Michigan vs Penn State Football: Odds, Betting Picks & Week 11 NCAAF Predictions
Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy.
Michigan vs Penn State Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 / -115 | -210 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 45.5 -105 / -115 | +170 |
The college football world has been rocked by a low-level staffer within the Michigan program, Connor Stalions. Accusations of stealing signs from opponents are just the tip of the iceberg, with evidence pointing to a web of activity of scouting teams outside the Big Ten Conference.
While video continues to surface of Stalions on the Michigan sidelines with laminated sheets of hand signals from the other team, the latest news suggests teams were not only aware but looking to do the same to the Wolverines' sidelines.
While the drama unfolds for the national media, one question should be answered: Will the absence of stolen signs have a negative impact on Michigan football?
The Wolverines own a top-five cover rate since the 2021 season, but their failure to cover against Purdue in Week 10 may suggest a decline in the margin of victory for future games.
While the crows of the Big Ten are circling for a possible suspension of head coach Jim Harbaugh, Michigan's conference and national title goals are still within reach.
Head coach James Franklin looked to dodge questions about the scandal in his weekly press conference but insisted changes to Penn State's signals happened during the bye week.
The Nittany Lions are in a solid position to make waves at the national level despite their loss to Ohio State. With Big Ten divisional tiebreaker rules in place, Penn State holds an advantage over both its major division foes.
A win here by the Nittany Lions and a loss by the Buckeyes in Week 13 will push Penn State to Indianapolis with a chance to make the College Football Playoff.
It's time to dive into the Michigan vs. Penn State odds and find a pick in our betting guide for Saturday's college football game.
Michigan failed to cover in Week 10 against a Purdue team without a path to the postseason.
The Boilermakers exceeded the national average in Stuff Rate, as they averaged 4.7 yards per carry with only eight of their 28 rushing attempts getting stuffed.
Purdue struggled to generate scoring opportunities, with the only touchdown coming in the fourth quarter, but success in running the ball puts the microscope on Michigan's front seven defensively. The Wolverines rank top-five in nearly every statistical category on defense, led by a trio of linebackers that lead the team in tackles.
The 2-4-5 and 3-4 hybrid of defensive coordinator Jesse Minter ranks top-five in Defensive Havoc thanks to 44 passes defensed and 57 tackles for loss.
Michigan plays one of the highest amounts of zone coverage, dominating opponents with the use of Cover 3 and a small rate of quarters.
That dominance carries over to the offense, led by Heisman contender JJ McCarthy. The third-year quarterback is having his best season from a big-time throw vs. turnover-worthy play perspective.
Michigan’s JJ McCarthy with an absolute bucket drop to Donovan Edwards on the vertical route. Edwards showing off his wicked receiving ability for an RB too.
McCarthy continues to add to his resume as the QB3 in the 2024 NFL Draft. pic.twitter.com/UH8LiGdrm5
— Seven Rounds in Heaven (@7RoundsInHeaven) November 4, 2023
Michigan ranks seventh in On-Target Rate, a statistic that captures the accuracy of the throw and the ease with which the target moves in stride.
If there was an area that needed massive improvement, it came when opposing teams got through the line of scrimmage. McCarthy generated just a single big-time throw in 93 dropbacks under pressure last year. Fast forward to this season, and the junior has eight big-time throws with a 10% increase in adjusted completion percentage with a crowded pocket.
There's not a single coverage package that has limited McCarthy, who has blasted Cover 1 and Cover 3 throughout the season.
The Penn State offense has turned to explosives after its loss to Ohio State in Week 8.
Quarterback Drew Allar attempted just four passes beyond 20 yards in the loss to the Buckeyes, leaving plenty of questions for Franklin surrounding the lack of explosives.
Offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich said the efficiency wasn't there to attempt downfield passes, pinpointing soft coverages as the reason for the short passing game.
Through the Ohio State game, Allar had attempted just 15 passes beyond 20 yards but has since posted a total of 12 in the past two games against Maryland and Indiana.
Allar has regained his confidence thanks to four touchdown passes against Maryland, giving a heavy target share to KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Tyler Warren and transfer Dante Cephas.
Penn State remains in the bottom 10 nationally in Rush and Pass Expected Points, as the offense will play a critical role if it's going to beat Michigan.
The Penn State defense continues to be the best in the nation, ranking in the upper echelon in nearly every category, including Success Rate and explosives.
The Nittany Lions allow less than a point per opponent possession and produce a three-and-out on 30% of possessions.
Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz has been critical to the success of the defense, calling 3-4 and 3-3-5 personnel with a heavy 53% blitz that creates pressure on 64% of attempts.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan and Penn State match up statistically:
Michigan Offense vs Penn State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 13 | 2 | |
| Line Yards | 40 | 2 | |
| Pass Success | 1 | 5 | |
| Havoc | 1 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | 6 | 5 | |
| Quality Drives | 4 | 2 |
Penn State Offense vs Michigan Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 18 | 4 | |
| Line Yards | 25 | 5 | |
| Pass Success | 52 | 2 | |
| Havoc | 3 | 10 | |
| Finishing Drives | 2 | 1 | |
| Quality Drives | 18 | 1 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 3 | 77 |
| PFF Coverage | 4 | 13 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 19 | 110 |
| Middle 8 | 6 | 9 |
| Seconds per Play | 31.2 (132) | 26.9 (68) |
| Rush Rate | 58.5% (23) | 54.9% (43) |
Michigan vs Penn State
Betting Pick, Prediction
The elephant in the room may not be Stalions and the sign-stealing scandal but instead the lack of quality opponents on Michigan's schedule thus far.
The Wolverines enter the game with a strength of schedule rank of 111th, drawing the toughest remaining schedule in the nation with Penn State and Ohio State still on the docket.
There are only a few conclusions that could be considered concrete when handicapping Michigan football.
The Wolverines rank 125th in rush explosives, generating only 11 runs of at least 20 yards. This aspect has created a rank outside the top 100 in standard downs explosives, so Diaz's heavy blitz scheme should produce tackles for loss on the Penn State side.
Michigan also has the fourth-lowest rate of plays in passing downs this season, a contributing factor to short distances and a high rate of conversions on third downs.
While McCarthy has been fantastic against Cover 1 and Cover 3, this Penn State defense is expected to run Cover 2.
The biggest handicap in the game is if Penn State can find traction on offense.
Michigan's heaviest coverage packages are Cover 3 and quarters, the two most-seen coverages for Allar so far this season. Allar has been above average in terms of Success Rate against both looks but has provided explosives against quarters coverage with an average 0.28 Expected Points per Play. Penn State will be able to move the ball through the air.
Considering coverages and dual top-20 ranks in Quality Drives, the Nittany Lions' renewed appetite for explosives could generate scoring opportunities.
Both Michigan and Penn State have been excellent in the red zone this season, specifically in avoiding field goals and scoring touchdowns. The Wolverines and Nittany Lions rank inside the top 10 in red-zone touchdown rate, as both teams have combined for 72 touchdowns in 92 red-zone attempts.
The Action Network projection aligns with the spread at Michigan -5, but there's meat on the bone with a total projection above the key of 48.
Look for Penn State to find success creating a few explosives downfield.
On the Michigan side, no quarterback has improved their efficiency and big-time throw rate in a pressured pocket more than McCarthy. Keep in mind the key numbers in college football totals and get the best of the points going over.
Pick: Over 46 or Better
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