The Kansas State Wildcats take on the Arizona Wildcats in Tucson, Arizona, on Friday, Sept. 12. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on FOX.
Kansas State enters this matchup as a 1-point favorite on the spread, with the moneyline sitting at -115. Arizona, meanwhile, comes in as a -105 underdog to pull off the upset. The over/under stands at 54.5.
Here’s my Kansas State vs. Arizona prediction and college football picks for Friday, September 12.
Kansas State vs Arizona Prediction
- Kansas State vs. Arizona Pick: Arizona Team Total Over 27.5
My Arizona vs. Kansas State best bet is on the Wildcats to go over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Kansas State vs Arizona Odds
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -105 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
- Kansas State vs Arizona Spread: Kansas State -1, Arizona +1
- Kansas State vs Arizona Over/Under: 54.5 Points
- Kansas State vs Arizona Moneyline: Kansas State -115, Arizona -105
Kansas State vs Arizona College Football Betting Preview
Kansas State Wildcats Betting Preview: Need a Road Win
The Wildcats have had a dreadful start to their 2025 season and should be 0-3. Instead, they enter Friday night 1-2, desperately needing a win to even up their conference record to 1-1.
Army dominated Kansas State in the time-of-possession battle last week, as the 'Cats lost as 17.5-point home favorites. The previous week, Army lost to FCS Tarleton State as a 14-point favorite.
It's been hideous on the offensive side of the ball, but last week, the defense let K-State down.
The Wildcats couldn't get off the field, and in typical service academy offense fashion, Army took the clock down and took advantage of its limited possessions.
The 'Cats need to improve their defensive performance this week, starting with stopping the run.
Kansas State is above average in Defensive Line Yards and Points Per Opportunity, but it has allowed too many explosive plays. It's also discouraging to see that it's below average in Rush EPA/Play.
Arizona has been excellent on the ground through two games despite its competition not being the best. Kansas State will need to tighten things against the run, or it will be in trouble again on Friday night.
Offensively, quarterback Avery Johnson has been efficient on the ground and through the air. His one turnover last week was not the best throw, but it deflected off his receiver.
Sticking with the offense, runing back Dylan Edwards has been out since the first quarter of the season-opening game against Iowa State, and he remains questionable to play. The 'Cats also lost starting offensive lineman George Fitzpatrick, which is very concerning heading into Friday's matchup.
The offensive line was already struggling with him in the lineup, so that's a massive loss. It's hard to project what type of consistency the offense can provide, especially without Edwards.
Through their first three games, the Wildcats have relied on explosive plays. Well, Arizona has done an excellent job of limiting its opposition in those areas thus far.
I have many questions about this Kansas State team, and I don't have much confidence that it can win on the road despite being a short favorite.
Arizona Wildcats Betting Preview: Looking to Continue Solid Form
It was a shaky 2024 season for quarterback Noah Fifita, who clearly missed having former head coach Jedd Fisch, who's now at Washington. Fifita has turned the page to 2025 and looked sharp through two games.
Given the competition, I'm taking the results with a grain of salt, but there's a lot to like about the offense.
Arizona underachieved offensively last season, but now it has new offensive coordinator Seth Doege from Marshall. He has instilled a fast-paced, uptempo offense in Tucson.
So far, the results have been excellent, and now they will get their first actual test against Kansas State. I like their chances of putting up a strong offensive performance, as the K-State defense has been underwhelming thus far.
Arizona should have plenty of opportunities to create explosive plays through the air and ground, considering Kansas State has allowed many explosives thus far in three games.
I've always been a massive fan of Fifita, and this is a perfect system for him to execute at a high level.
Defensively, I've been highly impressed thus far. The Wildcats' secondary ranks amongst the best in the Big 12, and many of their additions through the portal should pay dividends.
Kansas State has been efficient through the air, but Arizona's secondary is the strength of its defense. This unit has been excellent at preventing pass explosives thus far.
Friday should be a strong indicator of how legit Arizona is, but I give the Desert 'Cats an edge heading into the matchup regardless.
Kansas State vs Arizona Pick, Betting Analysis
I'd typically be all over Kansas State to bounce back here, but that team has been an absolute disaster. I also don't like some of the injuries it's dealing with, so I couldn't support it here.
Instead, I'll target the Arizona team total over. I'm a huge believer in this offensive system, and due to its lack of schedule strength, this is the best betting approach.
We have enough data on the Kansas State defense thus far, and its metrics are extremely underwhelming. I expect a significant effort from Fifita and the offense in their first home conference game of the season.
Pick: Arizona Team Total Over 27.5 (Play to 28)
