Ohio vs Buffalo Odds & Pick: How to Bet MAC Clash

It's time to dive into the Ohio vs. Buffalo odds and make a pick and prediction in this college football betting preview.

Did you think I would give up on MACtion after giving out a losing play in the 2023 Toilet Bowl? Sorry, folks — Mama didn't raise no quitter.

I'm back to give out not one, but two plays for this week.

Be on the lookout for my Bowling Green vs. Kent State write-up tomorrow. As delicious as that matchup sounds, we have some business to take care of first.

Midweek MACtion is in full swing as we head up to Western New York, where Buffalo will host Ohio. The Bobcats are coming off their bye week after losing a stunning game to Miami (OH), 30-16.

The Bulls, meanwhile, forced four Toledo turnovers last week but still managed to lose the game, 31-13. It's been a frustrating season up in Buffalo, and they certainly will have their hands full in this one.

Let's break down these two teams and uncover some betting value for Tuesday night.

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This is essentially homecoming for Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke, as the Canadian-born signal-caller grew up a short distance away in Ontario. With a tasty matchup against this Bulls secondary, I would be stunned if this added motivation didn't result in an explosive Bobs aerial attack.

Ohio is alive and well in its search for a MAC Championship berth, as its remaining schedule comes in on the lighter side. That's just what the doctor ordered, as this is a dream matchup coming off of the bye week.

Rourke is a big reason this offense has been humming, as this Bobs team ranks 25th in the country in Passing Success Rate. I expect them to exploit Buffalo's weak secondary and rely heavily on their passing game in this contest.

The one area of concern I have in this matchup is Ohio's ability to finish drives, where it ranks 108th in FBS. I realize Buffalo doesn't have a great offense, but if the Bobs settle for too many field goals, the Bulls could take advantage.

Defensively, this is a tasty matchup for the Bobs.

I've said before that Miami (OH) has the best defense in the conference, but I may have to pivot in that take. The Bobcats sit top-20 nationally in the majority of defensive metrics, most notably Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards.

Buffalo's ability to move the ball efficiently primarily comes from the ground game, so this is a huge mismatch.

Even if the Bobs offense is a bit slow out of the gate, I expect their defense to dominate from the opening kick. The Bulls shouldn't put too many points on the board in this one.

Sadly, I've backed this Bulls team a couple of times this season, and they've let me down in a big way. I thought this offense would be much better than its current state.

A lot of its offensive issues are outlined in the advanced metrics, as the Bulls sit outside the top 100 in Offensive Line Yards and Passing Success Rate.

Quarterback Cole Snyder has been an absolute train wreck, and he somehow continues to get worse each week. Snyder completed only 34% of his passes and threw two interceptions last week. The Bulls defense forced four turnovers last week, but their offense couldn't capitalize.

I have major concerns about the offense, and this is not the matchup in which it could find its rhythm. The long bright spot is that this unit is 24th in Havoc Allowed, which makes me question how Snyder is constantly turning the ball over.

Defensively, the numbers get a lot better when you dig into the metrics. The Bulls rank inside the top 35 in Pass Success, Rush Success and Line Yards.

This defense is good enough to win plenty of games down the stretch, but the problem is their offense will continue to be the sole reason they get destroyed every week.

I think this Buffalo defense can slow down Rourke and company, but it won't be enough to overcome its anemic offense.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio and Buffalo match up statistically:

Ohio Offense vs. Buffalo Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	76	27
Line Yards	68	12
Pass Success	25	33
Havoc	55	56
Finishing Drives	108	42
Quality Drives	51	67

Buffalo Offense vs. Ohio Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	58	13
Line Yards	103	13
Pass Success	127	28
Havoc	34	5
Finishing Drives	64	2
Quality Drives	111	20

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	125	122
PFF Coverage	90	74
Special Teams SP+	132	94
Middle 8	60	91
Seconds per Play	29.1 (101)	25.7 (46)
Rush Rate	52.4% (67)	49.5% (95)

I'm rolling with another contrarian pick this week, and I'm going to swallow the points with Ohio here.

This is a great spot for the Bobs coming off of the bye, and despite the Bulls' stingy defense, I think Rourke will find some success against a unit that ranks just 74th in PFF coverage grading.

Outside of Liberty, the Bulls haven't faced a good passing offense all season, so it's possible their defensive metrics against the pass are a bit inflated.

With a total this low, I have much more faith in the Bobcats' ability to provide the majority of the scoring.

I originally wanted to target an under in this game, but the Bulls offense is too bad to back. I could see Snyder turning the ball over multiple times, leading to easy scores for Ohio.

Look for the Bobs to keep their MAC title hopes alive as they look sharp out of the bye.

Pick: Ohio -7 (Play to -7.5)

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