Fresno State vs. USC Player Props: Mario Williams Highlights Best Bets in Week 3

Fresno State vs. USC Player Props: Mario Williams Highlights Best Bets in Week 3 article feature image

USC Trojans wide receiver Mario Williams (4) catches the ball for a gain during a college football game between the Rice Owls and the USC Trojans. (Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Fresno State vs. USC will be an absolute privilege to watch. It'll also be sweeter when we close out Week 3 with a betting win, folks.

The Trojans are 11.5-point favorites, with an over/under of 74. We've got you covered with insight and picks in those markets here.

On to Fresno State vs. USC player props, where over's will likely be popular in a game rife with dynamic skill players.

USC's duo of Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison comprise one of the best QB/WR tandems in the country; Fresno State's Jake Haener and Jalen Cropper would probably like to have a word, too.

However, I'm targeting Trojans wide receiver Mario Williams' receiving yards at PrizePicks.

Fresno State vs. USC Player Props

Mario Williams Over/Under 55.5 Receiving Yards

Billy Madison once found his groove at Webster Elementary School during a crucial game of dodgeball, informing his fellow classmates they were all in big, big trouble.

I like to imagine Lincoln Riley's holding the dodgeball in this situation, with the rest of the Pac-12 in line to catch a fastball right to the dome.

The first-year USC head coach has been nothing short of diabolical in two wins. His offense is averaging 8.3 yards per play, while the Trojans overall have tallied 107 points.

Caleb Williams is zooming up Heisman odds boards, and if there's a market to bet the Biletnikoff, I keep a little jar on top of my fridge with some spare cash in there, just for a rainy day; I'd wager a couple of those dollars on Addison.

However, Mario Williams — another OU product — has been sneaky good, churning out 117 yards on six grabs.

Mario Williams making defenders look silly

— Billy M (@BillyM_91) September 11, 2022

Although it won't stick down the long haul, Williams' average depth of target through two starts is 17.5 yards — nearly double from his '21 clip of 9.8.

I reckon his placement in the Trojans' offense — and playing opposite Addison — has helped free up some space down the field.

Williams has lined up in the slot roughly 85% of his snaps through two games, after playing out wide 90% of the time in last year's Sooners offense.

USC's logged video-game numbers so far, and here's the spooky part: The offense has only averaged 62.5 plays per game, a bottom-25 clip nationally.

In a game against Fresno State expected to produce more than 70 combined points, the upside's through the roof for the WR2.

Caleb Williams' passing yard over/under is set at 300.5, implying his slot receiver needs to comprise roughly an 18.5% yard share in order to cash.

I'm more comfortable pegging Williams on the aggressive side of 20%, setting the cushion good up to about 60.5.

Best Bet: Mario Williams Over 55.5 (Bet up to 60.5)

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