Missouri vs Arkansas Prediction, Pick, Odds: Tigers to Run It Up
Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Missouri’s Cody Schrader.
It's time to make a Missouri vs. Arkansas prediction and pick for this Black Friday college football rivalry game.
Missouri vs Arkansas Odds
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | -350 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | +270 |
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It has been a dream season for the Missouri Tigers. They stand on the brink of a New Year’s Six bowl game, needing one more win to earn their third 10-win regular season as members of the SEC.
Meanwhile, it has been a nightmare season for Arkansas. The offense never launched after an early-season injury to star running back Rocket Sanders — now the team is limping to the finish line. Will the Razorbacks be able to muster enough fight in this season finale rivalry game?
Let’s get into our picks and predictions for the new tradition of the Black Friday “Battle Line” game.
Missouri has taken a big step forward under new coordinator Kirby Moore.
A few things have happened: Moore has opened up a previously stodgy playbook, quarterback Brady Cook is playing good ball after an injury-ravaged 2022, the offensive line has improved, and a pair of superstars have broken out at the skill positions in wide receiver Luther Burden III and running back Cody Schrader.
Altogether, the team has leapt to 15th in Offensive SP+. This isn't a big-play offense, ranking only 47th in explosives, and it doesn't create many big plays on the ground (97th). But the offense is 25th in Success Rate and tied for 11th in FBS in Passing Success Rate.
Cook completes 67% of his passes, is at 3,077 yards on the season and sports a 77.6 QBR, good for 17th in the nation. His collection of receivers, led by Burden but also with complementary talents Theo Wease and Mookie Cooper, make this one of the most efficient passing attacks in the country.
The offense is one of the best in the nation at converting on their opportunities, ranking in the top 25 in Finishing Drives. They also do a great job at avoiding negative plays, ranking top 40 in Havoc Allowed — not that Arkansas is a very Havoc-minded defense, ranking only 97th on defense in creating Havoc.
Missouri’s defense is not as good as the offense, although it has mixed dominant performances (against Tennessee, against South Carolina) with questionable ones (against Florida, the first half against Kentucky).
Recent injuries to starting linebackers Ty’Ron Hopper and Chad Bailey severely hampered the Tigers against Florida; the Gators got their offense cooking once they veered away from side-to-side passes to receivers and focused on straight-ahead runs with their backs and the read option.
Missouri’s defense had its worst day of the season because backup linebackers Chuck Hicks and Triston Newson couldn’t hang physically with Florida.
It remains to be seen if an Arkansas team without running backs Sanders and Rashod Dubinion will also be able to take advantage.
The strength of the Tiger defense is efficiency — they rank top 25 in preventing Success Rate, although they do allow some big plays.
Blake Baker’s aggressive defensive play-calling has his unit at No. 33 in the country overall in Havoc Creation, which could be a big advantage against a rebuilt Arkansas offensive line.
Year 4 of the Sam Pittman era has been a slog for Arkansas, although athletic director Hunter Yurachek did recently give Pittman a vote of confidence and a commitment to a fifth year.
Pittman lost both coordinators in the offseason after stability for the first three years of his tenure in those roles. New offensive coordinator Dan Enos flamed out and has already been replaced, and Travis Williams from UCF has had some growing pains on defense.
The Arkansas offense has been a mess.
KJ Jefferson has been a mainstay at quarterback during Pittman’s tenure but is 88th in the country in QBR and has taken a whopping 41 sacks.
The passing attack ranks 13th in explosives, which gets at Missouri’s biggest defensive weakness. But 106th in Success Rate through the air doesn’t move the needle.
Without Sanders, the rushing game has been nonexistent. Freshman Isaiah Augustave got his first extended chance of the season last week on a depleted depth chart and delivered an impressive 101-yard outing against FIU. However, Missouri’s 14th-ranked run defense against Success Rate is a big step up in weight class.
The defense has been solid against the ground, but is very limited in stopping the big play through the air, ranking 127th in the nation against pass explosives. Burden and Wease could have a big day against the Razorback secondary.
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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Missouri and Arkansas match up statistically:
Missouri Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 54 | 61 | |
| Line Yards | 97 | 64 | |
| Pass Success | 11 | 53 | |
| Havoc | 68 | 23 | |
| Finishing Drives | 23 | 63 | |
| Quality Drives | 26 | 77 |
Arkansas Offense vs. Missouri Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 75 | 15 | |
| Line Yards | 45 | 21 | |
| Pass Success | 106 | 69 | |
| Havoc | 130 | 54 | |
| Finishing Drives | 43 | 99 | |
| Quality Drives | 81 | 69 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 57 | 24 |
| PFF Coverage | 68 | 49 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 58 | 9 |
| Middle 8 | 14 | 43 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.9 (66) | 27.9 (87) |
| Rush Rate | 54.2% (59) | 58.9% (49) |
Missouri vs Arkansas
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is an interesting situational spot.
The Tigers take this new rivalry more seriously than Arkansas, replacing their border rival to the west with a border rival to the south after leaving the Big 12. Head coach Eli Drinkwitz is a native Arkansan and has made it clear that he relishes beating this program.
The Tigers have a lot at stake as they look to clinch a 10-win season and likely a spot in one of the sport’s marquee postseason contests.
Arkansas is limping to the finish line and wants to turn the page from a “Murphy’s Law” kind of year. A portal roster flip is on the horizon; how hard will a team play knowing its future is in question?
But at the same time, this is a sendoff for quarterback and program legend Jefferson, so the locker room should be fired up to give their leader a memorable last dance.
There is a live-betting opportunity if the Razorbacks look flat. But this rivalry is usually a nip-and-tuck affair, and Arkansas has been competitive in almost all of their losses, even to Alabama and LSU.
I think Missouri will score a lot against a Razorbacks defense that really struggles to defend the pass.
Whether Arkansas keeps up will depend on Mizzou’s linebacker play and Arkansas’s motivation. I’ll take the Missouri team total over 31.5 and play it to 33.5.
Pick: Missouri Team Total Over 31.5 (Play to 33.5) |
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