Washington vs Oregon Odds, Picks: Bet Saturday’s Pac-12 Underdog
Via Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Penix Jr. #9 of the Washington Huskies throws against the UCLA Bruins in the first quarter at Rose Bowl Stadium on September 30, 2022 in Pasadena, California.
Washington vs Oregon Odds
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -105 | 73 -105o / -115u | +365 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -115 | 73 -105o / -115u | -495 |
A pair of high-powered offenses meet on Saturday night as Washington travels to take on Oregon in Eugene.
The matchup features two of the top-15 highest scoring offenses in the country, anchored by transfer quarterbacks who are having breakthrough seasons with changes of scenery.
Washington's Michael Penix Jr. leads the nation in passing by almost 25 yards per game, while Bo Nix continues to climb the Heisman leaderboard, scoring touchdown after touchdown.
With defenses that don't exactly set the world on fire, can we expect a shootout? Or does one of these teams posses a significant advantage that's worth backing on the spread? Let's find out.
Washington Huskies
In a battle of the Pac-12's best, Michael Penix Jr. presents a strong case as he leads the FBS in passing (3,232 yards; 359.1 yards per game). The Indiana transfer has been on a tear this year, throwing for over 300 yards in all, but last week's game against Oregon State, in which he threw for 298 yards.
The Huskies (7-2) have won three straight since dropping consecutive games to UCLA and Arizona State. Last week, featured a comeback win over a then-ranked Beavers team.
With Penix at the helm, it should come as no surprise that Washington ranks fourth in Pass Success. The Huskies will be the best passing attack the Ducks have seen since Week 1 against Georgia, when the Bulldogs sliced the Oregon secondary apart for 439 yards.
Washington's electric offense has forced opponents to try and keep up, often putting up big numbers against this Huskies defense. Washington has allowed 33.2 points per game over its past five games.
Applying pressure on Bo Nix is imperative to slowing the Ducks down. The Huskies are 19th in the country with 26 sacks, which is the most of any opponent Oregon has faced to date.
Oregon Ducks
Bo Nix SZN was in full bloom last week against Colorado as the potential Heisman finalist scored throwing the ball, running the ball and catching the ball. It marked the sixth time this season in which Nix accounted for at least four touchdowns in a single game.
Nix has led an offense that gets it done in both facets of the game. Oregon (8-1) is first and third in Rush Success and Pass Success, respectively, and has been a complete headache for opposing defenses.
The Ducks have scored at least 41 points in each game this season, except for the debacle versus Georgia in Week 1. Remove that Week 1 stinker and Oregon would rank first in the country with 48.1 points per game.
One of the biggest reasons for Nix's success has been the Oregon offensive line. Nix has been sacked just once all season.
Defense, on the other hand, has prevented the Ducks from completely blowing teams out. Pass defense will be of particular concern this week against Penix and the Huskies.
Only 15 teams have allowed more passing yards than Oregon. Some of the numbers have improved in the second half of this season, as the Ducks have allowed 45.0 fewer passing yards per game in Games 5-9, but Penix presents a different level of challenge for Oregon.
Washington vs Oregon Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Washington and Oregon match up statistically:
Washington Offense vs. Oregon Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 21 | 29 | |
| Line Yards | 74 | 21 | |
| Pass Success | 4 | 105 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 82 | 83 |  |
| Havoc | 1 | 97 | |
| Finishing Drives | 3 | 104 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Oregon Offense vs. Washington Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 1 | 90 | |
| Line Yards | 3 | 86 | |
| Pass Success | 3 | 95 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 33 | 27 | |
| Havoc | 5 | 113 | |
| Finishing Drives | 4 | 105 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 43 | 64 |
| PFF Coverage | 107 | 41 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 54 | 51 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.1 (36) | 26.0 (58) |
| Rush Rate | 41.2% (126) | 54.7% (58) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Washington vs Oregon Betting Pick
If both quarterbacks come to play, this is going to be a shootout, which is reflected with the high total (73). I have no interest in fading either of these offenses and think there's a better edge with the spread.
Michael Penix can sling it. Oregon's defense has struggled against the pass and has been extremely vulnerable on third down. The Ducks are 126th in the country in third-down defense (48%), while the Huskies offense is second (54.6%).
Even against bad teams like Colorado, the Ducks have struggled to get their defense off the field — the Buffaloes converted eight of 15 third downs, including an 81-yard touchdown on a third-and-10. Penix will make them pay, especially with Oregon's lack of pass rush.
Oregon and Nix are going to have a huge day and continue their dominance in this series (14-2 straight up vs. Washington since 2004), but the Ducks passing defense is vulnerable enough to allow the Huskies to keep this thing within two touchdowns.
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