Texas A&M vs Miami Odds & Picks: Our Top Spread & Over/Under Bets for Prime-Time Matchup
Eric Espada/Getty Images. Pictured: Miami’s Gilbert Frierson.
- The Texas A&M Aggies host the Miami Hurricanes in a Saturday prime-time college football matchup.
- Our staff broke down their favorite bets for Saturday's showdown, including picks for the spread, over/under, moneyline, first half and player props.
- Check out all of our top bets for Texas A&M vs Miami below.
Texas A&M vs Miami Odds
|Texas A&M Odds|
-105o / -115u
-105o / -115u
By Dan Keegan
Our premier game of Week 3 features two historically successful schools trying to climb their way back into the sport’s upper echelon. For both Texas A&M and Miami, this game is a measuring stick of how far they’ve climbed in their quest to the mountaintop, or possibly a sign of how far they still have to go.
Miami is in Year 1 of the Mario Cristobal era, and the Canes are looking to shore up a defense that ranked 51st in SP+ last season. They handled Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss at home in their first two games and now head to College Station for the measuring stick.
Oddsmakers are confident in the Canes’ bounceback in the ACC, making them second in the conference to win the league at +450. A strong showing in this contest could lower that number significantly.
While the Hurricanes are just leaving base camp on their trek to the summit, the Aggies are in a stressful position. This marks the fifth year of Jimbo Fisher’s tenure in College Station, and his team just lost at home to Appalachian State.
Fisher has been searching for a quarterback, and a controversy is burgeoning between starter Haynes King and backup Max Johnson. Fisher has been known as a “quarterback whisperer,” but it’s hard to ignore the growing echoes that the game has evolved beyond him.
The defense is excellent, and it’s where the results of Fisher’s apex recruiting work shines most clearly. The front seven is mean, nasty and chiseled, while the defensive backs flow to the ball like an avalanche. That side of the ball ranks second in SP+ on the young season after finishing seventh last year.
This should be a fascinating game in front of the rowdy — and anxious — Kyle Field partisans. We should gain some insights into some of the teams on the next landing down from the true title contenders.
We polled 17 of our college football experts on staff to sort through and find a consensus on how to bet this big game. Let’s get into their analysis.
Texas A&M vs Miami Point Spread
By Cody Goggin
Last week against a much less talented opponent, Texas A&M’s offense was dreadful. The Aggies posted an Offensive Success Rate in just the 28th percentile in a game it probably should’ve won handily.
Haynes King looked completely outmatched as he averaged -0.63 EPA per play against Appalachian State. Now, LSU transfer Max Johnson is set to start against the Hurricanes.
Texas A&M’s defense is its biggest strength. It enters as the No. 2 defense in the country, per SP+, and held an App State team that scored 60 points against North Carolina the week before to just a 14th percentile Success Rate.
Miami has started the season against two easier opponents in Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss, but it’s shown up and taken care of business. In these two weeks, the Hurricanes have posted Offensive Success Rate ranks in the 99th and 92nd percentiles, leaving them with the best Offensive Success Rate in the country.
Tyler Van Dyke is the best quarterback in this game and has generated some buzz as a potential high pick in the NFL Draft.
Miami’s defense has also been successful in these two games, ranking 11th in the country in Defensive Success Rate. It isn’t projected to keep this up throughout the course of the season, however, as SP+ ranks it as the 39th-best defense in the country.
In the end, I believe both teams will have to throw the ball to win this one. I would not trust King to win this, and his job could potentially be in trouble if things go poorly.
Despite A&M having a very good defense, Van Dyke will get one of his toughest tests of the season, and I think he’ll succeed in keeping this game close and possibly even leading his Hurricanes to a win.
By CJ Vogel
The blueprint to beat Texas A&M is there, and it’s to let the Aggies continue doing whatever it is they’ve been doing the first two weeks in College Station.
Haynes King and the Aggie offense has been rather anemic thus far. Scoring just 14 points in its last game against Appalachian State, Texas A&M will now have to face its toughest defensive opponent off its most embarrassing loss in a decade.
The Aggies’ standard down EPA ranks 120th in the country offensively.
Texas A&M will have the fortune of playing at home, as Kyle Field will undoubtedly be an advantage. Though, when crowd noise becomes most advantageous is on third down, and Miami has been superb on those plays this season.
That’s going to be a tremendous issue for an Aggie defense that couldn’t get off the field against App State, as the Mountaineers went 9-of-20 on third down and 3-of-5 on fourth down while holding possession for 41:29.
This is going to be a one-score game, and I’m not sure the team that will win is the one that’s favored. Take Miami, and enjoy your night.
Staff Pick: Miami +6.5
Texas A&M vs Miami Over/Under
Note: When the college football staff was surveyed, the over/under sat at 48.5 points. The line has steadily decreased to 44.5 throughout the week. As of Thursday evening, we have pocketed a closing line value of 8.6%.
Last weekend was an unmitigated disaster for Jimbo Fisher and his Texas A&M Aggies. The then-No. 6 Aggies lost a tight game, which was largely a defensive struggle after Appalachian State scored the only three points of the fourth quarter to win, 17-14.
