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The Sacramento State Hornets take on the Central Michigan Chippewas in Mount Pleasant, Michigan, on Wednesday, Nov. 11. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Central Michigan is favored by -17.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1200. Sacramento State, meanwhile, enters as a +17.5 underdog and is +760 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 43.5 total points.
Here’s my Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan prediction and college football pick for Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
Sacramento State vs Central Michigan Prediction
- Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan Pick: PICK
My Central Michigan vs. Sacramento State best bet is on PICK. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Sacramento State vs Central Michigan Odds
| Sacramento State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -110 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | +760 |
| Central Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -110 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | -1200 |
- Sacramento State vs Central Michigan point spread: Central Michigan -17.5 (-110), Sacramento State +17.5 (-110)
- Sacramento State vs Central Michiganover/under: 43.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Sacramento State vs Central Michigan moneyline: Sacramento State +760, Central Michigan -1200
Sacramento State vs Central Michigan College Football Preview
Sacramento State Hornets Betting Preview: Bad Team in a Bad Spot
Sacramento State heads to Mount Pleasant at 2-8 following a competitive 20-17 loss to Toledo.
But I'm having a difficult time trusting this offense to consistently generate points against Central Michigan, particularly with another potential change at quarterback.
The Hornets rank 138th nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA/Play at -0.22 and 132nd in Offensive Success Rate at just 35.1%.
The rushing numbers are even uglier. Sacramento State comes in at 136th in EPA/Rush at -0.10 while generating just 2.4 Line Yards per attempt, dead last nationally.
That lack of production was evident against Toledo, and frankly, the entire season thus far.
The Hornets managed just eight rushing yards on 31 attempts, averaging 0.3 yards per carry. The offense also surrendered five sacks.
The quarterback situation creates additional concerns.
Jackson Sharman exited the Toledo game with an injury after completing 8-of-15 passes for 113 yards and a touchdown. Brian Salazar Jr. replaced him, completing 12-of-18 passes for 103 yards.
Sharman's availability remains uncertain, while initial starter Carson Conklin has been sidelined with a throwing-arm injury. Even with Sharman available, the Hornets have struggled to generate explosive passing plays all season long.
Sacramento State ranks 138th in EPA/Dropback at -0.14 and 137th in offensive Explosiveness.
Wide receiver Raiden Brown provided 108 receiving yards against Toledo, but the broader offensive profile remains considerably less impressive.
Sacramento State is allowing Havoc on 19.2% of offensive snaps and generating only 3.2 Points Per Scoring Opportunity, ranking 128th nationally.
That's a brutal combination for a team trying to consistently finish drives. There's no chance I trust Sac State on the road in what's forecasted to be a colder evening. Another midweek road trip for the West Coast Hornets makes this an even more undesirable spot.
Central Michigan Chippewas Betting Preview: Defense to Play Key Role
Central Michigan enters Wednesday at 4-5 following a dominant 35-7 victory over Eastern Michigan.
While the Chippewas haven't been particularly impressive offensively throughout the season, their defense should stay strong here against the Hornets.
Eastern Michigan managed just 177 total yards, including 74 rushing yards, while converting only 1-of-10 third-down opportunities. Central Michigan also controlled possession for nearly 41 minutes.
That's particularly important against a Sacramento State offense already struggling to sustain drives. The Chippewas' season-long defensive numbers aren't elite across the board, which is why I'm not focused on that here.
Central Michigan is allowing +0.09 adjusted EPA/Play and a 46.2% Success Rate, which isn’t that impressive. However, the matchup-specific advantages are considerably more encouraging.
The Chippewas rank 40th nationally in EPA/Dropback allowed, while Sacramento State ranks last in passing efficiency. Central Michigan also comes in at eighth nationally in limiting Explosiveness, creating a substantial advantage against an offense that sits at 137th in that category.
The biggest concern is Central Michigan's rushing defense, which ranks 123rd in EPA/Rush allowed. However, Sacramento State's offensive line has been so ineffective that I don't assume the Hornets can exploit that weakness.
Central Michigan's offense should also help dictate the game script. Running back Nick Woodford rushed for 123 yards and three touchdowns against Eastern Michigan, while quarterback Jadyn Glasser completed 14-of-19 passes for 175 yards and a score.
The Chippewas ran the football 53 times and controlled the clock last week, which tells me they should have no issues replicating that game plan here.
I expect another dominant effort from the Chips, but I'd much rather fade the Hornets instead of laying a huge number.
Sacramento State vs Central Michigan Pick, Betting Analysis
Central Michigan opened around -14.5 before moving toward -18, while the total sits around 43.5.
That implies approximately 12.75 points for Sacramento State, which puts the team total under 13.5 slightly above the market's implications.
The biggest mismatch is Sacramento State's passing offense against Central Michigan's secondary.
The Hornets rank 138th in EPA/Dropback and 137th in Explosiveness, while the Chippewas rank 40th in EPA/Dropback allowed and eighth in limiting explosive plays.
Sacramento State also ranks 136th in EPA/Rush and dead last in Line Yards, leaving the Hornets without a reliable alternative if the passing attack struggles.
The Finishing Drives numbers further support the under. Sacramento State generates just 3.2 Points Per Scoring Opportunity and converts only 40% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns.
That's an enormous concern for an offense that already struggles to reach scoring territory.
The quarterback uncertainty only strengthens the handicap, particularly if Salazar is forced to start behind an offensive line that allowed five sacks against Toledo.
There's also a legitimate situational advantage for Central Michigan. The Chippewas return home after dominating Eastern Michigan with a run-heavy offense that controlled possession for nearly 41 minutes.
Sacramento State, meanwhile, is playing its third game in just 12 days and must travel across the country.
I expect Central Michigan to establish the ground game, limit possessions and force Sacramento State into obvious passing situations.
The concern at 13.5 is that two touchdowns beat us, so we need CMU to prevent explosives and make Sacramento State earn every scoring opportunity.
I'll trust the Hornets' offensive limitations and Central Michigan's ability to prevent explosives.
Pick: Sacramento State Team Total Under 13.5
