Kent State vs Fresno State Odds, Picks | NCAAF Betting Preview (Saturday, Sept. 23)

Week 4 will see Kent State travel to the other side of the country to take on Fresno State.

Fresno is currently undefeated and as a 28-point favorite, its odds to continue that streak look strong.

However, there's one unit in this game that I believe is particularly undervalued.

Let’s take a look at which unit that is, as well as my best bet for Kent State vs. Fresno State.

Kent State is currently rated as the worst team at the FBS level by SP+. This is due to its offensive rating of 6.6, which is in another stratosphere compared to everyone else besides Sam Houston.

This should really come as no surprise. Kent State returned zero offensive starters from last year’s team. The Golden Flashes replaced their entire coaching staff after Sean Lewis left to be Colorado’s offensive coordinator.

With those facts above, the 14% Success Rate that Kent State posted in Week 1 against UCF makes sense. It did improve to a 29% Success Rate (seventh percentile) against Arkansas in Week 2 before the offense finally showed up and looked good against Central Connecticut in Week 3.

I know that Central Connecticut is a lower-level FCS program, but it was good to see some offensive output from the Golden Flashes. They posted 7.21 yards per play and a 47% Success Rate (78th percentile).

This was done largely on the back of their passing game, as Purdue transfer Michael Alaimo posted 0.35 EPA per drop back.

The season-long numbers on Kent State are gross to look at, but you can see that it has made some modest improvements.

Defensively, Kent State hasn't been quite as putrid, as it ranks 83rd in SP+. The Flashes are 122nd in Defensive Success Rate and 107th in Finishing Drives.

While it’s not the worst in the country, I do think that Fresno could have success against this defense.

Through three games of the season, Fresno State is sitting at 3-0 with wins over two Power Five programs.

However, I don’t believe this team has been overly impressive so far. The offense has struggled to get going after replacing almost all of its starters from a year ago. The Bulldogs rank 69th in Success Rate and 64th in Finishing Drives.

The passing offense has been solid (47th in Passing Success Rate), but the run game has been an issue. Thus far, the Bulldogs rank 112th in Rushing Success Rate and 106th in Rushing PPA.

Last week against Arizona State, Fresno State was in control for the entire game. Playing with a mixture of backup quarterbacks, the Sun Devils weren't able to move the ball at all.

This led to Fresno being in a positive game script and winning 29-0, but the Bulldogs still only had a 57th-percentile Success Rate and 4.65 yards per play in this effort.

Defensively, Fresno State seems to be a middle-of-the-road unit. I mentioned this when I wrote about the Bulldogs last weekend as well, however, the defensive numbers are now skewed towards them looking better than they actually are due to one outlier of a game.

I don’t believe that this matchup with Arizona State is truly indicative of where this Fresno State defense is at.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kent State and Fresno State match up statistically:

Kent State Offense vs. Fresno State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	120	56
Line Yards	93	13
Pass Success	76	50
Havoc	116	51
Finishing Drives	99	36
Quality Drives	106	34

Fresno State Offense vs. Kent State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	113	122
Line Yards	82	123
Pass Success	48	110
Havoc	35	101
Finishing Drives	66	100
Quality Drives	44	100

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	128	113
PFF Coverage	83	33
Special Teams SP+	3	60
Middle 8	122	98
Seconds per Play	28.3 (87)	25.8 (46)
Rush Rate	66.0% (20)	44.1% (121)

I considered taking Kent State to cover the spread, and I still may, but my favorite bet on this game is for the Golden Flashes to go over their team total.

I believe that this Kent State offense has been improving and will play better than most believe this weekend.

This Fresno State defense is being propped up by its performance against Arizona State last weekend when it may not be quite as good as its season-long numbers look.

Now, I don’t think Kent State is just going to go crazy on offense, but 9.5 points is not a large ask whatsoever. I don’t know if Kent State will get any stops on defense, but I do have faith that it can get to double-digit points this weekend.

Pick: Kent State Over 9.5 Points