Oklahoma vs. West Virginia Odds, Picks, Predictions: Betting Value on Saturday’s Total (September 25)

Oklahoma vs. West Virginia Odds, Picks, Predictions: Betting Value on Saturday’s Total (September 25) article feature image
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Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jarret Doege.

Oklahoma vs. West Virginia Odds

Oklahoma Odds -17
West Virginia Odds +17
Moneyline -800 / +500 
Over/Under 55.5 (-120 / +100)
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV ABC
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Oklahoma Sooners kick off their interconference schedule by inviting the West Virginia Mountaineers down to Norman, Oklahoma. The Sooners have dominated this series of late, winning the last eight meetings.

The Sooners came into the season with high expectations and while they’ve managed to win each game, their performance has caused some to temper those expectations.

This Big 12 matchup may be what they need to get back on track.

Their offense is as explosive as they come, but being outscored by Tulane 21-3 in the second half and only putting up 23 points against Nebraska is concerning for the Oklahoma faithful.

The Mountaineers are coming off a big victory against Virginia Tech. It was a win they needed to boost their season after a disappointing opening loss to Maryland.

West Virginia’s calling card has been its defense, but it flashed some offensive explosiveness last week.

Will it be enough to challenge Oklahoma, though?


Oklahoma vs. West Virginia Betting Preview

Saturday, Sept. 25
7:30 p.m. ET
ABC

Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma Offense

Preseason Heisman favorite Spencer Rattler has had a peculiar start to what was supposed to be a huge campaign.

The big plays haven’t been there. Rattler’s average yards per attempt is 7.8 and five of his seven touchdown passes came against Western Carolina.

His slow start was even more apparent against Nebraska this past week. He only averaged 6.3 yards per completion and his longest completion was 23 yards. To his credit, he’s been very efficient completing nearly 75 percent of his passes, while also scrambling effectively at a much higher rate.

Though we know this offense has the ability to be explosive under Lincoln Riley, the West Virginia secondary is a great one to open up against.

What has not had ebbs and flows this season is the Sooners’ run game.

As a team, they’ve averaged over 5.4 yards per carry and accounted for 10 of the team’s 17 touchdowns. This fast start is reflected by ranking 17th in Rushing Success and 16th in Finishing Drives.


Oklahoma Defense

This was the year that Oklahoma was finally going to have a defense to match its offense.

Then, they gave up 35 points in the opener to Tulane. While that certainly dampened the perception of this defense, it’s still been solid.

The defensive line of Oklahoma has turned out to be formidable. They’re the best group at rushing the passer in the nation and are sixth in Rushing Success against them.

The unit as a whole has done a good job of limiting big plays and holding strong in the red zone. They’ve shown some vulnerability through the air, but have created turnovers.

This one may be the best we see all year:

You won’t see a better interception all weekend than THIS from Oklahoma’s D.J. Graham 🤯🤯🤯

pic.twitter.com/6qhasuYW0w

— Gridiron (@Gridiron) September 18, 2021


West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia Offense

The offense has featured a steady balanced attack.

The Mountaineers are led by senior running back Leddie Brown. After rushing for over 1,000 yards last year, Brown has picked up right where he left off.

He’s already scored five times and is averaging 5.2 yards per carry. He was a major factor in last week’s victory as he exploded for 161 yards and this 80-yard touchdown run:

Leddie Brown welcoming Virginia Tech to Week 3 💨pic.twitter.com/RrWP5bBswk

— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 18, 2021

Brown will be in for quite a challenge against the Oklahoma defense, as the Sooners rank sixth in the country in Rushing Success allowed.

Quarterback Jarret Doege may need to be more of a factor if the run game is shut down in this matchup. Doege has done fairly well this season, holding a QBR of 58.1, which is 62nd in the nation.

One glaring issue is that he’s been sacked six times through three games. That could spell big trouble with this Oklahoma pass rush coming.


West Virginia Defense

The Sooners’ offense is a daunting task for any defense, but it may be especially troubling for the Mountaineers’ unit.

While the West Virginia defense has been stout against the run, it can be exploited through the air.

The defense ranks 105th in coverage and has been unable to get to the quarterback with a 119th ranked pass rush.

Defensive coordinator Jordan Lesley is going to have to dial up a new scheme or it could be a long day for the Mountaineers’ defense.

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Oklahoma vs. West Virginia Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how West Virginia and Oklahoma match up statistically:

West Virginia Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 64 6
Line Yards 90 28
Pass Success 75 54
Pass Blocking** 44 1
Big Play 24 22
Havoc 78 40
Finishing Drives 34 82
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Oklahoma Offense vs. West Virginia Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 17 27
Line Yards 66 22
Pass Success 25 52
Pass Blocking** 4 119
Big Play 55 5
Havoc 24 32
Finishing Drives 16 16
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 5 44
PFF Coverage 105 59
Middle 8 7 7
SP+ Special Teams 67 9
Plays per Minute 60 73
Rush Rate 52.4% (80) 49.1% (99)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


The Sooners are one of the top teams in the country and hold some significant edges in this matchup, but the Mountaineers can’t be brushed aside, as nothing has come easy for Oklahoma thus far.

West Virginia will need a good performance from Doege since the running game should be very limited.

The Mountaineers showed against Virginia Tech that the weapons are there for Doege. Also, there will be openings in the Sooners’ zone defense.

This also has the potential to become a notable day for Rattler.

The Mountaineers’ secondary may have all sorts of problems with the speed of the Oklahoma receiving corp. If all else fails, they have a powerful run game to pound the ball into the end zone.


Oklahoma vs. West Virginia Betting Pick

This is the game for the Sooners’ passing game to get right.

What remains to be seen is if the Sooners’ secondary can improve as well.

Regardless, Oklahoma has put up points recently in this series, posting 40 or more in seven of the last eight meetings, including a stretch of four straight 50-point performances.

The total has been bet down since the opening and it’s now at a good buy-back point.

Oklahoma could carry us to the over, but I expect West Virginia to get on the board as well.

Pick: Over 55.5 (Play to 57.5)

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