Wilson: Projecting Week 12 College Football Over/Unders
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Georgia Bulldogs wide receiver Jeremiah Holloman
College football over/unders are released early in the week and can see heavy movement because of weather, injury or scheme. This column serves as your first look at the projected totals for Week 12’s college football matchups.
These numbers are based on a mathematical projection of yards per play, plays per game, adjusted pace and efficiency. The Action Network Power Ratings, which can be used to create point spreads, can be found here.
When the totals are released, I’ll compare my over/unders to what oddsmakers have posted to find betting value before the odds move.
Discrepancies in weather, injuries and standard passing down/run rate are all factors when investing on a total.
Be sure to follow me on The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.
College Football Week 12 Over/Under Projections
Notes on Pace, Injury, and Weather
Toledo at Kent State
Projected Total: 50
Both the Rockets and Golden Flashes have a high ranking in adjusted pace, which looks at plays per game based on run and passing rates. Toledo ranks 38th and Kent State ranks 9th, which should lead to some points scored.
Mother Nature will have her say in this game, with a current forecast of 35 degrees, 10 mph winds, and a 75% chance of rain mixing with snow. Keep tabs on the weather, as this total could drop fast.
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina
Projected Total: 47
The slowest and least explosive game of the weekend may come with Georgia Southern visiting Coastal Carolina. The Eagles have an adjusted pace of 110th with an offensive rank of 75th in IsoPPP.
The Chants have an adjusted pace of 120th and an offensive IsoPPP rank of 76th. If you like to see two different flavors of the triple option, this game is your Super Bowl.
UMass at Georgia
Projected Total: 59
Georgia may be able to get over this total with just its scoring. Both the Bulldogs and Minutemen rank in the top 20 offensively in IsoPPP, but it is UMass’ inability to defend explosiveness that is the difference.
The Minutemen’s defense ranks 119th in IsoPPP and 123rd in success rate. With Georgia Tech on deck, expect the Bulldogs not to miss a beat offensively heading into rivalry week.