In college football, it’s not just about who you play; it’s where and when. Sandwich spots, bye week considerations and dreaded conference road games can turn a matchup on its head.
This week, I’ve circled a ranked team that’s getting far too much love and buying low on a national power that has been memed to death in the month of September.
Let's dive into my college football predictions and early Week 6 NCAAF picks for Texas vs. Florida and Iowa State vs. Cincinnati on Saturday, Oct. 4.
Iowa State vs. Cincinnati Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | -120 |
The 14th-ranked Cyclones are undefeated, yet they’ve opened as short road ‘dogs to unranked Cincinnati.
We saw this exact situation play out last week in the Big 12 between No. 24 TCU and Arizona State. The Sun Devils closed as three-point home favorites over the ranked Horned Frogs. Arizona State erased a 17-0 deficit and won, 27-24, in Tempe.
What sportsbooks are trying to signal here is that their power rankings do not reflect the preferences of AP voters. Multiple power rankings from the Action Network, ESPN and the KFord Ratings place Iowa State closer to 30th than the AP Top 10.
The value of that zero in the loss column means much more to AP voters than ratings systems that are looking ahead.
The real issue for Iowa State is game flow. When it's ahead and can run the football, the Clones are difficult to keep out of the end zone. Quarterback Rocco Becht punched in three scores last week during a rout of Arizona.
But we haven’t seen Becht placed in a come-from-behind situation this season where defenses know that he has to push the ball downfield.
His passing numbers against Power Four competition have been modest (61%, 7.5 YPA), and it’s clear that ISU is far less explosive this season after losing a pair of wide receivers to the NFL.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, can rely on one of the hottest quarterbacks in the country.
Brendan Sorsby is coming off a monster performance on the road at Kansas. He accounted for 440 total yards while throwing three touchdowns against the Jayhawks.
He led a surgical game-winning drive to upset KU in the closing minutes and will be a major test for the Iowa State defense on Saturday.
He’s been a markedly better passer at home than on the road during his career, and he helped the Bearcats knock off the Big 12 champs (ASU) at Nippert Stadium last fall. I think he has another statement win in him at home.
Texas vs Florida Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | -260 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | +210 |
The bye week came at the perfect time for Texas. The Longhorns were banged up at running back and needed to get Arch Manning out of the national spotlight.
The narrative with Texas right now is that Manning is a mess, from his delivery to his decision-making. All that has done is provide a UT discount in terms of this point spread.
Even if you don’t believe in head coach Steve Sarkisian’s ability to elevate this offense, you still have a top-10 defense to throw at Florida.
On the other side, the Gators are on the brink of a complete implosion. Quarterback DJ Lagway has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and looked completely overwhelmed against the LSU and Miami defenses.
By comparison, Manning has been inconsistent, but he has at least added a new element to the UT offense with his legs. Manning has cashed in five rushing touchdowns in the past three weeks, and his running ability could prove critical on third down and in goal-to-go situations.
When I look at Sarkisian’s record in Austin, I split his performance into two buckets: his rebuild and his resurgence.
After a 13-12 start, he’s won 28 of his last 34 games. And in that window, the Longhorns have played great football away from home.
They beat third-ranked Alabama by 10 in T-Town, humbled Michigan at the Big House, and ended Texas A&M’s playoff hopes at Kyle Field last November.
That indicates to me that Sark has grown as a “big road game” coach. Catching this spread below the key number of seven could prove to be a gift for gamblers in the event of a late backdoor touchdown from the Gators.
Pick: Texas -6.5
