College Football Week 9: McMurphy’s Law on the College Football Playoff, Georgia vs. Florida & More

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On Tuesday night, which most people refer to as Halloween (except Alabama fans, who celebrate Nick Saban’s birthday — yes, Saban really was born on Halloween), the College Football Playoff’s selection committee will release its initial rankings.

Trick or treat, anyone?

Wondering who will be ranked No. 1? Wonder no more. Spoiler alert: Unlike the Associated Press poll that has two-time defending champion Georgia ranked No. 1, the selection committee instead will rank Ohio State No. 1.

That’s right, the Buckeyes will be ranked No. 1 as long as they defeat Wisconsin on Saturday, while Georgia could be — gulp — ranked as low as No. 6.

How in the world do I know this? Yes, I have my sources, but not even my sources can predict the future.

What we can do, however, is look at how the selection committee historically votes. Unlike the AP Poll — which I vote in — the committee places more emphasis on the results against current Top 25 teams and isn’t influenced by preseason expectations.

Ohio State has two wins against AP Top 25 teams in Notre Dame and Penn State. That’s two more than Georgia, which won’t face a team currently ranked until November.

As long as there are no upsets among the top teams this weekend, I see the selection committee’s Top 6 on Halloween as follows:

1. Ohio State (Top 25 wins vs. Notre Dame and Penn State)

2. Florida State (Top 25 wins vs. LSU and Duke)

3 or 4. Oklahoma or Washington (OU win vs. Texas, Washington win vs. Oregon)

5 or 6. Georgia or Michigan (no Top 25 wins)

By the way, the committee only considers wins against current Top 25 teams. So, Georgia gets no credit for a Top 25 win vs. Kentucky since the Wildcats are no longer ranked.

Will the committee put the Bulldogs down at No. 5 or No. 6? Probably not, but if they base it on the strength of their wins, don’t be surprised.

If you’re still not convinced the selection committee won’t rank Georgia No. 1 on Tuesday, remember last year? Tennessee had two Top 25 wins and was ranked No. 1 in the 2022 initial poll, while the Bulldogs were back at No. 3.

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It just means more … fines? Since 2004, the SEC has fined schools for their fans rushing the football field and basketball court.

Al.com tracked down all the fines the SEC has handed out in the past 20 years. Only four schools have never rushed the field to celebrate a football victory: Alabama, Georgia, Florida and Mississippi State.

Here's how much each school has been fined for rushing the field (basketball fines, not included). Since the SEC has changed the fine amounts, there's a disparity in the amount per fine.

This week, I’ve got enough dreamy bowl scenarios to award a gold, silver and bronze medal.

First, the bronze: In the Holiday Bowl, I’m still projecting Oregon State and Clemson in the DJ Uiagalelei Bowl.

The silver goes to the Music City Bowl with Florida and Wisconsin in the Graham Mertz Bowl.

Those are two solid possibilities with quarterbacks facing their former team, but they don’t match up to my gold medal winner: Auburn vs. UCF in the Gasparilla Bowl. UCF coach Gus Malzahn against the team that fired him.

When my bowl projections were published Monday morning, I instantly was texted by some UCF friends with one question: When can we buy tickets?

Once again, FOX took home top honors last week with the Big Ten’s Top 10 matchup between Ohio State and Penn State averaging 9.96 million viewers.

The Buckeyes-Nittany Lions game ranks as the third-most watched game of the season behind only Colorado at Oregon (10.03 million) and Ohio State at Notre Dame (9.98 million), both played on Sept. 23.

Here are last week’s top-rated games, according to SportsMediaWatch.

Last week’s top five (all times ET):

1. Penn State at Ohio State, 9.96 million (FOX, noon)
2. Tennessee at Alabama, 8.01 million (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)
3. Duke at Florida State, 4.08 million (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)
4. Michigan at Michigan State, 3.73 million (NBC, 7:30 p.m.)
5. Utah at USC, 3.23 million (FOX, 8 p.m.)

And then there were none: Oklahoma, Penn State and UNLV — the final three teams that were perfect against the spread — all failed to cover last week. Penn State lost outright, while Oklahoma and UNLV each won by two points but failed to cover.

The best teams against the spread: Arizona (6-1), Oklahoma (6-1), Penn State (6-1), UNLV (6-1), Rutgers (6-1-1) and Oregon (5-1-1).

The worst teams: Illinois (1-7), Temple (1-7), Vanderbilt (1-7), Southern Miss (1-6), Georgia (1-5-1) and NC State (1-5-1).

For the first time in the Georgia-Florida series history, Georgia is more than a two-touchdown favorite for a third consecutive season against the Gators.

Georgia is currently a 14.5-point favorite over Florida. Last year, Georgia was a 23-point favorite but “only” won 42-20. In 2021, Georgia was a 14.5-point favorite and crushed Florida, 34-7.

This also will mark the 18th time in the past 50 years that Florida has been more than a two-touchdown underdog. The Gators are 0-17 in those games, having never pulled off an upset as a 14-point or bigger underdog.

This year also marks the seventh consecutive World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party with Georgia as the favorite. Georgia has won the last six meetings, covering in four of the six contests.

Georgia’s seven consecutive years as a favorite is the longest stretch for the Bulldogs in series history, as Florida was the favorite for nine consecutive years from 1993-2001 under Steve Spurrier.

If I don’t turn this around soon, I may not reach the necessary six wins to reach bowl eligibility. This week, I’ll go with UCLA -17 against Colorado (speaking of not reaching bowl eligibility).

UCLA head coach Chip Kelly is being coy on who will start at quarterback for the Bruins, but UCLA’s defense will be the difference. This starts a brutal end-of-season stretch for the Buffaloes.

Season Record: 3-6

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