College Football Odds, Picks for Hawaii vs UNLV

Viva Las Vegas? More like Viva Los Rebels. The UNLV Rebels are off to an impressive 3-1 start and are set to host a stumbling Hawaii team.

However, Hawaii is coming off a win and looking to build momentum itself.

I've been impressed with the Rebels but haven't seen enough yet to be completely sold on them being a bowl team. Let's break down this matchup and see if the Rebels will keep rolling.

I don't care how bad Hawaii has been lately; there's something about head coach Timmy Chang's Run N' Shoot offensive philosophy that just gets the juices flowing.

Unfortunately, Hawaii's overall metrics are pretty ugly. Hopefully, Chang continues to make adjustments because this team is past the bottom 100 in Rushing Success Rate, Line Yards and Havoc Allowed.

A lot of this has to do with its inability to run the ball. The Rainbow Warriors have been one-dimensional in most of their games, which makes life much easier for opposing defenses.

When Hawaii is clicking offensively, it tends to put up a lot of Quality Drives. That'll be key against a UNLV defense that's 86th in Finishing Drives.

I am a huge Brayden Schager fan, and if Hawaii didn't have him, it may be on its way to a winless season. Schager has completed 64% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and nearly 1,400 yards passing thus far.

Defensively, the metrics aren't much prettier. However, I was surprised to see Hawaii ranks 40th in Havoc, which is an area in which it can expose against UNLV.

If Hawaii wants to pull off the road upset, it will need to create some turnovers and force the Rebels into a lot of passing downs. If not, this is a defensive unit that can't tackle or cover anybody. If this defense fails to dominate in the trenches, it could be a long afternoon.

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Quarterback Doug Brumfield is questionable, and if he sits out, it'll hurt the Rebels' chances of covering.

UNLV dropped 45 points last week against a miserable UTEP team, but backup quarterback Jayden Maiava was less than impressive. Maiava finished the game 15-for-27 for 190 yards and an interception.

You can argue the Rebels' offensive metrics are a bit skewed without Brumfield, but these numbers are a bit concerning.

I know I keep mentioning Hawaii's horrific defense, but I also feel the Rainbow Warriors can bully the Rebels in the trenches.

Conversely, UNLV's defense has impressed in defending the pass. The Rebels also sit 54th in Rushing Success Rate, 32nd in Line Yards and third in tackle grading.

There's plenty to like about this matchup for UNLV, but something seems a bit fishy. I just have this strange feeling that the Rebels are due to regress.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Hawaii and UNLV match up statistically:

Hawaii Offense vs. UNLV Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	125	54
Line Yards	129	32
Pass Success	99	125
Havoc	105	31
Finishing Drives	115	86
Quality Drives	55	72

UNLV Offense vs. Hawaii Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	91	96
Line Yards	89	75
Pass Success	71	95
Havoc	77	40
Finishing Drives	54	98
Quality Drives	37	124

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	118	3
PFF Coverage	105	74
Special Teams SP+	105	64
Middle 8	102	39
Seconds per Play	27.4 (77)	23.7 (14)
Rush Rate	37.7% (133)	58.2% (38)

If you're an analytical guy, you'd back the Rebels 10 out of 10 times in this matchup. However, I'm going slightly against the numbers and backing Hawaii.

Yes, Hawaii has yet to get going on offense, but I think Schager is due for a big game and UNLV is likely to regress a bit from its recent success.

Hawaii has a bye next week and would love to be 3-3. I think the Rainbow Warriors defense can cause enough Havoc to give Maiava issues.

I'm not sold on the Rebels offense, and if Hawaii's defense can step up a tad, the Rainbow Warriors will be live in this matchup. Even if Brumfield plays, I'll happily take the points in this spot. Let's roll the dice and get a cover.