How Nick Saban’s Retirement Impacts Alabama Bets, Futures in 2024 & Beyond
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Alabama head coach Nick Saban.
The biggest domino in college football has fallen.
Nick Saban is set to retire, leaving behind a grand total of seven National Championships. He's tied with Bear Bryant with six national titles won at Alabama.
Saban and his wife, Miss Terry, have been the identity of Alabama since 2007, leaving a 55% winning mark against the spread.
Betting Impact of Saban's Departure
While the focus of the news will be on what Saban has already accomplished, there will be deliverables in the betting market moving forward.
Alabama has a swinging door at the coordinator position, as Saban leaves behind one of the largest coaching trees in history. The narrative was consistently negative on recent coordinator hires, as oddsmakers lowered Alabama's win total of 11 down to 9.5 in 2023.
Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees and defensive coordinator Kevin Steele did not inspire the confidence of bettors like Kirby Smart or Lane Kiffin.
Alabama was often a place to reclaim a career, as Steve Sarkisian dipped down and was resurrected in Tuscaloosa before leading Texas to the College Football Playoff this season.
No matter if the coach's name was Tosh Lupoi, Jeremy Pruitt or Derek Dooley, the system was always the star — not the names that filled the coaching staff.
At SEC Media Days, Alabama Coach Nick Saban compared choosing a starting quarterback for the 2023 Crimson Tide to being patient for his grandmother's carrot cake to finish baking. Jalen Monroe, Ty Simpson and former Notre Dame QB Tyler Buchner are competing for the job. pic.twitter.com/PTndbCr0Xq
— Ken Capps (@TexasSixManKen) July 19, 2023
Saban's famous carrot cake speech at SEC Media Days came after a slew of questions regarding new OC Tommy Rees and the program's inability to identify a starting quarterback before the season.
Alabama struggled through the first three weeks of the season, but the system took over the wheel and led the Crimson Tide to sweep the SEC schedule.
Alabama's Power Rating Without Saban
Now, a question has been raised — what's Alabama's power rating adjustment going to be when it replaces Saban?
Alabama has a standard in everything, from high school recruiting and transfer portal acquisitions to offseason conditioning.
Coordinators are taught the system, learning Alabama football with no regard to scheme and personnel at previous schools. This model has been replicated by Smart at Georgia.
Smart, Kiffin and many other coaches at many other schools have been influenced by Saban.
In our Action Network Power Ratings, coaching adjustments in the offseason can move a total of three points in either a positive or negative direction.
For Alabama to avoid a falling fast in the power ratings, a successful member of Saban's coaching tree must be selected as the new head coach.
Coaching Replacement Options for Alabama
Charles Huff, Pete Golding, Charles Kelly and Mike Locksley have all been the top recruiters in the nation as Alabama assistants. However, none of those names have had enough success outside of Tuscaloosa to win this job.
Saban is sure to have input on the next head coach, possibly eliminating former assistants such as Lupoi, Golding and Rees.
Clemson's Dabo Swinney is a former coach and player at Alabama but would bring a new system to the establishment. Neither Kalen DeBoer nor Marcus Freeman have ties to the Saban coaching tree — or football in the SEC, for that matter.
Smart, Sarkisian, Kiffin, Dan Lanning of Oregon and Brian Daboll of the New York Giants have been the most successful assistants outside of Tuscaloosa and would draw a neutral adjustment on the power rating.
Any other name not mentioned in the previous sentence could force Alabama to drop anywhere from 3 to possibly 10 points in terms of a power rating before kickoff against Western Kentucky on Aug. 31.
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