The No. 13 Oklahoma Sooners (6-1, 2-1 SEC) host the No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels (6-1, 3-1 SEC) in a top-15 SEC showdown on Saturday, Oct. 25, at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Ole Miss sat atop the SEC standings before suffering a 43-35 loss at the hands of No. 5 Georgia last week. Now, it has 1 loss in conference play, much like Oklahoma, which sits at 2-1 after toppling South Carolina by a score of 26-7 last week.
So, who holds the advantage in this one? Let's take a look at our Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss picks and college football predictions for this marquee matchup on Saturday, Oct. 25.
Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss Picks, Predictions
By Pete Ruden
This is not an official College Football Playoff elimination game, but it might as well be.
The loser of this game will fall to 6-2 and will be on the cusp of CFP consideration. But looking at the schedules, there's no guarantee either side wins out to finish 10-2.
After this game against No. 8 Ole Miss, No. 13 Oklahoma has four ranked matchups to close the season against No. 17 Tennessee and No. 4 Alabama on the road, as well as No. 15 Missouri and No. 20 LSU at home.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, has upcoming matchups against South Carolina, The Citadel, Florida and Mississippi State.
The Rebels should be favored in all of those games, but if they lose to Oklahoma, that would mean their best win would be a five-point victory over LSU at home.
While they could certainly finagle their way into the 12-team field with a loss to OU, it's not a guarantee.
Simply put, this game means a lot for both sides.
Oklahoma enters this matchup as a 5.5-point favorite with the over/under sitting at 52.5.
So, where's the value in this meaningful matchup? We polled eight of our college football writers to get their takes on Saturday's spread and over/under, so let's dive in.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Oklahoma -5.5
By Joshua Nunn
The staff is somewhat split here on this line, but the majority feel that the Sooners are the right side in this matchup.
This Oklahoma defense is nasty, with rankings of first in Success Rate allowed, seventh in Finishing Drives allowed and first in EPA Per Play allowed.
The OU front has generated 28 sacks and 75 tackles for loss this season while allowing just 81 rushing yards per game and 2.5 yards per carry on the season.
While Ole Miss generated some productive plays and scored some points last week, Georgia doesn't possess nearly the pass rush that Trinidad Chambliss will see this week.
The Rebels were outgained by 160 yards in that game, and I really worry about their ability to run the football and stack successful plays together.
This OU defense will be the best unit on the field, and I think Chambliss feels the extra pressure this week. That will lead to a mistake or two that we haven’t seen much from him this season.
Oklahoma has adopted its offense to fit the mold of its defense. In doing so, the Sooners have been very comfortable in lower-scoring, defensive battles.
In prior seasons filled with high-scoring affairs, we'd see the Sooners take risks on fourth down and in the red zone. But with how well the defense has played, there has been a much more conservative approach this year.
OU quarterback John Mateer responded well last week against South Carolina, and I think we'll see him more comfortable this week. He should find ways to break down the Ole Miss defense with his legs and gash the Rebels on the ground.
Running back Tory Blaylock should also be able to find a little room against an Ole Miss defense that ranks 82nd nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 112th in explosiveness allowed.
I think this game will be a lower-scoring burn, but the OU defense will create problems for an Ole Miss offense that will struggle to generate the fireworks we saw last week.
Offensively, the Sooners will run the ball in the second half while doing enough to win and cover this line.
Over/Under Pick
Over 52.5 | 2 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 52.5 | 4 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 52.5
By Pete Ruden
This under starts and ends with Oklahoma's defense.
The Sooners lead the nation in Success Rate allowed, EPA Per Play allowed, Adjusted EPA Per Play allowed and yards per play allowed. They also come in at No. 1 in Passing Success Rate allowed, Rushing Success Rate allowed and EPA Per Pass allowed.
This unit is absolutely dominant.
That could cause problems for a first-year SEC starting quarterback like Trinidad Chambliss.
Chambliss has been a revelation for Lane Kiffin's offense this season with an 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but Georgia held him to a 52.8% completion rate and 263 yards, while LSU forced a pick and also kept him under a 60% completion percentage.
So, what's going to happen when he faces the best defense in the country — and one that has had plenty of success against dual-threat quarterbacks this season?
On the other side, Oklahoma's offense hasn't been the same since quarterback John Mateer underwent surgery for a broken bone in his throwing hand.
The Sooners mustered only six points in a Red River Rivalry loss to Texas. They scored 24 against South Carolina last week, but Mateer put up only 150 yards against a defense that ranks 73rd nationally in Success Rate allowed.
Everything is pointing toward the under here, which is why our staff leans that way.
Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss Odds
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
- Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss Spread: Oklahoma -5.5, Ole Miss +5.5
- Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss Over/Under: 52.5
- Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss Moneyline: Oklahoma ML -200, Ole Miss ML +165
