Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo Prediction, Pick: Tuesday MACtion Betting Guide

Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo Prediction, Pick: Tuesday MACtion Betting Guide article feature image

Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Eastern Michigan Eagles running back Samson Evans.

  • The Eastern Michigan Eagles face the Buffalo Bulls in Tuesday night MACtion.
  • With a solid defense, Buffalo enter this one as a favorite of -5 with an over/under of 37.
  • Check out Brett Pund's full Tuesday MACtion betting guide and pick for Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo below.

Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo Odds

Tuesday, November 20
7:30 p.m. ET
EMU Eagles Odds
Point SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline
-115o / -105u
Buffalo Bulls Odds
Point SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline
-115o / -105u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

It's time to dive into the Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo odds and make a pick and prediction for Tuesday night college football MACtion.

Eastern Michigan and Buffalo meet at UB Stadium on Tuesday night to close out the regular season with some MACtion.

The 3-8 Bulls won't be bowling this season, but the Eagles (5-6) can secure bowl eligibility with a win.

All of the motivation seems to be on one side, but I don’t expect this to be easy for EMU. Here's a look at my Eastern Michigan vs. Buffalo prediction.

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Eastern Michigan Eagles

Head coach Chris Creighton's Eagles have lost three of their past four during an end-of-season struggle. However, a win would still give EMU bowl eligibility in its fifth consecutive season for the first time in school history.

The program has had great success in midweek MACtion games under Creighton. Excluding the 2020 COVID-19 season, when there were no weekday contests, Eastern Michigan is 12-6 in midweek conference games.

If the Eagles want to add another victory, they'll need another strong performance from Samson Evans, who racked up three rushing touchdowns last week against Akron. Those three touchdowns brought Evans' season total to 11, making him the first player in program history to rush for 10-plus scores in three different seasons.

On the defensive side of the ball, Chase Kline and Joe Sparacio have combined for 258 tackles, which is 28.7% of the team’s total tackles and the most by an Eastern Michigan duo since 1999.

Buffalo Bulls

After winning the Camellia Bowl last season, things haven't gone according to plan for Buffalo head coach Maurice Linguist. However, the issues aren't on the defensive side of the ball.

The Bulls' stop unit ranks in the top 40 in the FBS in Rush Success, Line Yards and Pass Success. This is also the same unit that ranks second in the MAC in total defense during conference play, allowing fewer than 300 yards per game.

One of the key performers on this defense is Max Michel, who leads the league with four forced fumbles. He's two short of the single-season program record set by Anthony Scott in 1996.

The Bulls have also done a great job of dominating the time of possession. Buffalo has won the statistic in nine straight games, but the problem is it hasn’t led to enough points.

Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Eastern Michigan and Buffalo match up statistically:

Eastern Michigan Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
Rush Success10622
Line Yards8219
Pass Success12631
Finishing Drives6756
Quality Drives12078
Buffalo Offense vs. Eastern Michigan Defense
Rush Success70109
Line Yards113114
Pass Success13084
Finishing Drives7557
Quality Drives10772
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling20122
PFF Coverage7193
Special Teams SP+1299
Middle 88495
Seconds per Play28.8 (98)26.2 (47)
Rush Rate53.8% (81)52.5% (74)

Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo

Betting Pick & Prediction

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This total (36), which has dropped from the opener of 41.5, is extremely low, and the opportunity to back the underdog at just over a touchdown in a game with such a low total is one I can't turn down.

With that said, my best bet is to take the points with Eastern Michigan at +6.5. I would keep holding out for a +7, but I wouldn’t back this at anything lower than +6.

It's going to be tough for EMU to score, but I don't think the Bulls will score much either. In fact, the Bulls rank 130th nationally in Pass Success on the offensive side of the ball, which will make things more difficult against an average EMU pass defense.

The Eagles also have the advantage in Finishing Drives on both sides of the ball and rank higher in both tackling and coverage grading, according to Pro Football Focus.

Add in the fact that we get the better coach and special teams unit, and I just think this is too many points, especially with a very low total.

Plus, the Eagles will be motivated with bowl eligibility on the line, so I’ll take my chances with the visiting underdogs.

Pick: Eastern Michigan +6.5 (Play to +6)

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