Navy vs. SMU Odds, Picks & Predictions: Can Midshipmen Keep This AAC Duel Close?
Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Navy cornerback Matthew Peters.
- Navy travels to Texas to take on SMU as part of college football's Week 7 slate.
- The Mustangs have lost four straight games and are looking for their first American win of the season.
- Keg dives into this matchup and offers up his best bet.
Navy vs. SMU Odds
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +360 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
After losing the first leg of the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, the Midshipmen bounced back in a big way, beating Tulsa 53-21, covering their third straight game as an underdog — their second of the three in which they won outright.
SMU, meanwhile, comes into Friday night's game looking for its first win in more than a month. The Mustangs have lost three straight games, their most recent coming in blowout fashion in a 41-19 loss to UCF.
To make matters worse for the Mustangs, multiple players have decided to sit the rest of the season to preserve their redshirt and enter the portal.
The Midshipmen Rank 113th in FBS in seconds per play while the Mustangs are one of the fastest and rank second with 19.5 seconds per play. Will Navy be able to slow down SMU enough to keep this one close?
Navy Midshipmen
Coming into last week's game against Tulsa, the Midshipmen had scored 53 total points in their first four games.
They proceeded to double their point total on the season by beating Tulsa, 53-21. It was the most points Navy had scored since its 2018 win over Lehigh (51-21). Coincidentally enough, it also played SMU following that game, losing in overtime, 30-31.
Navy's run game has consistently been one of the best over the years. They currently lead all FBS teams with 57.3 rush attempts per game and are fourth in the country, averaging 243.8 yards per game.
The passing game hasn't found much success this season. Their best game came against ECU, in which quarterback Tai Lavatai completed seven passes for 152 yards. However, the SMU defense ranks 106th in opponent completion percentage and allows 263.5 yards per game. So while it's unlikely, Navy may mix in 10-plus pass attempts against the Mustangs.
The Navy defense will be the deciding factor in this game. I don't doubt the Midshipmen will succeed running the ball against SMU, but if the secondary can't make some stops, it won't matter how much they slow down the game when they have the ball. SMU leads the country in passing yards while the Naval Academy ranks outside the top 100, giving up 280.5 passing yards per contest.
One quick way for Navy to change this game will be with turnovers. The Mustangs are one of the worst teams in the country when it comes to turnovers and have racked up 12 so far this season in five games.
Southern Methodist Mustangs
In last week's loss to UCF, the Mustangs did not record a single passing touchdown for the first time this season. Quarterback Tanner Mordecai did, however, extend his interception streak to four games while the Mustangs scored a season-low 19 points in the loss.
SMU's three losses on the season have come against UCF, TCU and Maryland. UCF ranks fourth nationally in rush yards per game, TCU ranks 13th, and Maryland ranks 66th.
Navy ranks 12th; it's clear the Mustangs struggle to stop the run, and I think their struggles continue this week, as well.
The Midshipmen also rank fourth among FBS teams regarding time of possession — another major factor that contributed to SMU's losses against UCF and TCU.
One bright spot for the Mustangs will be their defensive advantage in the red zone. SMU may be 73rd regarding Defensive Finishing Drives, but Navy is even worse on offense, coming in at 105th.
Navy vs. SMU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Navy and SMU match up statistically:
Navy Offense vs. SMU Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 53 | 81 | |
| Line Yards | 117 | 58 | |
| Pass Success | 125 | 39 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 122 | 117 | |
| Havoc | 73 | 80 | |
| Finishing Drives | 105 | 73 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
SMU Offense vs. Navy Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 68 | 28 | |
| Line Yards | 51 | 2 | |
| Pass Success | 33 | 110 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 70 | 47 | |
| Havoc | 61 | 20 | |
| Finishing Drives | 57 | 9 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 110 | 84 |
| PFF Coverage | 112 | 57 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 78 | 51 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.7 (113) | 19.5 (2) |
| Rush Rate | 82.3% (3) | 43.1% (119) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Navy vs. SMU Betting Pick
Navy is one of the best teams in the country when it comes to Defensive Finishing Drives, ranking ninth. And while they do have struggles of their own in the red zone, I think its ability to get stops will control the Mustangs.
SMU has proven multiple times already this season it can't win games if the team isn't winning the time of possession battle. Navy knows that, and I think it's something they'll not only emphasize in this game but have success with, given SMU's inability to stop the rush.
Our Action Network projections make SMU a 12-point favorite in this game, and I was able to grab the Midshipmen at +13. I feel comfortable backing Navy here at +10 or better
Pick: Navy +10 or Better
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