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Wilson: Week 9 CFB Projected Spreads and Games I’m Looking to Bet on Sunday

Oct 21, 2018 8:24 AM EDT
  • Collin Wilson projects every point spread for college football Week 9 and uses his power ratings to find early value when lines open on Sunday.
  • Use this as a guide when betting openers before they move.

Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee. Let this column serve as your first look at the projected point spreads for Week 9’s college football matchups.

These numbers are based off my college football Power Ratings, which you can find here.

When the real lines come out later on Sunday (usually around mid-afternoon on BetOnline), I’ll compare my power-rated spreads to what oddsmakers posted to find betting value before the odds move.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.


College Football Week 9 Point Spread Projections

Numbers I’m Looking For

Purdue at Michigan State

Projected Spread: Michigan State -3
Number I Want: Anything Michigan State -3 or less

Here’s a classic buy low, sell high spot after Michigan State lost to rival Michigan and Purdue had the highlight of its season in defeating Ohio State on Saturday. The Spartans were 21st in defensive S&P+ through Week 7 and should limit Purdue’s explosive offense.

UAB at UTEP

Projected Spread: UTEP +18.5
Number I Want: UTEP +21 or better

Not only is this a chance to fade UAB’s massive victory over North Texas, it’s a chance to back a UTEP team that is improving each week. A deeper dive into the Miners box score against Louisiana Tech shows they outgained the Bulldogs in an easy road cover.

Utah at UCLA

Projected Spread: Utah -10
Number I Want: Utah -7 or better

Utah dominated USC (though the Trojans do not have a great track record on the road under head coach Clay Helton).  UCLA’s victory disguised a poor box score where Arizona outgained the Bruins y 60 yards. UCLA needed all three of the turnovers it got to win by one point over the Wildcats.

Situational Edges I’m Eyeing

  • Purdue comes off the biggest win in recent program history with travel to Michigan State, which will look to rebound from a loss to Michigan.
  • After essentially clinching the Conference USA West against North Texas, UAB travels to an improving UTEP.
  • Army may have overlook against Eastern Michigan with Air Force on deck in Week 10.
  • Penn State may overlook a home game with Iowa, as it travels to Michigan in Week 10.
  • Cal hosts a Washington team that may have overlook to Stanford in Week 10.
  • Oregon, Vanderbilt, Coastal Carolina, Wake Forest, Illinois, Rice, Cincinnati, N.C. State and North Carolina are all on back-to back-travel. 
  • Troy-South Alabama, Georgia Tech-Virginia Tech, Baylor-West Virginia, Miami-Boston College, Northern Illinois-BYU, Georgia-Florida and Texas-Oklahoma State are teams facing each other off a bye week. The remaining list of teams off a bye includes Iowa State, Notre Dame, Kansas State, Pittsburgh and South Carolina.
  • Arizona State and Stanford will have a few extra days rest in their games against USC and Washington State, respectively.
  • Louisville comes off a bye week to face Wake Forest, which is on back-to-back travel.

A Few Other Week 8 Notes

  • Wide receiver Laviska Shenault did not play for Colorado against Washington.
  • Quarterback Jarrett Guarantano left the game for Tennessee.
  • Explosiveness watch includes Troy’s rushing against South Alabama’s rush defense, ULL’s rushing against Arkansas’ rush defense, and Washington’s pass defense against Cal.
Credit:

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tom Herman

Follow Collin Wilson on Twitter
@_Collin1

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
-8.5
58.5
-11
61
-15
51.5
-15
49
-13.5
68
-14
69.5
-2
80
-2.5
84
54
-3
49
-2.5
-3
59
-4.5
56
-3
53.5
-6.5
52
61
-17
59.5
-17
57
-7
57.5
-7
52
-24
52.5
-24
55.5
-14
53.5
-13.5
58.5
-18
58
-17
51
-5.5
47
-4
-17
51
-17.5
51
60.5
-25
58.5
-26
41
-14
40.5
-13
47.5
-2
47.5
-3
-8
53.5
-11
54
44
-13.5
44
-11
68
-3
67.5
-2