College Football Week 10: McMurphy’s Law on CFP Rankings, LSU vs. Alabama & More
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: A College Football Playoff helmet.
Georgia is not No. 1. The two-time defending champion Bulldogs have won 25 consecutive games and are coming off a rout of rival Florida. However, Georgia is not the nation’s No. 1-ranked team.
The initial College Football Playoff rankings were released Tuesday night with Ohio State at No. 1 and Georgia at No. 2.
Actually, the Bulldogs were ranked higher by the selection committee than I thought they would be. Last year, Georgia had an impressive beat down of a top-10 Oregon team, yet only came in at No. 3 in the 2022 initial rankings.
This year’s Georgia resume is worse than last year’s at this point. The selection committee heavily weighs strength of schedule, specifically wins vs. teams with winning records and Top 25 wins. In 2022, Georgia had two wins vs. teams with winning records and a Top 25 win. This year, Georgia has two wins over teams with winning records but no Top 25 wins.
Still, the Bulldogs apparently passed the selection committee’s “eye test.” Is Georgia the nation’s best team? Perhaps. Does it deserve to be No. 2 based on what it has accomplished so far? Nope.
Yet, Georgia was ranked ahead of No. 4 Florida State (three wins vs. teams with winning records, one Top 25 win) and No. 5 Washington (two wins vs. teams with winning records, one Top 25 win vs. No. 6 Oregon). Both had better resumes than Georgia but were ranked behind the Bulldogs.
Such is one of several maddening aspects of the selection committee’s weekly rankings. The only consistent factor about the selection committee rankings is its inconsistency each week.
Besides the discrepancies of what this year’s selection committee values as important — oh yeah, USC is ranked No. 20. Really? — there is one aspect to take away from Tuesday’s initial rankings.
At this point of the season, 33 of the 36 teams that have made the playoff in the past nine years ranked in the top seven of the playoff rankings at this point. That's good news for Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, Florida State, Washington, Oregon and Texas.
Maybe Significant (Or Not) 🏈
On Saturday, LSU's Brian Kelly tries to defeat Alabama in consecutive seasons and become only the eighth coach to defeat Nick Saban in consecutive seasons.
Two weeks ago, Tennessee’s Josh Heupel had his chance but failed. The only coaches to defeat Saban in consecutive seasons in Saban’s 28 years as college coach:
- Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss (2014-15)
- Les Miles, LSU (2010-11)
- Steve Spurrier, UF (2000-01)
- Joe Tiller, Purdue (1997-99)
- Lloyd Carr, Michigan (1996-97)
- Hayden Fry, Iowa (1995-96)
- Joe Paterno, Penn State (1995-96)
LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels also hopes to make history. Daniels is bidding to become the first starting QB to beat a Saban-coached team in consecutive seasons since he’s been at Alabama.
Florida’s Rex Grossman (2000-01) and Purdue’s Drew Brees (1998-99) were the last to do so, when Saban was at LSU and Michigan State, respectively.
“Drew Brees was always the biggest nemesis I have ever had, whether it was when I was at Michigan State and he was at Purdue, or in the NFL,” Saban said last spring.
Will Daniels match Brees’ success against Saban?
Stat of the Week 📈
Oklahoma State running bacl Ollie Gordon II has been putting up Barry Sanders-like numbers the past few weeks.
How impressive has Gordon been? Here are the teams with the most rushing yards in the past two weeks compared with Gordon:
- Liberty, 724 (115 carries)
- Georgia Tech, 596 (83 carries)
- Cincinnati, 565 (93 carries)
- Boston College, 554 (97 carries)
- Oklahoma State's Ollie Gordon II, 553 (54 carries)
- Jacksonville State, 527 (110 carries)
- Kansas State, 522 (98 carries)
- West Virginia, 512 (83 carries)
BONUS: Stat of the Week No. 2 📈
With Oklahoma moving to the SEC next year, Saturday marks the final Bedlam Series meeting between OU and Oklahoma State for the foreseeable future.
The Bedlam Series holds a rare distinction as one of four in-state rivalries that actually started playing before statehood.
| In-State Rivalry | Statehood | Pre-Statehood Meetings |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico vs. NM State | 1912 | 6 |
| OU vs. OK State | 1907 | 3 |
| Arizona vs. Arizona State | 1912 | 2 |
| Utah vs. Utah State | 1896 | 1 |
Dream Bowl Projection of the Week 😋
Oklahoma’s loss to Kansas increases the Sooners’ chances of missing a New Year’s Six bowl game, which means it would be available for the Alamo Bowl.
On the other side is a Pac-12 team. Oregon and Washington seem set for either the playoff or a New Year’s Six bowl, so who’s left? Oregon State? Utah? UCLA? No, no and no.
USC would be the obvious choice in a juicy matchup between Lincoln Riley’s current team and former team.
Could this bowl be pulled off? Probably not. USC’s defense has a better chance of throwing a shutout than Riley does of agreeing to play OU in a non-playoff bowl. But we can still hold out hope.
TV Eyeball Watch 📺👀
Georgia’s rout of Florida on CBS was the top-rated matchup last week, averaging only 5.59 million viewers. It was the lowest-watched top-rated matchup of the college football season, excluding Week Zero.
Here are last week’s top-rated games, according to SportsMediaWatch.
Last week’s top five (all times ET):
- Georgia vs. Florida, 5.59 million (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)
- Ohio State at Wisconsin, 4.87 million (NBC, 7:30 p.m.)
- Colorado at UCLA, 4.66 million (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)
- Oklahoma at Kansas, 3.60 million (FOX, noon)
- Indiana at Penn State, 3.40 million (CBS, noon)
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover 💰
While most of the East Coast sleeps, there’s been some point-spread success west of the Rocky Mountains.
Arizona and UNLV have the best against-the-spread records, each at 7-1, while Oregon comes in at 6-1-1. Rutgers is the lone non-Western school in the top four, also at 6-1-1 ATS.
The least successful teams against the spread are Vanderbilt (1-8), Illinois (1-7) and Temple (1-7).
100% Guaranteed Pick* 💸
*Will Likely Lose 70% of the Time
West Virginia -10 vs. BYU
If I were a coach with a small buyout, I would officially be fired with a 3-7 start. Unfortunately for you, I’m not, so I’ll trudge ahead in my quest to get my head above water.
On Action Network’s weekly BBOC show on Saturday, I’ve gone 2-1 in three of the last four weeks. Of course, that means nothing here.
I’ve stalled long enough. Here it goes: West Virginia is facing a BYU team on back-to-back road games that has struggled away from home and is making only its second-ever trek to Morgantown. Give me West Virginia -10.
Season Record: 3-7
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