Even though the Aggies entered the season with the top-ranked recruiting class in the nation, per 247Sports, perhaps there just isn’t enough offensive firepower. In the last four recruiting cycles, Texas A&M has signed eight defensive five-stars to five offensive five-star signees.
The entire team is loaded with promise, but in the last two games, it’s been the defense that has been doing the heavy lifting.
In Week 1, the Aggies snubbed a venerable Sam Houston from the FCS ranks, 31-0. Then they went on to hold an Appalachian State team that appears to have a prolific offense to only 17 points after the Mountaineers put up 61 the week before against North Carolina in a losing effort.
As much as last week’s loss stings for the Aggies, it’s an indictment on the offense that couldn’t scrape together 18 points against a team that gave up 63 the week prior.
The current state of affairs also speaks volumes to the potency of the Aggie defense after two strong performances. Texas A&M enters the contest with Miami tied for 11th in the nation in scoring defense, giving up just 8.5 points per game so far.
Miami hasn’t been tested to the extent that Texas A&M has, and you could certainly make the case that neither team has truly been tested at this juncture.
But Miami comes into the game with a defense that has shown promise too. The Canes currently rank 16th in the nation in scoring defense after giving up 13 points and seven points against Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss in Weeks 1 and 2.
Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke will have his toughest test of the season at Kyle Field. After what could be described as a shaky start at best last week, Van Dyke faces a Texas A&M secondary that’s stacked with talent and ranks seventh in Defensive Passing Success Rate.
Look for the Aggie defense to relish in their role as the team’s strength. In particular, the A&M secondary will force the ball to the ground, where Miami has been the most comfortable in this young season.
Staff Pick: Under 48.5
Texas A&M vs Miami Moneyline, Props & Exotic Picks
This is a game I have had circled on my calendar from the very start.
I was high on Miami entering the season, and this is a must-win game if it wants to be taken seriously as a playoff contender.
After bringing in offensive coordinator Josh Gattis to revitalize the offense — a hire that made me fall in love with the Canes — Miami has steamrolled its lesser competition so far this season.
While Texas A&M will be its toughest test yet as one of the best defenses in the nation, Miami is more than capable of moving the ball with one of the best standard down Success Rates in college football. That weakness of A&M’s defense was on full display against App State.
While the defensive metrics are skewed because of the quality of competition, this will make or break Miami’s long-term success this season. Luckily for us, the Aggies offense has been brutal.
Even surrounded by immense talent, Texas A&M’s Haynes King has struggled to sustain drives when the offense lulls. If Miami’s offense continues to roll, this could get ugly fast for the Aggies.
While I’m on the spread and already posted it in the Action App, I’ll also take Miami on the moneyline in what will be a statement game for the Hurricanes.
Pick: Miami ML +195
You know what wouldn’t be a fun place to play, coach or be a fan last week? College Station, Texas.
After inking the top recruiting class of 2022, there were plenty of pundits throwing around the Texas A&M name in the national title conversation. But after a loss to Appalachian State last week, the Aggies can forget the dream of hoisting the natty in California come early January.
Aggies head coach Jimbo Fisher clearly has to make some changes. Priority No. 1 has to be getting more points on the board. Aggie quarterback Haynes King threw for only 97 yards last week on a 13-for-20 effort.
Fisher was in a similar situation last season with quarterback Zach Calzada. After Calzada stumbled in SEC play early on, Fisher opened up the playbook and Calzada led the Aggies to an upset over No. 1 ranked Alabama.
Fisher again finds himself in a similar predicament this season. King started hot against Sam Houston and then cooled off last week.
There’s no choice but for Texas A&M to come out in attack mode. Look for Fisher to take the training wheels off early and let King sling it around. King is the guy for the time being, and getting his confidence up heading into SEC play next week will be key.
I love the bounce-back spot for a refocused Texas A&M team at home after getting embarrassed on the national stage.
I see some value on the spread at a touchdown and no extra point, but my favorite bet is laying a hook on the first-quarter spread.
Look for the Aggie defense to continue to toe the line and the King-led offense to come out hot.
Pick: Texas A&M 1H -0.5
After what we saw last week, it’s hard to have confidence in any part of this Texas A&M team. After all, it scored just 14 points in a loss to Appalachian State at home. But who was responsible for every point the Aggies scored last week? Devon Achane.
Achane led the SEC with seven yards per carry last season, and he might be a candidate for the Heisman if his team wasn’t so bad.
He’s a veteran on this Texas A&M team and serves as someone someone the entire team can rely on to perform when it needs him most. With Isaiah Spiller gone, Achane’s reps and usage without a doubt will increase moving forward, especially if the passing game can’t find success.
Regardless of whether King continues to struggle through the air or not, I think Achane will be a major factor in this game. Miami’s defense is solid, but one of the few weak spots it has displayed — even against inferior competition so far — is stopping explosive runs. Miami ranks 113th in defensive rushing play explosiveness.
I locked in Achane’s rushing yards at over 65.5 on PrizePicks. But once player props are out, I’ll be looking to take him individually as well at 75.5 yards or better.
Pick: Devon Achane Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 75.5)
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