Week 10 College Football Best Bets: Our Staff’s Top Picks for USC vs. Washington & More
Christopher Hook/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Arizona wide receiver Montana Lemonious-Craig.
To wrap up Week 10, our Action Network staff has Saturday college football best bets, including four picks for the night games — featuring Arizona vs. UCLA and more on November 4.
Dive in below to get the top picks and predictions to wrap up your college football betting card for the week.
Saturday Night College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday night's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | ||
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
| 7:45 p.m. | ||
| 10:30 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Kansas vs. Iowa State
This is such a good spot to fade Kansas. The Jayhawks are coming off arguably their biggest win in program history and have surely been celebrating since their upset victory over Oklahoma.
On Tuesday, the Jayhawks earned a spot in College Football Playoff ranks for the first time.
Iowa State started the season slowly after a gambling scandal really hurt its roster, but it’s won three straight games entering Saturday.
New quarterback Rocco Becht has settled in and has thrown nine touchdowns in the last five games. The running game has also figured things out, averaging 162.5 over the last four games after managing just 83.25 per outing in the first four.
Kansas has a terrible defense, ranking 126th in the country in Success Rate and 122nd at preventing Finishing Drives.
This matchup will be strength on strength, as the Kansas offense goes against this stout Iowa State defense.
The Cyclones’ defense ranks 31st in the nation in Success Rate and has been especially strong at defending the pass. The Clones are 10th in coverage grade at Pro Football Focus.
Cornerback T.J. Tampa is terrific and safety Jeremiah Cooper is second in the country with five interceptions.
Kansas is known for a unique and confusing offensive scheme, but since Lance Leipold took over, he hasn’t been able to confuse Matt Campbell’s defense. In the last two meetings, Kansas is averaging just 10.5 points and 257.5 total yards.
It’s normal for the public to be enticed when they see a ranked team as an underdog to an unranked team. Kansas is the 21st-best team in the country.
Since 2008, when an unranked team is a home favorite of -4 or less against a ranked team, they are 63-51-2 against the spread. There’s a reason Iowa State is favored here.
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Washington vs. USC
One of the great mysteries from the past few weeks of college football is the demise of the Washington Huskies. Both Stanford and Arizona State will not attend bowl games this postseason, signaling that the lone undefeated team in the Pac-12 should execute at a healthy level.
Not only did Washington not cover against the Cardinal and Sun Devils, but the Huskies struggled to win outright as quarterback Michael Penix Jr.'s Heisman odds fell out of the pole position.
Both Stanford and Arizona State implemented a light box, running two-man fronts with eight to nine defenders in coverage. Both defenses implemented a Cover 3, limiting Washington to just a single methodical drive through two weeks of offensive possessions.
Enter USC, a defense with warts that runs plenty of 2-3-6 and 2-4-5 personnel on defense.
There are not many statistical advantages for the Trojans defense, but the personnel is similar to that of Stanford and Arizona State.
Current Heisman winner Caleb Willams is back on track through his last two games. The soon-to-be No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft posted an 8:2 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play rate through the past two weeks.
Look for USC to cash in on a Washington team that’s the biggest domino in the Pac-12 ousting itself from the College Football Playoff.
LSU vs. Alabama
By Doug Ziefel
After their significant early-season loss to Texas, many wrote off the Alabama Crimson Tide. However, since then, they have rattled off six straight wins.
Now, with their season hanging in the balance, they get to host the No. 14 LSU Tigers. Nick Saban and his squad need this victory, so they’re going to stick to their strengths and shorten this ball game.
Bama has been very rush-heavy this year, as it’s kept the ball on the ground at the 18th-highest rate in the nation.
While the Tide haven’t been the most efficient with their rushing attack, the dynamic duo of Jase McClellan and Jalen Milroe is more than enough to keep the chains moving against an LSU defense that ranks 94th in yards per rush allowed.
On the other side of the ball, the ground game is going to be a war of strength against strength.
The Tigers have been one of the most efficient offenses in the country in terms of yards per play, but Bama is more than capable of clogging up the running game, as it ranks 15th in yards per rush allowed.
Despite the relatively high total, this matchup has all the makings of a defensive war that will be fought in the trenches. This tremendous rivalry will add another classic to the book as this game goes under the total.
Arizona vs. UCLA
I hate to beat a dead horse, but when will the market realize Arizona is good?
Until it does, I’m going to keep returning to the well.
Not only is Arizona 5-3 outright, it’s 7-1 ATS. The Wildcats demolished Washington State two weeks ago by 38 points as a 7.5-point road dog and last week, they beat a ranked Oregon State team as a three-point dog.
It doesn’t matter the time or the place, the Wildcats are covering machines, and yet they’re still disrespected by the books.
UCLA is a quality 6-2 team, but does it really deserve to be favored? The Bruins lost by double digits to that same Oregon State team Arizona beat, and their best win is arguably an eight-point victory over Washington State – the same Cougars that Arizona beat by more than five touchdowns.
The Bruins will be the best defense Arizona has faced this season, but the Wildcats have a surprisingly efficient offense. While UCLA leads the conference in run defense, Arizona’s offense is third nationally in Rush Success. Arizona’s run defense is no pushover either, ranking fourth in the conference with 100.4 yards allowed per game.
The Bruins have a really strong ground game, but so does Oregon State. The Wildcats managed to hold the Beavers to a season-low 131 rushing yards last week.
So, with two strong run defenses likely canceling out each other’s rushing success, this game will come down to quarterback play. And I’ll take Noah Fifita and Arizona’s stable of talented pass-catchers over Ethan Garbers every day of the week.
This could be your last chance this year to catch points with the Wildcats, so hop on the wagon while you can.
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