LSU vs Arkansas Odds, Picks & Predictions | SEC CFB Betting Guide

LSU vs Arkansas Odds, Picks & Predictions | SEC CFB Betting Guide article feature image

John Korduner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: LSU’s Emery Jones Jr. (50) and Kyren Lacy (2).

LSU vs Arkansas Odds

Saturday, Nov. 12
12 p.m. ET
LSU Odds
-105o / -115u
Arkansas Odds
-105o / -115u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The "Battle for the Golden Boot" has a long history of upsets since the SEC added Arkansas in 1992.

An AP Top-10 team has lost this rivalry game on five different occasions since 2007. From the Miracle on Markham to a BCS knockout, this trophy game generally has implications at the national level.

This will be Brian Kelly's first game in the series, a must-win if his Tigers have aspirations to play in the SEC Championship and potentially make the College Football Playoff.

LSU fits the bill in the hangover department after a titanic upset over Alabama as a near two-touchdown underdog. Kelly did not hesitate in calling a two-point conversion play to end overtime, stating if given the chance to have one play to beat Alabama he would have taken the attempt "100 times out of 100."

Now, Arkansas and Texas A&M are all that stand between LSU and a trip to face Georgia for the conference championship.

Razorbacks head coach Sam Pittman went trophy hunting in 2021, sweeping every rivalry game and concluding with an Outback Bowl victory.

In less than a calendar year, the direction of the on-field product is nowhere near the roster that won a game on New Year's Day to start 2022. The Razorbacks are fighting for a sixth win to make a bowl, fresh off of a home loss to Liberty.

Despite a scoreless second half, the Flames never trailed even after their best offensive weapon suffered an injury in the second quarter.

Arkansas will have other chances to secure a sixth win, but an early kick against the SEC West division leader is a gut check for Pittman and the Hogs.

LSU Tigers

Brian Kelly had never beaten Nick Saban in over 30 years as a head coach before last week.

This is by far his masterpiece of a season even with two previous trips to the College Football Playoff and a BCS National Championship game loss to Saban in 2013.

Kelly hit the transfer portal early and often during the offseason, gaining more than 13 players and 15,000 snaps of experience — the highest mark of any team entering this season.

A winning path puts the Tigers in the SEC Championship game, but can the former Notre Dame coach avoid a hangover after defeating Alabama?

Kelly has avoided letdown scenarios more times than not in his career, a trend that includes Ole Miss and New Mexico this season.

The Tigers have thrived under quarterback Jayden Daniels, who torched the Alabama defense for nearly 100 yards on the ground with three combined touchdowns.

"I knew I had to make a play."

LSU QB Jayden Daniels came up BIG in OT to beat No. 6 Alabama 👏

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 6, 2022

The youth movement on the offensive line has created holes for Daniels in rushing attempts. Half of Daniels' zone-read rushes have come in the past two games against Alabama and Ole Miss. The former Arizona State quarterback averages 4.5 yards after contact and has created 37 missed tackles this season.

But more impressive is a 14:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio through the air.

Meanwhile, LSU's defense has struggled on the back end in coverage grading, but defensive coordinator Matt House is building a fierce trench against opposing offensive lines.

House brought a complicated playbook after several seasons as a linebackers coach with the Kansas City Chiefs. LSU ranks top-20 in Defensive Finishing Drives and Passing Success Rate.

The emergence of linebacker Harold Perkins has allowed LSU to utilize multiple personnel, as the freshman has lined up in the box, on the line and against opposing slot receivers.

Harold Perkins deletes Bryce Young

— Lonn Phillips Sullivan (@LonnPhillips) November 5, 2022

Arkansas Razorbacks

The Razorbacks suffered an embarrassing loss to Liberty with numerous factors contributing to the defeat.

The Flames shut down the Hogs in the first quarter, allowing a Standard Downs Success Rate of zero.

Passing downs were at the center of problems in the second quarter, as the Razorbacks generated a Success Rate of just 17%.

The powerful rushing attack of quarterback KJ Jefferson and running back Raheim Sanders was stuffed the entire game. Sanders posted his lowest yards-per-carry mark of the season after facing a schedule of defenses that includes Alabama, Cincinnati and Texas A&M.

