The Miami Hurricanes take on the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee, Florida, on Saturday, Sept. 4. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Miami is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -190. Florida State, meanwhile, comes in as a +4.5 underdog and sits at +160 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 54 total points.
Here’s my Miami vs. Florida State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 4.
Miami vs Florida State Prediction
- Miami vs. Florida State Pick: Over 54 or Better
My Florida State vs. Miami best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Miami vs Florida State Odds
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | -190 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | +160 |
- Miami vs Florida State Spread: Miami -4.5, Florida State +4.5
- Miami vs Florida State Over/Under: 54 Points
- Miami vs Florida State Moneyline: Miami ML -190, Florida State ML +160
Miami vs Florida State College Football Betting Preview
Miami Hurricanes Betting Preview: Clicking on All Cylinders
After a September schedule that kept Miami at home against top-20 opponents, the Hurricanes will have their first road game to open the conference schedule.
Head coach Mario Cristobal has his best team since taking over in Coral Gables in 2022, particularly in the department of protecting the ball. Miami ranks sixth in Havoc allowed, a statistic that combines fumbles, interceptions, tackles for loss allowed and other factors to measure offensive safety.
Led by Georgia transfer quarterback Carson Beck, Miami ranks top-20 in Success Rate, Finishing Drives and pass blocking.
The hiring of defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman from Minnesota has paid dividends. After facing the offenses of Notre Dame, Florida and South Florida, the Hurricanes sit top-10 in Defensive Rush Efficiency and Line Yards.
Mobile quarterbacks have been held at bay through four games with a grand total of 10 net rushing yards against the Miami defense.
If there's an issue to call out, the tackle grading has dipped to 91st, per PFF. After missing just seven tackles against the Irish in the season opener, Miami has missed 32 in the last two games against USF and Florida.
Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview: Looking to Bounce Back
Florida State left a hostile Friday night road showdown against Virginia with a loss despite a 65% post-game win expectancy.
The loss could be attributed to the defense, which allowed the Cavaliers to control the line of scrimmage and average nearly five yards per carry.
Virginia doubled the national average in methodical drives per game while averaging just 6.1 yards to go on third downs.
Florida State struggled to stop the inside zone run concepts while allowing four explosive passes, as cornerbacks Ja'Bril Rawls and Jerry Wilson allowed 10 catches on 14 targets.
The Seminoles continue to rank as one of the best offenses in the nation with a heavy tendency to run the ball.
Quarterback Tommy Castellanos runs inside zone exclusively with Oklahoma transfer running back Gavin Sawchuk. The pair averages 3.2 yards after first contact while forcing 23 missed tackles on 85 rushing attempts.
The Florida State offensive line also comes in as the top team nationally in Line Yards.
The Seminoles must clear up ball protection, however, after dropping the rock on the carpet six times in four games.
Miami vs Florida State Pick, Betting Analysis
The key ingredient to Florida State's success is its ability to establish the run with inside zone. This has been a strength for Miami's 4-2-5 defense so far, posting a 62% Success Rate against inside zone read concepts.
The Seminoles must work out of passing downs in this game after finding themselves in passing downs at the third-lowest rate this season.
Castellanos will see a mix of Cover 3 and man from Hetherman's defense, giving an advantage to Florida State. The Seminoles have diced up Cover 3 so far this season with a 58% Success Rate and a 25% explosive play rate.
Miami is expected to have success rushing against a Seminoles front that has an average Success Rate against man and inside zone schemes.
When the Hurricanes are forced to pass, Beck will predominantly see a quarters coverage zone look. Beck has been outstanding against quarters, generating a 75% Success Rate with an explosive on 24% of attempts.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for a spread of Miami -4, in line with the current market offering. The over, however, presents value on any number below the key of 55.
Miami will find average success in zone rushing with a high probability of explosives through the air to Malachi Toney and CJ Daniels.
As for Florida State, success against Miami's Cover 3 package will also generate opportunities for home-run scores with Duce Robinson as the target.
Pick: Over 54 or Better
