The NC State Wolfpack take on the Virginia Cavaliers in Charlottesville, Virginia, on Saturday, Aug. 29. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Virginia is favored by -4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -192. NC State, meanwhile, enters as a +4.5 underdog and is +158 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 53.5 total points.
Here’s my NC State vs. Virginia prediction and college football picks for Saturday, August 29.
NC State vs Virginia Prediction
- NC State vs. Virginia Pick: Virginia -2.5 First Half
My Virginia vs. NC State best bet is on the Cavaliers to cover the first half spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
NC State vs Virginia Odds
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 53.5 -106o / -114u | +158 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 53.5 -106o / -114u | -192 |
- NC State vs Virginia point spread: Virginia -4.5 (-110), NC State +4.5 (-110)
- NC State vs Virginia over/under: 53.5 Points
- NC State vs Virginia moneyline: NC State +158, Virginia -192
NC State vs Virginia College Football Preview
NC State Wolfpack Betting Preview: New-Look Pack
The weight of the NC State offense will fall on the shoulders of quarterback CJ Bailey. The junior is back on the Maxwell Watch List after a breakout 2025 after denying transfer suitors in the offseason.
Offensive coordinator Kurt Roper will work a second consecutive season with Bailey, as the pair look to identify help at all other positions.
Starting with the trench, East Carolina transfer Jimarion McCrimon is expected to protect Bailey's blindside. McCrimon allowed 28 pressures over the past two seasons, a data point that could give any opponent a Havoc opportunity.
The receiver room brings a large question mark to start the season after the Wolfpack lost their top four targets. Buffalo transfer Victor Snow joins after receiving 88 targets and posting 1.8 yards per route run out of the slot for the Bulls.
Miami transfer JoJo Trader is limited on experience, with just 19 career targets over the past two seasons.
The lone offensive bright spot outside Bailey is lead back Jayden "Duke" Scott, a tackle-breaker who averaged 3.5 yards after contact and forced 32 missed tackles a season ago.
Pack make a statement in Tampa 🐺
NC State takes down Memphis, 31-7, in the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl!
CJ Bailey: 221 YDS, 2 TD + rush TD
Jayden “Duke” Scott: 108 RUSH YDS
Cade Fordham: 13 TKLS, INT@PackFootball | @PackAthletics | #GoPackpic.twitter.com/00nUFpSYSB— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) December 19, 2025
Defensively, NC State has to replace its entire defensive front six, a rebuild that could be a negative factor through September.
Portal additions such as Harvey Dyson and Joseph Adedire will recreate the pass rush up front, while tackle Isaiah Shirley and nose tackle Josiah Victor will be key leaders on the defense.
The defensive backfield may be on pause as Jamel Johnson's fifth year of eligibility awaits an NCAA ruling.
Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview: Protecting Beau
ACC Coach of the Year Tony Elliott will look to repeat as a conference stronghold. The Cavaliers lost the conference championship game last year but put together a surprising 11-win season.
New quarterback Beau Pribula was expected to leave Missouri for his old coach, James Franklin, at Virginia Tech, but ultimately chose the Hoos before winning the starting job.
Virginia returns one of the most experienced offensive lines in the ACC, with five grad-student linemen led by All-ACC tackle McKale Boley.
The bigs in the middle will create holes for Middle Tennessee transfer Jekail Middlebrook, who averaged 4.1 yards after first contact and has climbed to the top of the running back depth chart. Tennessee transfer Peyton Lewis serves as a physical complement who scored 10 touchdowns across two years in Knoxville.
I can't wait to see RB Jekail Middlebrook in a Virginia uniform in 2026. 🔶⚔️🔷 #GoHoos#UVA#collegefootballpic.twitter.com/0N7UcOtQnp
— Matt Wilson (@CoachWilson66) July 18, 2026
The Cavaliers utilized the transfer portal to populate a defense that returns just a handful of starters.
The secondary and defensive line interior will lean on Group of 6 players, but the status of a key linebacker will be important for Virginia. Kam Robinson will be a game-time decision after rehabbing an ACL.
NC State vs Virginia Pick, Betting Analysis
From an offensive perspective, there are more questions than answers for NC State. Bailey will look for new targets in the passing game, assuming a new blindside tackle can resolve pressure issues from previous seasons.
Virginia defensive coordinator John Rudzinski won't shy away from aggressiveness, as the Cavaliers finished top-25 in Defensive Havoc last season.
A veteran offensive line will help Pribula get comfortable with a new offense, as the all-grad student trench should boost the running game.
Running backs Peyton Lewis and Jekail Middlebrook may be the new thunder-and-lightning combination of all ACC backfield stables.
With the Wolfpack potentially missing a key component in the secondary and a nose tackle who has been ruled ineligible, the Wahoos should be able to sustain drives and create scoring changes.
The early projection from Action Network makes the game a pick'em, with home-field advantage making the Cavaliers a small favorite.
This spread has been on the move, but Virginia may have the upper hand in the first half with a roster that boasts more continuity.
Pick: Virginia 1H -2.5
NC State vs Virginia Betting Trends
