions in 3 games, several in or near the red zone, that have directly capped his TD count. If LSU's red-zone execution normalizes even slightly, the volume is there to support two scores through the air.
His early-season touchdown distribution is also a strong indicator of positive regression. Leavitt has 6 rushing touchdowns this season, pulling paint away from his passing TD total in an offense that clearly trusts his legs near the goal line (3 rush TDs alone vs. Louisiana Tech). Against a Texas A&M front that ranked among the best rush defenses in the SEC last year, LSU may be forced to finish more drives through the air rather than with QB power runs, which would organically push this number up.
The game script may also help. LSU is coming off a home loss to Ole Miss and returns to Tiger Stadium as a favorite in a statement, bounce-back spot.
A motivated, protect-your-ranking home crowd game against an SEC opponent is the kind of spot where an offense opens things up rather than plays conservatively.
Pick: Sam Leavitt Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115)
Mark Bowman Under 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Bowman's usage has been genuinely explosive but extremely game-script-dependent, and that's the key risk to the over. His one big outing — 6 catches, 83 yards, 2 TD — came against Louisiana in a blowout where USC built a 28-10 first-half lead and could feed him in a clean pocket with no pressure.
That's a very different environment than a ranked, competitive Big Ten game against a real Oregon defense. Outside of that one spike game, his overall workload has been modest. Through the first two weeks of the season, against Fresno State and the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns, he was kept to just 6 catches for 45 yards combined in the lower-usage portion of that sample, which suggests his target share is inconsistent from start to start.
The bigger structural factor is that Bowman isn't even the clear top read in this passing game. Trent Mosley, a fellow freshman, is USC's actual leading receiver through the season (255 yards, 4 TDs on 13 catches through the Rutgers game), well ahead of Bowman's usage.
With Jayden Maiava spreading the ball around a deep and talented USC skill group, Bowman is competing for volume rather than commanding it, which caps his ceiling in a game where the whole offense will be shared.
The matchup itself is also tougher than USC's first four opponents. Oregon is a ranked, well-coached Big Ten team that, while not flawless defensively, presents a completely different level of competition than Fresno State, Louisiana, or Rutgers. USC's four wins so far have come against overmatched or rebuilding defenses.
Against Oregon's talent level, expect a more balanced, tighter game script that doesn't feature the kind of first-half runaway scoring that fueled Bowman's one huge game. A freshman tight end working as a complementary weapon in a tightly contested ranked matchup is a recipe for the under.
Pick: Mark Bowman Under 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
