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Living in Florida limits some of the ways I can attack the college football betting landscape, but it doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities out there. Underdog is one of the places where I can take advantage of my college football research through player projections, and that’s what I’ll be focusing on here.
Week 8 had some great plays with Darian Mensah and Jaden Craig + Jordan Dwyer, but it was a frustrating one in the spots that got away.
A terrible drop for Daylyn Upshaw cost his number, George MacIntyre had a terrible game, and Jackson Harris wasn't limited at all, which ruined Winston Watkins. Sometimes the matchup and the numbers point in the right direction, but the results just don't follow.
Now this weekend, we have some great spots and some low yardage spots to get over the hump. I really like the matchups we have, and I'm looking forward to turning some of these strong spots into winning results.
For this slate, there are five numbers that stand out to me, with several that I’m comfortable pushing well beyond the current projection.
Florida vs Georgia Picks
Stockton has cleared this number in each of his last three games: 295 yards against Vanderbilt, 249 against Alabama, and 272 against Auburn. Florida shows single-high looks on 66% of its snaps, and Stockton is averaging 10.41 yards per dropback against single-high.
The quarterbacks Florida has faced have cleared it too: Byrum Brown threw for 271 yards, Trinidad Chambliss threw for 298, and LaNorris Sellers threw for 279.
Luckie has cleared 24.5 receiving yards in four of seven games, and in each of his last three: 43, 32, and 41 yards.
His 5.96 yards per route run against single-high is the best mark of any Georgia receiver in that split, and that's exactly the look Florida lives in.
Picks: Gunner Stockton Higher than 237.5 Yards Passing + Lawson Luckie Higher than 24.5 Yards Receiving
Northwestern vs Oregon Pick
Komolafe has cleared this number in three of his last four games: 188 yards against Penn State, 67 against Michigan State, and 150 against Rutgers.
He's getting 14.0 touches per game with 60% of Northwestern's backfield touches, and Oregon has allowed a 100-yard rusher in four of seven games.
The workload and the matchup both point the same way.
Picks: Caleb Komolafe Higher than 50.5 Yards Rushing
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Utah vs Cincinnati Picks
Dampier has cleared this number in four of seven games: 261 yards against Arkansas, 253 against Utah State, 238 against Kansas, and 278 against Colorado. Cincinnati plays zone 82% of the time, and Dampier is averaging 7.75 yards per dropback against zone. Noah Fifita threw for 284 yards against Cincinnati, and Will Hammond threw for 227.
Johnson is the Dig-route piece here. Cincinnati allows 14.39 yards per attempt on Dig routes, the worst mark of any route against them, and Johnson is Dampier's top Dig target at a 33% target share.
His own hit rate is just 2-of-7, but receivers have gotten there against Cincinnati: Isaiah Mizell had 67 yards, Kenny Johnson had 81, and Coy Eakin had 45.
Pick: Devon Dampier Higher than 222.5 Yards Passing + Ricky Johnson Higher than 29.5 Yards Receiving
Virginia vs Wake Forest Pick
Lopez has scored a rushing touchdown in three of seven games, with six rushing touchdowns total: two against Purdue, three against Stanford, and one against NC State.
He's averaging 6.3 designed runs per game with a 30% red-zone rush share, and we've seen running quarterbacks have a ton of success against Virginia.
Once Wake Forest gets into the red zone, I trust Lopez to finish the drive.
Pick: Gio Lopez Higher than 0.5 Anytime Touchdowns
South Carolina vs Oklahoma Pick
Beers has cleared this number in five of seven games, averaging 56.4 receiving yards per game, including 94 against Michigan, 84 against Georgia, and 66 against Mississippi State.
He's at a 71% route share with a 19% target share, and South Carolina is allowing 10.76 DK points per game to tight ends. He doesn't need a big game here, just more of what he's already done.
Pick: Rocky Beers Higher than 39.5 Yards Receiving