Sam Pittman on KJ Jefferson's health: "I think he feels better this week than he did last week, so I expect him to be able to throw today."

— Christina Long (@christinalong00) November 7, 2022

The Hogs have lit up opponents through the end of October because of passing in standard downs. With Jefferson at full strength, offensive coordinator Kendal Briles should return to an open playbook in early downs.

The Razorback defense did its job well, shutting Liberty from scoring in the second half after the Flames lost running back Dae Dae Hunter to injury.

Arkansas coaches have directed nothing but praise to wide receiver-turned-defensive back Quincey McAdoo.


— Arkansas Razorback Football (@RazorbackFB) November 5, 2022

The emergence of McAdoo is critical for the Razorbacks with an off-field incident keeping one of the best defensive players on the bench against LSU. Safety/cornerback combo Myles Slusher was involved in an incident early Sunday morning, earning a suspension from Pittman for the LSU game.

McAdoo will be expected to fill Slusher's shoes, as the junior from Oklahoma has lined up at every position this season with a heavy emphasis at slot cornerback.

LSU vs Arkansas Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how LSU and Arkansas match up statistically:

LSU Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
Rush Success6115
Line Yards2101
Pass Success2261
Pass Blocking**8752
Finishing Drives2058
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Arkansas Offense vs. LSU Defense
Rush Success2673
Line Yards2545
Pass Success4918
Pass Blocking**630
Finishing Drives5116
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling5292
PFF Coverage99117
SP+ Special Teams9768
Seconds per Play26.4 (65)23.4 (16)
Rush Rate52.6% (71)62.5% (13)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

LSU vs Arkansas Betting Pick

Throwing out the hangover narrative on LSU after the win against Alabama, there are advantages for the Tigers offensively.

Arkansas has fallen to 115th in Rushing Success Rate on defense, an issue that will come against an LSU rush attack that's the best in the nation in terms of Stuff Rate.

The Tigers' offensive line has been owning the trench with the fortification of Emery Jones, Miles Frazier, Anthony Bradford, Charles Turner and Will Campbell as the starting rotation.

Poking around with some numbers this morning, and it's worth pointing out some jarring changes in #LSU offensive line production.

-LSU ranks No. 1 in offensive stuff rate (they don't get blown up at the line)
-LSU ranks No. 5 in pressure rate allowed

— Brody Miller (@BrodyAMiller) November 8, 2022

The loss of Slusher to injury earlier this season allowed numerous passing attacks to find success against Arkansas. The Hogs rank 117th in coverage but have improved a tackling grade to just inside the top 100.

The statistics speak for themselves for a defense that allows teams to convert from any down and distance. Arkansas has fallen hard, ranking bottom-10 nationally in Passing Downs Success Rate and third-down defense.

The handicap in this game is if a "sore" Jefferson can return to full strength. There were signs of life from the Hogs' passing offense in the second half, as Jadon Haselwood led with eight catches and Matt Landers gained more than 100 yards.

LSU will face an Arkansas offensive line that's sixth nationally in pass blocking, neutralizing a strength for the Tigers. Explosive plays will be there in passing downs for Arkansas, as LSU ranks 111th in allowing explosiveness against teams behind schedule.

Action Network projects LSU as a four-point favorite with a total of 65, both near the market consensus.

LSU will be allowed to dictate pace with an offensive line that's creating large holes for the rushing attack. The Tigers have dominated scoring opportunities, an area in which the Razorback defense continues to fall.

The Hogs will follow up with mild success on the ground, looking for explosives through the air against LSU's secondary.

LSU may need a few series to get the offense moving with an 11 a.m. local kick and temperatures in the 30s.

The wind blows in from the open north side of Razorback Stadium with a swirl in the south end zone, as 10 MPH sustained winds may limit each kicking game.

Look for a slow-starting game to be filled with explosive plays in the second half, as LSU will leave Fayetteville with the Boot thanks to a rising rushing attack.

Pick: 1H Under 31LSU -3

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