If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
The Duke Blue Devils take on the North Carolina State Wolfpack in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Saturday, Nov. 7. Kickoff is set for 12:30 p.m. ET on The CW.
Duke is favored by -4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -188. NC State, meanwhile, enters as a +4.5 underdog and is +158 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 total points.
Here’s my Duke vs. NC State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 7.
Duke vs NC State Prediction
- Duke vs. NC State Pick: Duke Team Total Under 28.5 or Better
My NC State vs. Duke best bet is on the Blue Devils to go under their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Duke vs NC State Odds
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | -188 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | +158 |
- Duke vs NC State point spread: Duke -4.5 (-110), NC State +4.5 (-110)
- Duke vs NC State over/under: 51.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Duke vs NC State moneyline: Duke -188, NC State +158
Duke vs NC State College Football Preview
Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview: Take a Closer Look
A 6-2 record isn't anything to be ashamed of, but Duke's route to 6-2 certainly can cast some doubt about the validity of the team.
It has one win over a team ranked inside the top 50 in consensus power rating (Illinois before it fired its defensive coordinator) and losses to 2-6 Georgia Tech and 4-4 rival North Carolina.
The final month includes games at Miami and Wake Forest, both on the road.
Nitpicking Duke's resume isn't really fair considering head coach Manny Diaz lost all of his star players to the transfer portal in the offseason except running back Nate Sheppard, who leads the ACC with 961 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Quarterback Walker Eget has been perfectly serviceable, and Duke's offensive line landed on the Joe Moore Award midseason top 25.
The Blue Devils also field a very strong front six. Ends Bryce Davis and Tyshon Reed Jr. lead the unit to a top-25 sack rate (8.7%).
Duke allows a touchdown on fewer than 18% of opposing possessions (24th), led chiefly by a very strong run defense that has held opponents to just 3.5 yards per carry (26th). There's not much Duke doesn't do well defensively, an identity truly rooted in Diaz.
This formula is a translatable one. Duke doesn't turn the ball over on offense and leans on a very stout defense to win games.
But there's fair concern about quality of opponent and what that means for the remaining four games on the schedule with three road games and two against top-15 opponents.
North Carolina State Wolfpack Betting Preview: Interim Boost?
NC State benefited from an obvious interim bump last week in its first game under new management since 2012.
The Wolfpack took care of business against Cal despite making the flight home from the West Coast during the week. NC State also benefited from playing the game at noon ET (9 a.m. PT).
Now we get to see how long the Todd Goebbel interim bump lasts. NC State continues its three-game home stand against Duke and Syracuse before finishing its last two on the road at Florida State and rival North Carolina.
The biggest improvement came on defense, where NC State held Cal to just 29% of available yards and six first downs (5-of-18 on third down).
All season long, its defense struggled to keep offenses out of the end zone (109th in touchdown rate prior to Week 9), even struggling units like Vanderbilt and overmatched opponents like App State.
But that win can't be viewed as a season pivot moment. Cal traveled across the country and is a team with some deep issues — although a good win for NC State, it's an expected one.
On offense, it's been a one-man show dominated by quarterback CJ Bailey. But he has also shown to turn the ball over as that one-man show (Vanderbilt game, anyone?), and his offensive line isn't good enough or healthy enough to provide support.
Three different players have played meaningful time and three positions each and tackle Rico Jackson has filled in at every spot except center. Starting guard Yousef Mugharbil is done for the year.
Against aggressive pass rushes like Duke's, Bailey might be in trouble with no outlet.
Notably, NC State might return running back Duke Scott this week, who hasn't suited up since Week 5.
Duke vs NC State Pick, Betting Analysis
Oddsmakers lined this one NC State +5.5 to open, a soft line with the expectation that the market would set it right.
Initially, Duke took the move, bumping it up to NC State +6.5. But since then, the Wolfpack have been the side, and the line moved back down to +4.5.
This is a significant lookahead spot for Duke, which plays at No. 1 Miami next week. Duke-NC State used to be a stronger regional rivalry, but the two have played only four times since 2013 and six times since 2003.
Despite a recent rejuvenation — Duke has won each of the last three years — I'm not sure there's enough here to call it a true rivalry in football and, therefore, perhaps not enough of a refocusing spot to avoid the lookahead.
It's also Duke's third road game in five weeks and a spot where NC State may still receive the interim bump.
NC State has played the superior schedule and has the best win between the two (over Louisville in Week 6). But this is a bad spot for NC State's offense, particularly against Duke's pass rush.
Instead of rolling the dice as to whether Duke is fraudulent or whether the interim bump is real for the Wolfpack, I'm following the tea leaves here.
Both NC State and the under took money, but I can still buy Duke's team total above 28.5 points. Given the trend on both the side and the total, this is an inefficient line that probably sees buyback under 28.
Pick: Duke Team Total Under 28.5 or Better
