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Last week, it was Ole Miss that was coming off a massive win at home and heading to Gainesville for a "trap game" against Florida. However, after Florida upset Ole Miss two years ago, oddsmakers told us they expected Florida to do it again, this time making the Gators 3.5-point favorites.
Not only did the Gators cover, they pulled away for a 52-28 victory and moved into the top 10 themselves.
Now, Florida finds itself in a similar position to Ole Miss last week, going on the road following a huge win for a top-25 matchup.
However, these matchups haven't been too kind to Missouri. Since 2024, Missouri is 20-0 against unranked teams and 1-9 against ranked teams. It's a 4.5-point home underdog this week.
If Florida does emerge victorious, you can expect a heavy dose of Jadan Baugh. That's where we'll begin my Missouri vs. Florida picks.
Missouri vs. Florida Picks, Parlay
- Florida 175+ Alt Total Rushing Yards (-154)
- Jadan Baugh To Score 2+ Touchdowns (+125)
- Donovan Olugbode Anytime Touchdown (+160)
- Over 56.5 (-115)
Parlay Odds: +800 (FanDuel)
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Missouri vs. Florida Odds
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -120 | 56.5 -115o / -105u | -210 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -102 | 56.5 -115o / -105u | +172 |
Florida 175+ Alt. Total Rushing Yards (-154) & Jadan Baugh 2+ Touchdowns (+125)
Through his first two seasons, Baugh had proven himself to be a very good college running back, rushing for over 1,100 yards last season.
Through the first four games of his junior season, he looks like he's on the verge of cementing himself among the all-time best at a program that's produced Emmitt Smith and Fred Taylor, among others, and a contender for the Heisman Trophy.
Per ESPN Research, Baugh is just the second player in the last 20 years to rush for 100 yards and two touchdowns in each of his first four games. Having run for at least 136 yards in each of his first four games, he's up to 600 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns on the year.
If he maintains his average from his first four games, Florida will run for at least 150 yards, but he hasn't been alone.
In addition to Baugh, Duke Clark has run for at least 50 yards in three of his first four games. He's up to 259 yards and three touchdowns as RB2 for the Gators.
Last week, Baugh went for 142 yards and Clark had 126 as the Gators ran for 302 yards against Ole Miss.
Florida is currently 11th in the FBS at 260 rushing yards per game. Missouri is allowing 100 rushing yards per game through its first four games, but there's reason to believe Florida will have more success on the ground.
Missouri is 41st in rushing success rate allowed and 107th in rushing explosiveness allowed, and now has to deal with two explosive backs.
Still, 175 rushing yards seems like a reasonable number for the Gators to clear given their hot start. A big day from Baugh — with some help from Clark — should help them get there, along with Baugh scoring two touchdowns.
Missouri Player Prop: Donovan Olugbode Anytime Touchdown (+160)
Like Clark, Donovan Olugbode was a four-star recruit in the 2025 class and ranked as the 95th overall player on the 247Sports Composite.
As a true freshman, he made an impact with 30 receptions for 401 yards and two touchdowns.
This season, he's already taken that next step as he already has 20 receptions and 313 yards. He also has already hauled in five touchdown catches, including at least one in every game this season.
As good as Florida has been offensively, it still has some things to shore up on defense. It ranks 98th in passing success rate allowed and is letting up 248.3 passing yards per game. Florida has allowed four passing touchdowns in the last two weeks, and all of them have been to receivers.
Keshaun Singleton, Chas Nimrod and Deuce Alexander have all had 90 yards and a touchdown against the Gators in the last two weeks.
While I like Olugbode's yards (60 is -138), he has better odds for a touchdown, which has a higher hit rate thus far.
Given the Tigers could be potentially chasing points in this matchup, I like Olugbode's chances to find the end zone once again.
Over/Under Pick: Over 56.5
With 49 points last week against South Carolina, Alabama became the first FBS team since 2019 to score 45+ points in each of its first four games.
Florida was one point off from joining the Tide, as it scored 44 points against Auburn. Instead, it's scored 50 points in three of its first four games.
The Gators are averaging 53.5 points per game, most in the FBS, with the last two coming against SEC opponents. That also means they're capable of getting to this over by themselves.
While the Gators may not get 50 points this week, three of their first four games have had 80 points. That's helped by the fact they're averaging 74 plays per game on offense.
While Missouri may want to slow this game down with a heavy dose of Jamal Roberts, three of its first four games have had 55 points at least. The Tigers are 2-2 to the over thus far, and both overs cleared 59 points.
With Austin Simmons, Roberts, Olugbode and Cayden Lee, the Tigers have the weapons to keep up with the Gators offensively. If they're able to do so, this game should have no problem getting to 57 points.
Missouri vs. Florida Same-Game Parlay
- Florida 175+ Alt Total Rushing Yards (-154)
- Jadan Baugh To Score 2+ Touchdowns (+125)
- Donovan Olugbode Anytime Touchdown (+160)
- Over 56.5 (-115)
Parlay Odds: +800 (FanDuel)
