NCAAF Odds, Pick for Pitt vs Syracuse

Syracuse and Pittsburgh meet at the historic Yankee Stadium on Saturday afternoon for an Atlantic Coast Conference matchup.

The Orange started hot this year before dropping five straight to enter this game at 4-5 overall and 0-5 in the ACC.

Meanwhile, this year has been disappointing for the Panthers, who are set to miss bowl season with their 2-7 record.

This is the 100th anniversary of the first college football game played at this stadium, which was actually between these two programs. There were three total points in that contest, and I think there may not be many points in this one.

There is no hiding the struggles this year for veteran coach Pat Narduzzi. This season has not gone to plan for the program.

One of the issues has been the difficult schedule the Panthers have played. Pittsburgh is just one of six teams that will play 11 Power Five opponents in 2023.

The other has been the headaches of finding consistent play at the quarterback position. Narduzzi started the year with Boston College transfer Phil Jurkovec before Christian Veilleux took over for the last four games.

The one unit that has played well has been the defense. On the season, the Panthers rank 11th nationally in tackles for loss and 21st in sacks.

Entering the Clemson game with a perfect 4-0 record, there was a lot of excitement for that matchup and the program under Dino Babers.

However, it all crumbled after September.

Syracuse has lost every conference game and hasn't even been competitive. The Orange are 0-5 ATS in their past five.

To make matters worse, the team is dealing with quarterback injuries, with Garrett Shrader and Carlos Del Rio-Wilson banged up. Rio-Wilson got his first start last week against BC, leading the team to just 10 points.

With the uncertainty under center, I expect the Orange to give LeQuint Allen Jr. plenty of carries on the ground, especially after his career-high 142 yards last week. He has four 100-plus yard rushing performances this season and will need to play well again here.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Pitt and Syracuse match up statistically:

Pitt Offense vs. Syracuse Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	60	85
Line Yards	87	43
Pass Success	129	43
Havoc	86	28
Finishing Drives	82	20
Quality Drives	133	66

Syracuse Offense vs. Pitt Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	119	24
Line Yards	82	21
Pass Success	78	92
Havoc	80	92
Finishing Drives	85	39
Quality Drives	108	58

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	120	21
PFF Coverage	100	30
Special Teams SP+	130	95
Middle 8	120	62
Seconds per Play	27.9 (85)	24.5 (24)
Rush Rate	49.3% (101)	56.4% (51)

There are big question marks on who will play quarterback for Syracuse and how effective that player will be. Regardless, I think both defenses are better than the offenses here, leading me to the total.

With that said, my best bet here is Under 37.5 points. I wouldn’t go lower than 37, as that is the lowest key number for low totals.

I struggle to see an avenue for either offense to string together consistent yards. Both teams are outside the Top 100 in quality drives, ranking 82nd and 85th in Finishing Drives on offense, respectively.

Meanwhile, both defenses are inside the Top 40 in Finishing Drives allowed. So even if an offense gets inside the 40, I see them having to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns.

With the injuries at quarterback for the Orange, you would expect them to lean on the ground game. However, Pittsburgh is in the Top 25 in Rush Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards.

Regarding the side, I lean toward the Panthers. The issue is that they have not played well away from home. I also would not want to lay any points with this Pitt team in a game with a total set this low.

So, give me an under in what could be an ugly game at Yankee Stadium.

Pick: Under 37.5 (Play to 37)

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