The San Diego State Aztecs take on the Nevada Wolf Pack in Reno, Nevada. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
San Diego State is favored by -7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -275. The total is set at 42 points.
Here’s my San Diego State vs. Nevada prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 11, 2025.
San Diego State vs Nevada Prediction
- San Diego State vs. Nevada Pick: Under 42 (-110, bet365)
My Nevada vs. San Diego State best bet is on the Under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
San Diego State vs Nevada Odds
| San Diego St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 42 -110o / -110u | -275 |
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 42 -110o / -110u | +225 |
- San Diego State vs Nevada point spread: San Diego State -7.5
- San Diego State vs Nevada over/under: 42
- San Diego State vs Nevada moneyline: San Diego State -275, Nevada +225
San Diego Statea vs Nevada Preview
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview: Offensive Revival
The emergence of a competent and, dare I say, explosive passing attack unlocks so much potential for Sean Lewis and his “Aztec Fast” offensive attack for San Diego State.
Last week, we saw quarterback Jayden Denegal complete 78% of his passes for 259 yards and a couple of passing scores. He did all of this on just 14 completions.
The ground game has been serviceable but not overly explosive for San Diego State. If this team wants to make a deep run in the Mountain West this season, the offensive line must open holes for the running backs to create more rush explosives.
Defensively, SDSU was rock solid last week as they held Colorado State to just 220 total yards through three quarters while opening up a 38-10 lead.
The defensive front did a great job getting to the quarterback and securing negative plays in the backfield.
SDSU has 10 sacks in the past three weeks and has effectively prohibited explosive plays, which has been the catalyst for shutting down their last three opponents.
Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview: Stingy Defense from the Pack
Nevada comes in off another close defeat against Fresno State last week.
The offense was overwhelmed by Fresno State’s defense as Nevada racked up just 246 total yards (131 of those yards in their final two drives) and fell behind 20-3 at the half.
Quarterback play was a significant struggle as both Chubba Purdy and AJ Bianco were ineffective, and third-stringer Carter Jones was inserted to create a spark.
Jones finished 11-for-15 passing and threw some nice passes in the second half. The run game was uninspiring and lacked the
ability to consistently gain yards successfully.
Defensively, Nevada played well situationally, limiting Fresno State to just 3-for-13 on third down and 5.5 yards per play, right at their season average.
This Nevada stop unit has performed well this season in limiting production on the ground against them.
Nevada is allowing just 3.9 yards per carry on the ground this season, and the Wolf Pack has allowed just five rushing touchdowns over the last four games.
This defense is keeping Nevada in games this season, while the offense continues to try to figure it out, and they will have to come up big this week against San Diego State if Nevada is to pull off the home upset.
San Diego State vs Nevada Pick, Betting Analysis
We have seen this line move to the other side of seven, as the opener was SDSU -6.5, and we currently sit at San Diego State -7.5 mostly everywhere in the market.
The value on the side is likely gone, but I think the Under has some value, currently sitting at 42.
Nevada's defense has shown up consistently for four consecutive weeks. Nevada grades out as the fourth-best defensive unit in the Mountain West, per PFF. This same source also grades Nevada as the top pass-rushing unit in the conference.
The Wolf Pack rank 28th nationally in limiting Explosiveness and have been stout against the pass this season. I am not willing to assume we see the deep shot connections from Denegal this weekend on the road.
The Nevada defensive line tends to give up a little on the ground, and I can see SDSU having a game plan to tote the rock here.
Nevada ranks 115th nationally in EPA Per Rush given up and 120th in Rush Play Success Rate defensively. San Diego State should be able to run the ball here. But while the Aztecs should have success, there will be very little explosiveness, leading to longer, time-consuming drives.
Nevada has also allowed just a 35% third-down conversion rate, and the Pack have been feisty defending in the red zone — only half of the opponent's red-zone trips have ended in touchdowns.
While the offense for San Diego State looked better last week, before that, the Aztecs only had three red-zone touchdowns all season against FBS competition.
Defensively, the Aztecs will control the line of scrimmage and severely limit this Nevada offensive attack. SDSU is allowing just three yards per carry on the ground this season, and the Aztecs rank 16th nationally Explosiveness allowed. Nevada ranks just 102nd nationally in Offensive Explosiveness and is now unsettled at quarterback.
I expect an inefficient offense from Nevada and a run-oriented attack for San Diego State in this one. Grab the under in this slow-burning grinder.
Pick: Under 42 (-110, bet365)
