Mississippi State vs Arkansas Odds & Picks: Back Hogs Over Bulldogs

Editor's Note: Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers will miss Saturday's game against Arkansas with a shoulder injury, according to ESPN's Chris Low. Mike Wright is set to get the start.

This weekend, the Mississippi State Bulldogs will go on the road to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks.

These two teams are in the same tier in the SEC West, as both will be looking to pick up their first conference win of the season on Saturday.

There’s one team in this game that I believe is unfairly perceived due to the schedule it's played to this point. I believe this creates an edge to take advantage of these odds that are too low at the moment.

Let’s dive into my preview and best bet for Mississippi State vs. Arkansas on Saturday, Oct. 21.

Mississippi State has taken care of business in its nonconference games, but it has gotten off to a tough 0-3 start in the SEC.

Two of those games came against LSU and Alabama, which both dispatched the Bulldogs easily. The other was a seven-point loss to South Carolina on the road.

Mississippi State's offense this year has been explosive but not efficient. It ranks 95th in Success Rate but 55th in Finishing Drives and 22nd in explosiveness. It's also benefited from having the 29th-best average starting field position in FBS this year, which has helped put some points on the board.

The Bulldogs still lean into the pass at a high rate, ranking 39th in passing plays rate. However, they sit just 95th in Passing Success Rate and 86th in Passing PPA. On the ground, they're 85th in Rushing Success Rate, but they bump up to 37th in Rushing PPA due to their explosive games.

The Mississippi State defense has had a rough go of it to begin the year, ranking 118th in Success Rate and 131st in Finishing Drives. The main culprit for this is the passing defense, which sits 129th in Success Rate and 127th in PPA.

While the Bulldogs have been strong at stopping explosive plays in both facets, the rushing defense has been fairly average. Mississippi State ranks 67th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 51st in Rushing PPA Allowed.

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Arkansas ended up losing by just three points to Alabama a week ago, but the final score appears closer than the game actually was.

The Razorbacks played from behind all game and finally broke into the end zone on two fourth-quarter drives to make the final look more respectable. The adjusted margin in this game ended up at 18.3 points in favor of Alabama.

However, this doesn’t mean that Arkansas should be completely faded based on just the final result. While it's 2-5 on the season, the Razorbacks have started the year with a very tough SEC schedule, playing LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Alabama. Plus, none of those games were played in Fayetteville.

Their nonconference results don’t exactly signal that this is a great team, but the Hogs are likely a better unit than what their season-long stats show.

Still, the season numbers show exactly what you'd expect. The Razorbacks are 83rd in Success Rate on offense, coming in at 69th on the ground and 84th through the air.

While the rushing game has been more efficient down to down, the passing offense has been the 17th-most explosive unit in FBS.

The injury to Raheim "Rocket" Sanders will be felt, as he's out for this game. But Arkansas has played plenty without him this season, as Sanders has taken the field in just three contests this year and has only 34 carries.

The Hogs defense has largely been a strength for this team, ranking 44th in Success Rate, 32nd in Finishing Drives and 20th in Havoc. They've been slightly better against the run, ranking 41st in Success Rate against the ground game compared to 63rd against the pass.

If there’s one area in which Arkansas has struggled this year, it’s defending the explosive pass.

The Razorbacks rank just 114th in passing explosiveness allowed. This will be a key factor to watch because while Mississippi State doesn’t have the most efficient passing offense, it's found ways to generate explosives this year (38th).

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Mississippi State and Arkansas match up statistically:

Mississippi State Offense vs. Arkansas Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	85	40
Line Yards	36	55
Pass Success	96	40
Havoc	82	23
Finishing Drives	55	32
Quality Drives	38	81

Arkansas Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	70	67
Line Yards	69	67
Pass Success	84	127
Havoc	130	84
Finishing Drives	21	131
Quality Drives	100	109

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	38	28
PFF Coverage	57	82
Special Teams SP+	6	3
Middle 8	109	28
Seconds per Play	27.3 (74)	29.7 (115)
Rush Rate	51.1% (90)	57.9% (49)

The Razorbacks have had a poor start to the season, but their schedule has done them no favors. Against a divisional opponent that's closer to their skill level, I believe that we'll see the Razorbacks get back on track this weekend.

Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers is out Saturday, which only reinforces this pick for me.

This is a good spot to back the Razorbacks after their tough start to the year. Their difficult schedule has impacted their season-long numbers, which I believe is giving us a better price to back this team at home.