Liberty Bowl Sharp Betting Pick: How Pros Are Moving the Kansas State vs. Navy Spread

Liberty Bowl Sharp Betting Pick: How Pros Are Moving the Kansas State vs. Navy Spread article feature image
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Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images. Pictured: Skylar Thompson and Jordon Brown

Back when bowl season betting lines first opened (about three weeks ago), the Kansas State-Navy point spread was an immediate target for sharp bettors.

Kansas State finished the 2019 regular with eight wins, five of which came within the Big 12, and opened as a 1-point favorite over Navy in the Liberty Bowl. And even before Navy’s 31-7 win over Army, sharps had this line on the move.


Odds as of Monday evening. Check out FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.


Liberty Bowl Sharp Betting Pick

Kansas State vs. Navy

3:45 p.m. ET | ESPN

Within three days of this line opening, professional action had already triggered four Sports Insights Bet Signals on Navy. And while neither side has been particularly popular — as of Monday 51% of bets have landed on Kansas State — that sharp money caused oddsmakers to quickly flip the line to Navy -1.5.

It’s also worth noting that Navy’s half of the betting population has consisted of bigger bettors. They’ve generated 61% of actual money hitting the spread, and considering that sharper bettors tend to bet more than the average Joe, that discrepancy serves as another sign of the professional side.

If you’ve checked out the updated odds for this game, you’re already aware that the spread is no longer just -1.5. In fact, it’s recently made its most significant move, getting up to the most important number in football betting, -3.

Given the value added from the full field-goal spread, it’s possible that some buyback could hit K-State at the adjusted number. For now, though, it appears that the most convincing sharp action on this game is landing on one side.

Sharp angle: Navy (moved from +1 to -3)

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