Pitt vs Notre Dame Odds & Prediction: Betting Value on Heavy Favorite?
Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Notre Dame quarterback Sam Hartman.
Pitt Panthers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Odds
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +800 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -1400 |
Notre Dame looks to keep the positive momentum rolling forward after an upset win over USC when it hosts Pittsburgh as a 20.5-point favorite in South Bend.
Pitt was robbed of its third win of the season after a bad call ended up costing it a loss against Wake Forest. The Panthers have just two wins on the season, and it's unlikely that they reach a bowl game given how this season has gone.
Notre Dame got its season back on track after beating USC by a score of 48-20 two weeks ago and completely shutting down Caleb Williams.
The Irish are coming off a bye and are really clicking on both sides of the ball, so this game could turn into an absolute rout.
Things are not going well for the Panthers right now.
Phil Jurkovec has been benched in favor of Christian Veilleux, but things certainly haven't improved in the Pittsburgh passing attack.
Veilleux has started the last two games against Louisville and Wake Forest but hasn't been effective. Even though the Panthers beat Louisville, he went just 12-for-26 for 200 yards, and then against Wake Forest, he averaged only 6.7 yards per attempt.
In those two starts, Veilleux also has just a 42% Positive EPA Play percentage, per Sports Info Solutions, which is not a great sign before going up against a top-20 secondary.
As if it wasn't bad enough, Pitt also really struggles to run the ball. The Panthers are getting pushed around up front (89th in Offensive Line Yards), they aren't breaking off very many big runs (115th in explosive rushing), and they rank 105th in EPA/Rush.
Pittsburgh's defense has put up a valiant effort this season and is actually pretty decent. It held Louisville and Wake Forest to 21 points in back-to-back games, but it really struggles when it comes to giving up big plays, especially on the ground.
The Panthers rank 108th in explosiveness allowed and 98th in rushing explosiveness allowed, which is pretty concerning with Estime's big-play ability (21 runs of over 10 yards).
Pittsburgh has done a decent job at limiting teams once they get in the red zone, and it ranks top-50 against the pass.
However, the best quarterback it's faced this season was North Carolina's Drake Maye, who torched this unit for almost 300 yards on only 30 pass attempts.
Even though Notre Dame has had some subpar offensive performances this year, Sam Hartman is still one of the best quarterbacks in college football.
He's averaging 8.9 yards per attempt this season to go along with 18 touchdown passes and 16 big-time throws, which ranks top-five in college football. He also ranks inside the top 20 in EPA.
The Irish rushing attack has been solid, ranking 27th in Rushing Success Rate behind lead back Audric Estime. Estime is averaging an absurd 6.2 yards per carry with 4.2 yards coming after contact.
He owns a PFF rushing grade of 89.4, which ranks sixth in FBS, and has forced 39 missed tackles.
Notre Dame's defense has been outstanding this season and the way it held Williams in check in its most recent outing was incredibly impressive. Not many defenses are capable of holding the reigning Heisman winner to just 199 yards passing and 5.4 yards per attempt while forcing three interceptions.
For the season, Notre Dame ranks top-20 in Passing Success Rate Allowed, PFF coverage grade and EPA/Pass Allowed.
They will be facing a below-average quarterback in this matchup, so the focus is going to be on stopping the run, which the Irish have done this season.
USC averaged just 2.8 yards per carry against Notre Dame — a top-25 unit in Rushing Success Rate Allowed — so I have a hard time seeing how Pittsburgh is going to move the ball.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Pitt and Notre Dame match up statistically:
Pitt Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 67 | 24 | |
| Line Yards | 89 | 35 | |
| Pass Success | 121 | 18 | |
| Havoc | 86 | 64 | |
| Finishing Drives | 65 | 32 | |
| Quality Drives | 125 | 25 |
Notre Dame Offense vs. Pitt Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 29 | 25 | |
| Line Yards | 46 | 31 | |
| Pass Success | 44 | 48 | |
| Havoc | 26 | 92 | |
| Finishing Drives | 14 | 42 | |
| Quality Drives | 44 | 56 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 117 | 59 |
| PFF Coverage | 79 | 18 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 93 | 78 |
| Middle 8 | 108 | 47 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.1 (90) | 29.3 (107) |
| Rush Rate | 52.0% (84) | 54.7% (46) |
Pitt vs Notre Dame
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a perfect spot for Notre Dame. Coming off a bye, the Fighting Irish have a chance to flex their muscles and blow out Pittsburgh.
The quarterback situation for the Panthers is a tad concerning considering Veilleux hasn't been very effective and he's now facing a solid secondary.
The Panthers defense has been halfway decent, but Notre Dame can really control this game on the ground with Estime. With his ability to break tackles and the fact that Panthers rank 117th in tackle grading, the Irish are going to be incredibly difficult to slow down.
With all of the pressure on Veilleux and Pitt's run game, I have a hard time seeing how the Panthers cover this number.
I have the Irish projected at -24.1, so I like the value on Notre Dame -20.5.
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