Oregon vs Colorado Odds & Prediction: Bet Bo Nix, Ducks in First Half
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Bo Nix (Oregon)
Oregon vs Colorado Odds
Oregon heads to Colorado looking to extend its dream season. After their opening-week blowout at the hands of Georgia, the Ducks have ripped off seven straight wins to claw back into the playoff picture.
They will be taking on a Colorado team that is hoping for this nightmare 2022 to end. Karl Dorrell was fired after losing the first five games, and the team has gone 1-2 under interim Mike Sanford Jr.
Oregon has scored at least 40 points in its seven consecutive wins. Colorado has allowed 40 in five of its eight games. Should you lay the points and take the playoff team? Or can we find a more interesting angle?
What a season it has been for rookie head coach Dan Lanning, beleaguered quarterback Bo Nix and the rest of the Ducks. After a walloping in the opener at the hands of the national champions, the Ducks have rebounded to take command of the Pac-12.
The offense is incinerating teams. Nix is freed from the restraining bolts of SEC defenses; he is playing as if he is swinging a baseball bat that he finally got to take the weight off of.
The offense is one of the best in the country — full stop — and will be playing this week against one of the worst defenses in the country.
Nix has been spectacular. He has completed 72% of his passes for 2,221 yards, alongside 20 touchdowns and five interceptions.
He can hurt you with his legs, too, chipping in 441 yards on the ground. He’s rushed for 11 scores, which is tops in the Pac-12 amongst all players.
His offensive line has been tremendous. He has only been sacked once on the season, and Colorado has the fewest sacks in the country (only six on the year). Nix will have plenty of time to create big plays downfield on Saturday.
Oregon’s offense doesn’t look to beat you with big plays, though — it only ranks 115th in explosive plays.
The Ducks just move the ball consistently, methodically and without stopping. They are second in Rushing Success Rate and sixth in Passing Success Rate. They finish their drives and they protect the ball.
The defense has been middle of the pack (48th in defensive SP+). That Georgia game is in those stats and always will be, but the unit was also accommodating to teams like Washington State and UCLA, despite winning those contests.
The Ducks can be had through the air. Their secondary lost a lot of talent from last season, and the team ranks 117th in EPA pass.
This could be an issue with Washington and Utah on deck, and could be an issue for covering the large spread in the second half of a blowout.
Another concern I have is that this is a look-ahead spot. The Ducks' next three games to close the season are all crucial affairs — the aforementioned Huskies and Utes, and then the season finale against arch-rival Oregon State.
2022 Colorado will be making a run for the title of the worst Power Five team of all-time in many advanced metrics.
The Buffs check in at 121st in SP+, with the offense (105th) marginally ahead of the catastrophe that is this Buffs stop unit (119th).
Under interim coach Sanford, they stole a win over Cal in the week after Dorrell’s firing. But since then, they’ve been blown out by Oregon State’s backup quarterback and lost at home to another floundering outfit in Arizona State.
It’s impossible to find a single metric where Colorado can hang with Oregon. The only ones are in the explosive plays metrics, where Oregon’s offense largely eschews big-hitters because it moves the ball so efficiently.
Colorado’s defense is 129th in Success Rate, so Oregon’s offense will be more than happy to matriculate the ball down the field.
Freshman quarterback Owen McCown gave the Buffs a spark when he was inserted into the lineup against UCLA in Week 4, but he has missed two games with injury.
The staff has openly discussed the possibility of shutting him down for the rest of the year to preserve his redshirt.
The more experienced J.T. Shrout will likely start on Saturday, either due to McCown’s injury concerns continuing, or as a move to protect McCown’s long-term development.
Maybe the only glimmer for the Buffaloes is hoping "Road Bo Nix" rears his ugly head. Nix famously struggled with the stingy defenses in the SEC away from Jordan-Hare.
His consistent play this year signals that those days are behind him, although he has thrown all five of his interceptions this season away from the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium.
The Ducks have so many advantages that even a few Nix picks might not be enough to let the Buffs compete in this game.
Oregon vs Colorado Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon and Colorado match up statistically:
Oregon Offense vs. Colorado Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Colorado Offense vs. Oregon Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Pace of Play / Other
|SP+ Special Teams||51||25|
|Seconds per Play||26.1 (57)||25.7 (50)|
|Rush Rate||54.3% (60)||50.3% (84)|
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Oregon vs Colorado Betting Pick
Everything here points to an Oregon blowout. The offense is firing on all cylinders and should hardly be slowed down by this Colorado defense.
But 31.5 is a lot of points to lay, especially on the road and especially considering the stiffer tests that loom on Oregon’s schedule.
A comfortable lead, Oregon's bad pass defense and a team that is fighting harder under an interim head coach could result in the back door getting kicked in late.
So, I’ll avoid that entirely and lay the first-half points. Oregon will be up comfortably at the halftime whistle, and you can cash your winnings at the intermission and not sweat any late-game shenanigans.
I’ll take Oregon in the first half -18.5 at DraftKings and play it to 20.5.