New Mexico vs UMass Predictions, Odds, Prediction: Target the Underdog in this Group of Five Matchup
Photo by Sam Wasson/Getty Images. Pictured: Dylan Hopkins (New Mexico)
New Mexico vs UMass Odds
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
UMass is looking to become the New Mexico state champs as it hosts the Lobos this week.
The Minutemen have already beat New Mexico State this season and will be looking for the sweep on Saturday.
That's about the most positive thing I can say about this game, except for the fact that it may be so bad that you can't look away.
These teams are ranked 129th and 130th in our power ratings, respectively, so call me a sicko if you must, but I can't wait for this matchup.
Read on for our New Mexico vs UMass prediction and pick in this college football betting preview for Saturday, September 23.
The Lobos, despite the bad record and power rating, have been surprisingly good on offense this season. They rank slightly better than average in Success Rate, Explosiveness and points per opportunity.
The defensive side of the ball has been where they've struggled. They rank 117th in points per opportunity allowed, 100th in Havoc and 98th in Success Rate Allowed.
But can the Lobos pull themselves out of their tailspin?
Well, I think the offense will play well on Saturday, as Dylan Hopkins has performed admirable against a gauntlet of an early-season schedule. He comes into this game with a 75.2 PFF grade, and I'd expect that number to rise with each game.
His play is reflected in the Lobos' advanced passing metrics — they rank above-average in Success Rate, PPA/play and Explosiveness when throwing the ball.
This Massachusetts defense is soft against the run, so I would expect New Mexico to keep it on the ground before opening up the play-action game and letting Hopkins air it out.
The Minutemen have had a rough few weeks. After beating New Mexico State in Week 1, they were trounced by Auburn, solidly beaten by Miami (OH) and then lost a heart breaker to Eastern Michigan.
Well, what happened?
Since the opening matchup, they can't move the ball and they can't stop anyone. UMass ranks 107th in Offensive Success Rate and 129th in Success Rate Allowed.
That's not good news against any offense, much less one that's actually decent. UMass ranks 123rd in Standard Down Rate on defense, meaning it isn't forcing anyone into "and long" situations.
That absolutely has to change if the Minutemen are going to beat New Mexico this weekend.
New Mexico vs UMass
Betting Pick & Prediction
I know UMass looked significantly better against its mutual opponent (New Mexico State), but I can't help but think this is a good matchup for New Mexico.
I'll take the dog in what is probably closer to a pick'em.
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