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The Georgia State Panthers take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Jonesboro, Arkansas, on Saturday, Oct. 24. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Georgia State is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -126. Arkansas State, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +105 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 58.5 total points.
Here’s my Georgia State vs. Arkansas State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 24.
Georgia State vs Arkansas State Prediction
- Georgia State vs. Arkansas State Pick: Georgia State ML (-126 · Play to -135)
My Arkansas State vs. Georgia State best bet is on the Panthers to win. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Georgia State vs Arkansas State Odds
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -105 | 58.5 -114o / -105u | -126 |
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -115 | 58.5 -114o / -105u | +105 |
- Georgia State vs Arkansas State point spread: Georgia State -2.5 (-105), Arkansas State +2.5 (-115)
- Georgia State vs Arkansas State over/under: 58.5 (-114o / -105u)
- Georgia State vs Arkansas State moneyline: Georgia State -126, Arkansas State +105
Georgia State vs Arkansas State College Football Preview
Georgia State Panthers Betting Preview: Too Good for the Bad
Georgia State sits at the perfect intersection of good enough to beat bad teams convincingly, but not good enough to hang with quality opponents.
This season, Georgia State is 4-2 with wins over Kennesaw State (114th in consensus power ratings), Northern Illinois (133rd), Old Dominion (116th) and FCS North Carolina A&T (3-5 record).
In those wins, the Panthers have stifled opposing offenses, holding them to 12.8 points per game.
But in losses to UCF and James Madison — granted, that's a stark increase in quality as UCF comes in at 52nd in consensus power ratings and JMU sits 47th — Georgia State allowed 40-plus and was beaten by an average of 46.5-26.
Quarterback Cameran Brown has been really solid, peaking against ODU when he threw six touchdown passes on just 14 completions against no interceptions.
A major issue comes with offensive coordinator Hue Jackson continuing to skew run (56.6%, 33rd-most) despite the run being the worst part of the Georgia State offense (117th in Rushing Success Rate).
The receiving corps is fairly deep, but that insistence on the run game is harmful, especially in games Georgia State can't afford to lose possessions in.
So, where does that leave Georgia State against the rest of its schedule, whose opponents average 100th in consensus power rating?
Probably with more convincing wins than any losses, especially since State plays host to bitter rival Georgia Southern. The route to 10-2 (yes… 10-2!) is very much there.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview: Owens Dependency
As of late August, we weren't sure who Arkansas State was going to start at quarterback. Amid the three-way battle, top running back Devin Spencer suffered a season-ending injury. The Red Wolves' season was in peril.
Texas transfer Trey Owens, a 6-foot-5 sophomore with a rocket arm, won the job and has been serviceable. He sits second in the Sun Belt with 1,616 passing yards, plus 243 non-sack rushing yards to complement his passing.
But Arkansas State's offense hasn't gotten the job done under Owens, ranking 88th in touchdown rate (scored on 29% of drives).
The issue is, teams can rush four and drop seven against Owens and the offense because there's no threat of a run game.
Though fairly balanced in run/pass splits, the Red Wolves rank 88th in Rushing Success Rate and 108th in Yards Per Rush. Solomon Baggett logs a negative EPA when handed off, and Owens does a lot of the heavy lifting on the ground.
The formula for opposing defenses: contain Owens, contain the offense.
In its two FBS wins this year, Arkansas State scored 17 and 23 points (two touchdowns apiece).
The defense is very hot and cold. Against more talented offenses like Memphis and South Alabama, Arkansas State's defense folded, giving up 42 and 56, respectively.
But against teams without strong quarterbacks, it holds its own. There aren't enough turnovers, sacks, or tackles for loss forced, leading to the seventh-worst Havoc rate in the country (10.5%).
Georgia State vs Arkansas State Pick, Betting Analysis
There's a pretty clear-cut line for both teams here.
Against teams outside the top 65 nationally, Georgia State has rolled both at home and on the road (31-17 win at Kennesaw). Against competent or better quarterbacks, Arkansas State gives up plenty of points.
So, what gives with the Panthers laying under a field goal here?
This is Georgia State's second straight road game in a stretch of three road games in four weeks (preceding the annual rivalry with Southern). Butch Jones is also very good as a small underdog, going 18-8 ATS as a 'dog of fewer than 10 points.
A real area of concern: Owens has been sacked eight times in his last two games, including five times against Southern Miss — a defense that had no business getting home that many times.
Georgia State's pass rush has been ferocious this year, sacking opposing QBs on 8.6% of dropbacks (20th-most). Only six players have logged more sacks than defensive end Xavier Esqillion (7), and his complement Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson isn't far behind (6).
As the primary catalyst for the offense and with few other options, Owens is prone to hold onto the football to extend the play. This will get him sacked another half-dozen times Saturday against this kind of pass rush.
Rather than lay the points with the road conference favorite, I'm picking Georgia State to win the game with a fair moneyline.
State already has its first road win under its belt (albeit up the road at Kennesaw) in what's a pretty difficult place to win (KSU went 5-1 ATS at home last year).
Pick: Georgia State ML (-126 · Play to -135)
Georgia State vs Arkansas State Betting Trends
