Colorado vs Arizona State Odds & Picks: Fade the Buffs’ Defense

Coming off of back-to-back losses, the Colorado Buffaloes will head to the desert to take on the Arizona State Sun Devils.

This will be the first Pac-12 matchup against a team of a similar caliber for Coach Prime. Both of these teams desperately need a win if they want to have a shot at a bowl this year.

Neither pass defense in this game has been exceptional, pointing me towards my best bet for this game.

With a new quarterback at the helm for Arizona State, let’s take a look at how I think he will do in my preview for Colorado vs. Arizona State.

Over the last couple of weekends, I feel like I have had Colorado pegged perfectly. The Buffs are a team that can put points on the board in a hurry against weaker defenses, but will struggle against teams that are more physical and more talented in the trenches.

The offense has to succeed for Colorado to win, as the defense has been one of the worst in the nation.

Facing off against Arizona State this weekend, this will be one of the wins that the Buffaloes need to pick up if they hope to make a bowl game in year one under Deion Sanders.

If one thing has been made clear in Boulder, it’s that Sanders wants his son to throw the ball quite a bit. The Buffaloes pass the ball at the fourth-highest rate in the country. They're 33rd in Success Rate and 54th in PPA when doing so.

One of their biggest issues offensively has been their lack of explosiveness in the passing game, as they often hit a lot of short completions and screens that don't always translate into big gains.

Against an Arizona State defense that has done well at defending explosive pass plays, Colorado may be in for a tough day if it fails to pick up these chunk plays.

Colorado has shown little semblance of a defense so far this season. The Buffs rank 125th in Success Rate and 109th in Finishing Drives. Their passing defense is 131st in FBS in Success Rate Allowed and 115th in Passing PPA Allowed.

Just as everyone else has this year, Arizona State will have an opportunity to put points on the board against this unit.

Arizona State has been making its way through quarterbacks this season. After Jaden Rashada was injured and Drew Pyne failed to impress, the Sun Devils started Trenton Bourguet last weekend.

In his start against Cal, he was able to throw for 346 yards on the day, as Arizona State came up just three points short of victory.

With these quarterback issues, ASU’s season-long offensive numbers look pretty terrible. It's 126th in Offensive Success Rate and 108th in Finishing Drives. Through the air, the Sun Devils have thrown at the 25th-highest rate in the country, but are just 120th in Passing Success Rate.

The hope for Arizona State this weekend: Colorado’s defense is not stout by any means and maybe that means Bourguet can repeat his performance from last week to prove his legitimacy as a starter.

Defensively, Arizona State has been fairly average. Starting with the 131st-best field position in the country, the Sun Devils have managed to have the 74th-best Defensive Success Rate.

The passing defense has been their strength, as they rank 54th in Success Rate, 29th in PPA and 15th in Passing Explosiveness Allowed. This will be key against Colorado’s passing attack.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Colorado and Arizona State match up statistically:

Colorado Offense vs. Arizona State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	114	89
Line Yards	61	117
Pass Success	36	27
Havoc	94	114
Finishing Drives	76	100
Quality Drives	81	107

Arizona State Offense vs. Colorado Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	106	109
Line Yards	96	54
Pass Success	119	94
Havoc	113	120
Finishing Drives	110	101
Quality Drives	126	92

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	62	25
PFF Coverage	64	86
Special Teams SP+	105	65
Middle 8	99	74
Seconds per Play	23.4 (8)	25.6 (45)
Rush Rate	42.9% (132)	46.6% (112)

I’m not confident in what the final outcome of this game will be, but I do know that each team will throw the ball plenty. Colorado’s passing defense has been amongst the weakest in the country this year and will certainly be a target for Arizona State to attack.

Bourguet is making just his second start of the year, but against this Colorado defense, he should be able to pass effectively enough to go over his low total.

I believe that this total is lower based on what ASU has done on offense all season rather than looking at how the Sun Devils let Bourguet throw the ball 41 times a week ago.

At 240.5, I like taking the over on Bourguet here, especially with the possibility that Arizona State may be playing from behind.

In my opinion, this number should be pushing 260, so I would take this up to about 256.5.