The Iowa State Cyclones take on the Cincinnati Bearcats in Cincinnati, Ohio, on Saturday, Oct. 4. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Cincinnati is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -125. Iowa State, meanwhile, comes in as a +1.5 underdog and comes in at +105 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 54 total points.
Here’s my Iowa State vs. Cincinnati prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 4.
Iowa State vs Cincinnati Prediction
- Iowa State vs. Cincinnati Pick: Cincinnati Team Total Over 27.5
My Cincinnati vs. Iowa State best bet is on the Bearcats to go over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Iowa State vs Cincinnati Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | -125 |
- Iowa State vs Cincinnati Spread: Cincinnati -1.5
- Iowa State vs Cincinnati Over/Under: 54 points
- Iowa State vs Cincinnati Moneyline: Iowa State +105, Cincinnati -125
Iowa State vs Cincinnati College Football Preview
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview: Clones Dominant in Dismantling
The Cyclones didn't miss a beat after a much-needed bye week. Iowa State crushed Arizona for a second Big 12 victory in as many games, as offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser put on a clinic for how to confuse a defense.
Quarterback Rocco Becht had two big-time throws (despite not passing for a touchdown), and the usage of tight ends in direct snaps and as explosive passers was on full display.
The Clones' 3-3-5 stack defense held Arizona to just five yards per play, preventing any explosive drives on 12 Wildcat offensive possessions.
The three-man front has failed to produce a pass rush this season, but the back half of the defense grades in the top 35 in pass efficiency and coverage grading, per PFF.
Iowa State consistently switches protection from quarters to Cover 2, a look that assists against the opposing rush.
The Cyclones have been excellent at limiting ground explosives, ranking sixth in defensive rush EPA.
Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Preview: Explosive Offense Lifting 'Cats
Cincinnati won its first game in the Big 12, but not without a questionable box score against Kansas. The Bearcats' three-point victory came with a 24% post-game win expectancy, as they allowed the Jayhawks to average 10.9 overall yards per play.
The Cincinnati defense allowed quarterback Jalon Daniels to score on two individual drives that took one play, each a pass of at least 75 yards to Emmanuel Henderson Jr.
A fumble at the goal line and recovery by the Cincinnati defense in the fourth quarter assisted head coach Scott Satterfield in his first conference win of the season.
The Cincinnati defense was without its best player in nose tackle Dontay Corleone, but his return could come this week against Iowa State.
The Bearcats have struggled to create a pass rush or produce Havoc, with both numbers sitting outside the top 110 in FBS.
A high volume of Cover 3 has resulted in a 33% Success Rate. The nickel defense has been above average in stopping outside zone run concepts and opponent scoring attempts.
The great news for the Bearcats is an offense that's been electric through four games. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby leads the unit with a 10:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, lowering his turnover-worthy play rate to a minuscule 1.5% on 125 dropbacks.
The senior has been a part of an elite zone-read rushing attack, along with Tawee Walker and Evan Pryor, as Cincinnati is top-three nationally in Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards.
The passing game has been just as deadly against opposing defenses, as slot Cyrus Allen and wideout Jeff Caldwell each average more than 2.6 yards per route run.
Iowa State vs Cincinnati Pick, Betting Analysis
Without Corleone on the defensive line, the Cyclones could wreak havoc at the line of scrimmage with heavy 12- and 13-personnel packages.
The Jayhawks had a 62% Success Rate on 26 rushing attempts against Cincinnati without Corleone. Iowa State could achieve a similar Success Rate depending on the status of the Bearcats' best player.
The more identifiable deliverable in this game is what the Cincinnati offense can produce against the Iowa State defense. The Bearcats have already faced two Power Four nickel package defenses in Nebraska and Kansas.
Sorsby has dominated quarters coverage this season with a 64% Success Rate and an explosive play on one of every three attempts.
Considering Iowa State doesn't produce a pass rush, Cincinnati should continue to have success through the air, given its passing downs efficiency and EPA rank in the top 30.
The rushing attack is the difference in the game, as the Cyclones have severe struggles against both inside and outside zone read concepts. Iowa State has posted a poor 41% Success Rate or worse against zone read, along with overall defensive rush efficiency, Line Yards and Stuff Rate ranks outside the top 70.
Cincinnati has created quality drives on offense at a top-20 national rate and is entering this home game at Nippert Stadium as the sixth-best overall team in Finishing Drives.
Pick: Cincinnati Team Total Over 27.5
