College Football Week 12 Analytics Betting Preview: Success Rate, Havoc & More (Saturday, Nov. 19)
Hannah Foslien/Getty Images. Pictured: A Minnesota Golden Gophers flag.
Well, we are on a bit of a slide here. After dropping two in a row, this article has fallen to 6-3-1 (still pretty solid, if I do say so myself).
This is historically known as the week before Rivalry Week, but there are still plenty of entertaining games to go around. Most notably, Utah travels to Eugene, Oregon, to take on the Ducks, while TCU may be on upset alert in Waco, Texas.
This breakdown looks at three metrics that have proven to be relevant to covering the spread:
If you're interested in why these metrics have been chosen, check out this piece by Collin Wilson. To quote his findings:
“Data from the past five years indicates defensive Success Rate, Havoc and Finishing Drives are the biggest indicators in beating oddsmakers this college football season.”
Let’s dive in and see where we can find an edge in Week 12.
Havoc
What is Havoc?
Havoc is a college football term defined as a play where there’s an unexpected outcome.Pass breakups, forced fumbles and tackles for loss are just a few of the plays that cause chaos on any given Saturday. Collectively, these plays are used to build an identity for a team.
The calculation for Havoc is simply a cumulative number of tackles for loss, interceptions, fumbles and passes defensed divided by the number of plays on both sides of the ball.
Let's see where we can find some big Havoc discrepancies in Week 12:
Home Team Havoc Allowed vs. Away Team Havoc Rate
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Top 3 Havoc Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Defense vs. Virginia Cavaliers Offense
- Washington Huskies Offense vs. Colorado Buffalo Defense
- San Diego State Aztecs Defense vs. New Mexico Lobos Offense
Away Team Havoc Allowed vs. Home Team Havoc Rate
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Top 3 Havoc Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- Buffalo Bulls Defense vs. Akron Zips Offense
- USC Trojans Offense vs. UCLA Bruins Defense
- Central Michigan Chippewas Defense vs. Western Michigan Broncos Offense
Success Rate
What is Success Rate?
Success Rate is an advanced metric in football that measures efficiency, but with the important context of down and distance considered.
A play is defined as successful if:
- It gains at least 50% of the yards required to move the chains on first down
- 70% of yards to gain on second down
- 100% of yards to gain on third or fourth down
To calculate Success Rate, simply divide the number of successful plays (as defined by down and distance above) by total plays.
This definition is taken from our article on Success Rate.
Home Team Offensive Success Rate vs. Away Team Defensive Success Rate
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Top 3 Success Rate Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- Washington Huskies Offense vs. Colorado Buffaloes Defense
- UCLA Bruins Offense vs. USC Trojans Defense
- South Alabama Jaguars Defense vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles Offense
Away Team Offensive Success Rate vs. Home Team Defensive Success Rate
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Top 3 Success Rate Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- Minnesota Golden Gophers Defense vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Offense
- Tennessee Volunteers Offense vs. South Carolina Gamecocks Defense
- Mizzou Tigers Defense vs. New Mexico State Aggies Offense
Finishing Drives
What is Finishing Drives?
Finishing Drives is calculated as points per opportunity when the offense passes the opponent’s 40-yard line.
Defensively, this is how many points per opportunity a defense allows when the opposing offense crosses the 40-yard line.
Home Team Offensive Finishing Drives vs. Away Team Defensive Finishing Drives
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Top 3 Finishing Drives Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- Washington Huskies Offense vs. Colorado Buffaloes Defense
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane Offense vs. South Florida Bulls Defense
- Georgia Bulldogs Defense vs. Kentucky Wildcats Offense
Away Team Offensive Finishing Drives vs. Home Team Defensive Finishing Drives
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Top 3 Finishing Drives Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- Texas A&M Aggies Defense vs. UMass Minutemen Offense
- Minnesota Golden Gophers Defense vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Offense
- USC Trojans Offense vs. UCLA Bruins Defense
College Football Week 12 Betting Takeaways
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Both teams are coming into this game on a three-game win streak, and each offense has scored at least 20 points in all three contests.
With a total of 32.5, 70% of the tickets are on the over in this matchup. To me, this is wildly optimistic.
Iowa's defense has been borderline elite this year, while its offense has been awful. It ranks in top-20 in Success Rate Allowed, explosiveness allowed and Points per Opportunity Allowed.
Meanwhile, Minnesota has seen defensive success despite its lack of Havoc. That shouldn't be a problem against the Hawkeyes, who rank 98th in Havoc Allowed.
The Golden Gophers also rank in the top 20 in Success Rate Allowed and Points per Opportunity Allowed.
I'm expecting a defensive struggle with a ton of punts and an emphasis on field position. Let's fade the public, take the under and get back to our winning ways.
Pick: Iowa vs. Minnesota Under 32 .5 |
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