The Florida International Panthers take on the Missouri State Bears in Springfield, MO, on Wednesday, Oct. 29. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Missouri State is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -180. FIU, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +150 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 50.5 points.
Here’s my FIU vs. Missouri State prediction and college football picks for Wednesday, October 29.
FIU vs Missouri State Prediction
- FIU vs. Missouri State Pick: Missouri State -3.5
My Missouri State vs. FIU best bet is on the Bears to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
FIU vs Missouri State Odds
| FIU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Missouri State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
- FIU vs Missouri State Spread: Missouri State -3.5, FIU +3.5
- FIU vs Missouri State Over/Under: 50.5 Points
- FIU vs Missouri State Moneyline: FIU +150, Missouri State -180
FIU vs Missouri State College Football Betting Preview
Florida International Panthers Betting Preview: Struggles Through the Air
Florida International has struggled to sustain consistency on offense throughout the season. Its passing game ranks 113th nationally in EPA Per Pass, producing a mark of -0.10.
Quarterback Keyone Jenkins has always been known for his running ability, but his 4:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio through the air hasn't been enough to get the job done.
I have many questions about whether the Panthers can take advantage of a softer Missouri State defense, especially since the Bears have looked better recently.
That lack of explosiveness for FIU has limited its ability to stretch the field or generate scoring drives through the air.
The rushing attack has been more potent, ranking 36th nationally in EPA Per Rush, but it hasn't been enough to offset the inefficiencies in the passing game.
The Panthers have gained 45% of available yards per drive, ranking 82nd overall, which places them near the bottom half of the FBS in offensive efficiency. Starting field position has also been a problem, as they typically begin drives on their own 27-yard line.
Their early-down production is also negative, recording a -0.01 EPA Per Play, which often leaves them facing difficult third-down situations.
FIU converts only 39% of its third- and fourth-down opportunities, one of the weakest rates in the country. With an average third-down distance of more than seven yards, sustaining drives will likely continue to be challenging, even against the Bears.
The Panthers are equally inconsistent defensively, but I'll warn bettors that their metrics are misleading. The Panthers had many injuries in the secondary to begin the season, but they're now much healthier and much stronger defensively.
The metrics show that their pass defense ranks 80th in EPA Per Play. In contrast, their run defense sits at 84th, meaning opponents regularly create efficient rushing opportunities.
FIU also allows opponents to gain over 51% of available yards per drive, ranking outside the top 100 nationally. On third down, opponents convert nearly 47% of attempts, keeping the defense on the field for extended stretches.
That inefficiency has made it difficult for the Panthers to flip field position or control the tempo against balanced units, but luckily, the Bears are a much stronger team at passing the ball.
I do like this improved secondary, but I have too many questions about the Panthers offense, which leads me to believe they'll be unable to keep up.
Missouri State Bears Betting Preview: Clark Leading the Way
Missouri State’s offense is built around efficiency and balance rather than explosiveness, but it has proven to be far steadier than FIU’s unit.
The Bears rank 82nd nationally in EPA Per Pass, but that doesn't account for quarterback Jacob Clark under center.
Clark returned from injury last week against New Mexico State, and I expect him to look much sharper. Clark is the best quarterback on the Bears' roster, so their offensive efficiency drastically improves when he plays.
Their running game is essentially nonexistent, but those metrics are also flawed. While Clark was out, opponents could stack the box more, considering they were less of a threat in the passing game.
The Bears convert over 40% of their third- and fourth-down opportunities, ranking in the top 40 nationally in that category. They also tend to start drives in slightly better field position than FIU, beginning at their own 28-yard line.
While these may appear to be small advantages, they often make the difference in matchups between closely matched teams. I give the Bears the edge in special teams as well.
Defensively, Missouri State has quietly developed into a reliable unit.
The Bears’ run defense has been robust at -0.01 EPA Per Rush, which ranks 75th nationally and indicates they consistently win at the line of scrimmage.
They allow opponents to gain only 43% of available yards per drive, and their early-down defense keeps opponents in long-yardage situations.
On third down, opposing offenses convert just 32% of attempts. That will force the Panthers into challenging situations all night long.
That defensive discipline has made it difficult for opposing offenses to sustain drives or mount late-game comebacks.
FIU vs Missouri State Pick, Betting Analysis
Missouri State’s balance on both sides of the ball, plus the edge at the quarterback position, makes it a strong buy here.
FIU’s offensive inefficiency and defensive vulnerabilities align perfectly with Missouri State’s strengths.
Expect the Bears to control possession, sustain drives and gradually pull away as the game progresses. Their offensive edge alone will put the Panthers in a tough spot to mount a comeback.
Missouri State’s advantage on early downs gives it a clear edge in controlling game flow, while its defense’s ability to force third-and-long situations should limit FIU’s offensive rhythm.
The Panthers have been overly reliant on the run, but Missouri State’s front seven is well-equipped to neutralize that approach.
I also think Jenkins will struggle through the air despite the perception that the Bears defense is a disaster.
Pick: Missouri State -3.5
FIU vs Missouri State Betting Trends
